As seen on FiveThirtyEight  ESPN Chalk  ESPN Chalk  ESPN Radio  Nylon Calculus  Raiders.com  Lineups.com  The Cauldron - Quoted in The New York Times  ESPN Chalk  ESPN Chalk  FiveThirtyEight - Shared by The New York Times  The Washington Post  ESPN Chalk  FiveThirtyEight  Football Outsiders  Football Outsiders  Football Outsiders  SB Nation  SB Nation  Football Perspective  Pregame.com
2019 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Rams win probabilities impact your chances
JAN 24 2019

Searching for Value in Super Bowl 53
Against the spread and moneyline picks based on expected value
FEB 1 2019
Searching for Value in Weekly NFL Picks and Futures
Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6 - Week 7 - ​Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12 - Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16 - Conference Championships & Super Bowl Futures - Super Bowl 53
Reg. Season ATS: 44-34-3 (+770) - Money Line: 26-54 (+1914, almost all dogs)
ATS picks "to win $100"  -  ML picks "risk $100"  -  No picks in Week 17
2018 NFL SEASON
FOR ESPN CHALK
Midseason NFL Betting Review: What We've Learned
First-half trends, featuring the Rams and Saints, Niners and Chiefs, and noteworthy movement on the Super Bowl odds board
​NOV 9 2018
FOR ESPN CHALK
What We Learned from 16 Years of NFL Win Total Over/Unders
Analysis of NFL win totals and over/under trends (2002 to present)
SEP 5 2018
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
The Preseason Favorite Is a Good Bet to Lose the Super Bowl
Analysis of preseason Super Bowl odds/results (2001 to present)
AUG 22 2018
ELDORADO
Your NFL Wins Pool Draft Order Needs Some Adjusting
How to improve the "Bill Simmons draft order"
AUG 29 2018
ELDORADO
Hard Knocks Affects NFL Teams Differently ​— Or Really Not At All
Analysis of the Hard Knocks effect (2001 to present)
AUG 21 2018
ELDORADO
​Now You Can Lose Money Betting on Sports Legally
The odds are stacked way the hell against you
​​MAY 17 2018
NFL DRAFT AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL
The Best Quarterback Draft Classes in NFL History
Or at least the most prolific in terms of era-adjusted yards
APR 25 2018
NFL Draft History: Fun QB Draft Class Facts and Figures
The best, worst, longest, shortest, most, fewest, and so forth
​APR 25 2018
Which College Football Teams Are Always Overrated in August?
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight
AUG 23 2017
THE OTHER FOOTBALL
NFL RUSHING
How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football? - Introduction 
And other musings on rushing in the NFL
​MAY 4 2016
How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football? - Analysis 
And other musings on rushing in the NFL
​MAY 4 2016
O.J. Simpson's Pro Football Fame Was Mostly Based on Two Great Seasons
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight
JUN 15 2016
SUPER BOWL SQUARES
2018 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Eagles win probabilities impact your chances
JAN 24 2018
2017 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Falcons win probabilities impact your chances
JAN 24 2017
2016 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Panthers-Broncos win probabilities impact your chances
JAN 30 2016
WEIRD NFL SCORES
NFL TRENDS
NFL Points & Scoring in Four Charts
Lots of passing, lots of kicking, lots of points
​JAN 31 2017
NFL Margins of Victory in Four Charts
Games are close, scores are weird, common margins still reign
​JAN 31 2017
NFL Rushing & Passing in Four Charts
Teams have never passed more and run less
​JAN 31 2017
Wow, Week 1 of the NFL Was Terrible
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight
SEP 12 2017
Margins of Victory through NFL History
Despite its weird scores, 2015 had the most "normal" margins of victory in NFL history
FEB 23 2016
A Complete History of NFL Points, Scores, and Scoring
(Super Bowl Box Redux: The Trends and Scores Behind the Story)
JAN 27 2016
VEGAS
Week 8's NFL Betting Lines Are the Lowest in at Least a Decade
​OCT 27 2016
Why Did Vegas Books Struggle for Part of the NFL Season?
Contributed perspective and analysis to David Purdum's story for ESPN Chalk
MAR 7 2017
The Oddity and Accuracy of Week 1's NFL Betting Lines
ELDORADO for Lineups.com
​SEP 8 2017
COIN VS. MACHINE: NFL PICKS & TRENDS
Super Bowl LII
The models love the Eagles plus the points. Do you trust it?
FEB 2 2018
Conference Championships
The models have had a pretty good playoffs so far
JAN 19 2018
Divisional Playoffs
The models mostly like the underdogs against the spread
JAN 12 2018
Wild Card Playoffs
JAN 6 2018
Week 17
DEC 30 2017
Week 16
DEC 23 2017
Week 15
DEC 16 2017
​Week 14
DEC 10 2017
Week 13
Big test with six 5-model unanimous picks
DEC 3 2017
Week 12
High lines and heavy favorites
NOV 22 2017
Week 11
5-model unanimous picks have won 70% of games against the spread
NOV 18 2017
Week 10
5-model unanimous picks continue to separate from the pack
NOV 9 2017
Week 9
3-model and 5-model unanimous picks went undefeated in Week 8
NOV 3 2017
Week 8
Last week had the most low-scoring blowouts in NFL history 
OCT 27 2017
Week 7
Not a single team is favored by 6.5 points or more - first time in 15+ years if it holds
OCT 19 2017
Week 6
3-model and 5-model unanimous picks have performed very well so far
OCT 13 2017
Week 5
Plus the importance of your betting lines - down to the half-point
OCT 5 2017
Week 4
Last week had the most high-scoring close games in NFL history
​SEP 28 2017
Week 3
SEP 21 2017
Week 2
SEP 14 2017
Week 1
You can't beat Vegas against the spread
SEP 10 2017

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