As seen on FiveThirtyEight Nylon Calculus The Paul Finebaum Show Raiders.com Lineups.com The Cauldron - Quoted on ESPN Chalk and FiveThirtyEight - Shared by Washington Post Football Outsiders Football Outsiders SB Nation SB Nation Football Perspective Pregame.com
Coin vs. Machine Super Bowl LII
The models love the Eagles plus the points. Do you trust it?
February 2, 2018
Your 2018 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Eagles win probabilities impact your chances
January 24, 2018
Coin vs. Machine NFL Conference Championships
The models have had a pretty good playoffs so far
January 19, 2018
Coin vs. Machine NFL Divisional Playoffs
The models mostly like the underdogs against the spread
January 12, 2018
Coin vs. Machine NFL Wild Card Playoffs
January 6, 2018
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 17
December 30, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 16
December 23, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 15
December 16, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 14
December 10, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 13
Big test this week with six 5-model unanimous picks ("best bets")
December 3, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 12
High lines and heavy favorites
November 22, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 11
5-model unanimous picks have won 70% of games against the spread
November 18, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 10
5-model unanimous picks continue to separate from the pack
November 9, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 9
3-model and 5-model unanimous picks went undefeated last week
November 3, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 8
Last week had the most low-scoring blowouts in NFL history
October 27, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 7
Not a single NFL team is favored by 6.5 points or more (a first?)
October 19, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 6
3-model and 5-model unanimous picks have performed very well so far
October 13, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 5
Plus the importance of your betting lines (down to the half-point)
October 5, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 4
Last week had the most high-scoring close games in NFL history
September 28, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 3
September 21, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 2
September 14, 2017
Wow, Week 1 of the NFL Was Terrible
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight
September 12, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 1
You can't beat Vegas against the spread
September 10, 2017
The Oddity and Accuracy of Week 1's NFL Betting Lines
ELDORADO for Lineups.com
September 8, 2017
Which College Football Teams Are Always Overrated in August?
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight
August 23, 2017
Why Did Vegas Books Struggle for Part of the NFL Season?
Contributed perspective and analysis to David Purdum's story for ESPN Chalk
March 7, 2017
NFL Points and Scoring in Four Charts
Lots of passing, lots of kicking, lots of points
January 31, 2017
NFL Margins of Victory in Four Charts
Games are close, scores are weird, common margins still reign
January 31, 2017
NFL Rushing and Passing in Four Charts
Teams have never passed more or run less
January 31, 2017
Your 2017 Super Bowl Box (Squares) Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Falcons win probabilities impact your chances
January 24, 2017
The 2016 San Francisco 49ers finished with the third-worst run defense in NFL history
January 12, 2017
The 2016 San Francisco 49ers are on pace to have the worst run defense in NFL history
November 13, 2016
Week 8's NFL betting lines are the lowest in at least a decade
October 27, 2016
O.J. Simpson's Pro Football Fame Was Mostly Based on Two Great Seasons
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight
June 15, 2016
How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football?
And other musings on rushing in the NFL
May 4, 2016
The Best Running Backs and Rushing Seasons in NFL History
May 4, 2016
Historical NFL Rushing Trends and Stat Adjustment Considerations
May 4, 2016
Margins of Victory through NFL History
Despite its weird scores, 2015 had the most "normal" margins of victory in NFL history
February 23, 2016
Your Super Bowl Box Cheat Sheet
Reflecting 2015's Weird Scores and Carolina-Denver Win Probabilities
January 30, 2016
A Complete History of NFL Points, Scores, and Scoring
(Super Bowl Box Redux: The Trends and Scores Behind the Story)
January 27, 2016
Not Your Granddaddy's Super Bowl Boxes
How 2015's Weird Scores Change the Odds
Updated: February 1, 2016 | Original: January 15, 2016
NFL Kickers: Playoff Heroes or Goats, More So Now Than Ever Before
January 8, 2016
Weird Score Redux: What's to Blame, Game by Game?
Updated: January 10, 2016 | Original: December 8, 2015
Why 2015's NFL Scores Are the Weirdest in History
Updated: January 8, 2016 | Original: November 23, 2015
The models love the Eagles plus the points. Do you trust it?
February 2, 2018
Your 2018 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Eagles win probabilities impact your chances
January 24, 2018
Coin vs. Machine NFL Conference Championships
The models have had a pretty good playoffs so far
January 19, 2018
Coin vs. Machine NFL Divisional Playoffs
The models mostly like the underdogs against the spread
January 12, 2018
Coin vs. Machine NFL Wild Card Playoffs
January 6, 2018
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 17
December 30, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 16
December 23, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 15
December 16, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 14
December 10, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 13
Big test this week with six 5-model unanimous picks ("best bets")
December 3, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 12
High lines and heavy favorites
November 22, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 11
5-model unanimous picks have won 70% of games against the spread
November 18, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 10
5-model unanimous picks continue to separate from the pack
November 9, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 9
3-model and 5-model unanimous picks went undefeated last week
November 3, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 8
Last week had the most low-scoring blowouts in NFL history
October 27, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 7
Not a single NFL team is favored by 6.5 points or more (a first?)
October 19, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 6
3-model and 5-model unanimous picks have performed very well so far
October 13, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 5
Plus the importance of your betting lines (down to the half-point)
October 5, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 4
Last week had the most high-scoring close games in NFL history
September 28, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 3
September 21, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 2
September 14, 2017
Wow, Week 1 of the NFL Was Terrible
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight
September 12, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 1
You can't beat Vegas against the spread
September 10, 2017
The Oddity and Accuracy of Week 1's NFL Betting Lines
ELDORADO for Lineups.com
September 8, 2017
Which College Football Teams Are Always Overrated in August?
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight
August 23, 2017
Why Did Vegas Books Struggle for Part of the NFL Season?
Contributed perspective and analysis to David Purdum's story for ESPN Chalk
March 7, 2017
NFL Points and Scoring in Four Charts
Lots of passing, lots of kicking, lots of points
January 31, 2017
NFL Margins of Victory in Four Charts
Games are close, scores are weird, common margins still reign
January 31, 2017
NFL Rushing and Passing in Four Charts
Teams have never passed more or run less
January 31, 2017
Your 2017 Super Bowl Box (Squares) Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Falcons win probabilities impact your chances
January 24, 2017
The 2016 San Francisco 49ers finished with the third-worst run defense in NFL history
January 12, 2017
The 2016 San Francisco 49ers are on pace to have the worst run defense in NFL history
November 13, 2016
Week 8's NFL betting lines are the lowest in at least a decade
October 27, 2016
O.J. Simpson's Pro Football Fame Was Mostly Based on Two Great Seasons
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight
June 15, 2016
How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football?
And other musings on rushing in the NFL
May 4, 2016
The Best Running Backs and Rushing Seasons in NFL History
May 4, 2016
Historical NFL Rushing Trends and Stat Adjustment Considerations
May 4, 2016
Margins of Victory through NFL History
Despite its weird scores, 2015 had the most "normal" margins of victory in NFL history
February 23, 2016
Your Super Bowl Box Cheat Sheet
Reflecting 2015's Weird Scores and Carolina-Denver Win Probabilities
January 30, 2016
A Complete History of NFL Points, Scores, and Scoring
(Super Bowl Box Redux: The Trends and Scores Behind the Story)
January 27, 2016
Not Your Granddaddy's Super Bowl Boxes
How 2015's Weird Scores Change the Odds
Updated: February 1, 2016 | Original: January 15, 2016
NFL Kickers: Playoff Heroes or Goats, More So Now Than Ever Before
January 8, 2016
Weird Score Redux: What's to Blame, Game by Game?
Updated: January 10, 2016 | Original: December 8, 2015
Why 2015's NFL Scores Are the Weirdest in History
Updated: January 8, 2016 | Original: November 23, 2015
