As seen on FiveThirtyEight ESPN Chalk ESPN Chalk ESPN Radio Nylon Calculus Raiders.com Lineups.com The Cauldron - Quoted in The New York Times ESPN Chalk ESPN Chalk FiveThirtyEight FiveThirtyEight - Shared by The New York Times The Washington Post ESPN Chalk FiveThirtyEight Football Outsiders Football Outsiders Football Outsiders SB Nation SB Nation Football Perspective Pregame.com
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
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FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
The Preseason Favorite Is a Good Bet to Lose the Super Bowl Analysis of preseason Super Bowl odds/results (2001 to present) AUG 22 2018 |
FOR ESPN CHALK
What We Learned from 16 Years of NFL Win Total Over/Unders Analysis of NFL win totals and over/under trends (2002 to present) SEP 5 2018 |
FOR ESPN CHALK
Midseason NFL Betting Review: What We've Learned First-half trends and noteworthy movement on the Super Bowl odds board NOV 9 2018 |
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Your NFL Wins Pool Draft Order Needs Some Adjusting
How to improve the "Bill Simmons draft order" AUG 29 2018 } UPDATED AUG 16 2019 |
Hard Knocks Affects NFL Teams Differently — Or Really Not At All
The Hard Knocks effect (2001 to present) AUG 21 2018 |
Now You Can Lose Money Betting on Sports Legally
The odds are stacked way the hell against you MAY 17 2018 |
NFL DRAFT AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL
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HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
NFL Draft History: Fun QB Draft Class Facts and Figures APR 25 2018 |
NFL RUSHING
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How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football? - Introduction
And other musings on rushing in the NFL MAY 4 2016 |
How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football? - Analysis
And other musings on rushing in the NFL MAY 4 2016 |
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ALSO APPEARED ON THE CAULDRON
The 2016 49ers Had the 3rd-Worst Run Defense in NFL History JAN 12 2017 |
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
O.J. Simpson's Pro Football Fame Was Mostly Based on Two Great Seasons JUN 15 2016 |
WEIRD NFL SCORES
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ALSO APPEARED ON THE CAULDRON
Not Your Granddaddy's Super Bowl Boxes How 2015's Weird Scores Change the Odds JAN 15 2016 |
SUPER BOWL SQUARES
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2019 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Rams win probabilities impact your chances JAN 24 2019 |
2018 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Eagles win probabilities impact your chances JAN 24 2018 |
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HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
2017 Super Bowl Squares Odds How historically weird scores and Patriots-Falcons win probabilities impact your chances JAN 24 2017 |
QUOTED ON FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
2016 Super Bowl Squares Odds How historically weird scores and Panthers-Broncos win probabilities impact your chances JAN 30 2016 |
NFL TRENDS
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Margins of Victory through NFL History
Despite weird scores, 2015 had the most normal margins of victory in history FEB 23 2016 |
A Complete History of NFL Points, Scores, and Scoring
(Super Bowl Box Redux: The Trends and Scores Behind the Story) JAN 27 2016 |
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NFL Margins of Victory in Four Charts
Games are close, scores are weird, common margins still reign JAN 31 2017 |
VEGAS
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ALSO APPEARED ON THE CAULDRON
Week 8's NFL Betting Lines Are the Lowest in at Least a Decade OCT 27 2016 |
THE OTHER FOOTBALL
SEARCHING FOR VALUE
NFL Picks and Futures (2018)
NFL Picks and Futures (2018)
Regular Season Against the Spread: 44-34-3 (+770) - Money Line: 26-54 (+1914, almost all dogs)
Net profit includes vigs - ATS picks "to win 100" - ML picks "risk 100"
Net profit includes vigs - ATS picks "to win 100" - ML picks "risk 100"
COIN VS. MACHINE
NFL Picks and Trends (2017)
NFL Picks and Trends (2017)
