As seen on FiveThirtyEight ESPN Chalk ESPN Chalk ESPN Radio Nylon Calculus Raiders.com Lineups.com The Cauldron - Quoted in The New York Times ESPN Chalk ESPN Chalk FiveThirtyEight - Shared by The New York Times The Washington Post ESPN Chalk FiveThirtyEight Football Outsiders Football Outsiders Football Outsiders SB Nation SB Nation Football Perspective Pregame.com
2018 NFL SEASON
ELDORADO
Searching for Value in Weekly NFL Picks and Futures
Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6 - Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12 - Week 13 - Week 14
Year-to-Date ATS: 35-27-3 (+530) - Money Line: 22-43 (+1534, almost all dogs)
DEC 6 2018
Searching for Value in Weekly NFL Picks and Futures
Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6 - Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12 - Week 13 - Week 14
Year-to-Date ATS: 35-27-3 (+530) - Money Line: 22-43 (+1534, almost all dogs)
DEC 6 2018
FOR ESPN CHALK
Midseason NFL Betting Review: What We've Learned
First-half trends, featuring the Rams and Saints, Niners and Chiefs, and noteworthy movement on the Super Bowl odds board
NOV 9 2018
Midseason NFL Betting Review: What We've Learned
First-half trends, featuring the Rams and Saints, Niners and Chiefs, and noteworthy movement on the Super Bowl odds board
NOV 9 2018
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FOR ESPN CHALK
What We Learned from 16 Years of NFL Win Total Over/Unders Analysis of NFL win totals and over/under trends (2002 to present) SEP 5 2018 |
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
The Preseason Favorite Is a Good Bet to Lose the Super Bowl Analysis of preseason Super Bowl odds/results (2001 to present) AUG 22 2018 |
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ELDORADO
Your NFL Wins Pool Draft Order Needs Some Adjusting How to improve the "Bill Simmons draft order" AUG 29 2018 |
ELDORADO
Hard Knocks Affects NFL Teams Differently — Or Really Not At All Analysis of the Hard Knocks effect (2001 to present) AUG 21 2018 |
ELDORADO
Now You Can Lose Money Betting on Sports Legally The odds are stacked way the hell against you MAY 17 2018 |
NFL DRAFT AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL
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The Best Quarterback Draft Classes in NFL History
Or at least the most prolific in terms of era-adjusted yards APR 25 2018 |
NFL Draft History: Fun QB Draft Class Facts and Figures
The best, worst, longest, shortest, most, fewest, and so forth APR 25 2018 |
THE OTHER FOOTBALL
NFL RUSHING
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How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football? - Introduction
And other musings on rushing in the NFL MAY 4 2016 |
How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football? - Analysis
And other musings on rushing in the NFL MAY 4 2016 |
O.J. Simpson's Pro Football Fame Was Mostly Based on Two Great Seasons
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight JUN 15 2016 |
SUPER BOWL SQUARES
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2018 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Eagles win probabilities impact your chances JAN 24 2018 |
2017 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Falcons win probabilities impact your chances JAN 24 2017 |
2016 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Panthers-Broncos win probabilities impact your chances JAN 30 2016 |
WEIRD NFL SCORES
NFL TRENDS
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NFL Margins of Victory in Four Charts
Games are close, scores are weird, common margins still reign JAN 31 2017 |
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Margins of Victory through NFL History
Despite its weird scores, 2015 had the most "normal" margins of victory in NFL history FEB 23 2016 |
A Complete History of NFL Points, Scores, and Scoring
(Super Bowl Box Redux: The Trends and Scores Behind the Story) JAN 27 2016 |
VEGAS
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Why Did Vegas Books Struggle for Part of the NFL Season?
Contributed perspective and analysis to David Purdum's story for ESPN Chalk MAR 7 2017 |
COIN VS. MACHINE: NFL PICKS & TRENDS
