As seen on FiveThirtyEight ESPN Chalk ESPN Chalk ESPN Radio Nylon Calculus Raiders.com Lineups.com The Cauldron - Quoted in The New York Times ESPN Chalk ESPN Chalk FiveThirtyEight FiveThirtyEight - Shared by The New York Times The Washington Post ESPN Chalk FiveThirtyEight Football Outsiders Football Outsiders Football Outsiders SB Nation SB Nation Football Perspective Pregame.com
2020 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Chiefs-49ers win probabilities impact your chances
JAN 26 2020
How historically weird scores and Chiefs-49ers win probabilities impact your chances
JAN 26 2020
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
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FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
The Preseason Favorite Is a Good Bet to Lose the Super Bowl Analysis of preseason Super Bowl odds/results (2001 to present) AUG 22 2018 |
FOR ESPN CHALK
What We Learned from 16 Years of NFL Win Total Over/Unders Analysis of NFL win totals and over/under trends (2002 to present) SEP 5 2018 |
FOR ESPN CHALK
Midseason NFL Betting Review: What We've Learned First-half trends and noteworthy movement on the Super Bowl odds board NOV 9 2018 |
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Your NFL Wins Pool Draft Order Needs Some Adjusting
How to improve the "Bill Simmons draft order" AUG 29 2018 } UPDATED AUG 16 2019 |
Hard Knocks Affects NFL Teams Differently — Or Really Not At All
The Hard Knocks effect (2001 to present) AUG 21 2018 |
Now You Can Lose Money Betting on Sports Legally
The odds are stacked way the hell against you MAY 17 2018 |
NFL DRAFT AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL
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HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
NFL Draft History: Fun QB Draft Class Facts and Figures APR 25 2018 |
NFL RUSHING
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How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football? - Introduction
And other musings on rushing in the NFL MAY 4 2016 |
How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football? - Analysis
And other musings on rushing in the NFL MAY 4 2016 |
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ALSO APPEARED ON THE CAULDRON
The 2016 49ers Had the 3rd-Worst Run Defense in NFL History JAN 12 2017 |
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
O.J. Simpson's Pro Football Fame Was Mostly Based on Two Great Seasons JUN 15 2016 |
WEIRD NFL SCORES
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ALSO APPEARED ON THE CAULDRON
Not Your Granddaddy's Super Bowl Boxes How 2015's Weird Scores Change the Odds JAN 15 2016 |
SUPER BOWL SQUARES
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2019 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Rams win probabilities impact your chances JAN 24 2019 |
2018 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Eagles win probabilities impact your chances JAN 24 2018 |
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HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
2017 Super Bowl Squares Odds How historically weird scores and Patriots-Falcons win probabilities impact your chances JAN 24 2017 |
QUOTED ON FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
2016 Super Bowl Squares Odds How historically weird scores and Panthers-Broncos win probabilities impact your chances JAN 30 2016 |
NFL TRENDS
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Margins of Victory through NFL History
Despite weird scores, 2015 had the most normal margins of victory in history FEB 23 2016 |
A Complete History of NFL Points, Scores, and Scoring
(Super Bowl Box Redux: The Trends and Scores Behind the Story) JAN 27 2016 |
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NFL Margins of Victory in Four Charts
Games are close, scores are weird, common margins still reign JAN 31 2017 |
VEGAS
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ALSO APPEARED ON THE CAULDRON
Week 8's NFL Betting Lines Are the Lowest in at Least a Decade OCT 27 2016 |
THE OTHER FOOTBALL
SEARCHING FOR VALUE
NFL Picks and Futures (2018)
NFL Picks and Futures (2018)
Regular Season Against the Spread: 44-34-3 (+770) - Money Line: 26-54 (+1914, almost all dogs)
Net profit includes vigs - ATS picks "to win 100" - ML picks "risk 100"
Net profit includes vigs - ATS picks "to win 100" - ML picks "risk 100"
COIN VS. MACHINE
NFL Picks and Trends (2017)
NFL Picks and Trends (2017)
