As seen on FiveThirtyEight  ESPN Chalk  ESPN Chalk  ESPN Radio  Nylon Calculus  Raiders.com  Lineups.com  The Cauldron - Quoted in The New York Times  ESPN Chalk  ESPN Chalk  FiveThirtyEight  FiveThirtyEight - Shared by The New York Times  The Washington Post  ESPN Chalk  FiveThirtyEight  Football Outsiders  Football Outsiders  Football Outsiders  SB Nation  SB Nation  Football Perspective  Pregame.com
SEARCHING FOR VALUE
NFL Picks and Futures (2022)
Through Week 10
Tier 1/2 Moneyline: 7-11-1 (+1165 on 1800 risked)
Weekly Top 5 Moneyline: 21-28-1 (+1714 on 4900 risked)
Weekly Top 5 Against the Spread: 29-21-0 (+1010 on 5500 risked)
 Tier 1/2 are all modest to heavy underdogs - Almost all Weekly Top 5 are underdogs - Assumes 100 per ML play - 110 to win 100 per ATS play
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
The Preseason Favorite Is a Good Bet to Lose the Super Bowl
Analysis of preseason Super Bowl odds/results (2001 to present)
AUG 22 2018
FOR ESPN CHALK
What We Learned from 16 Years of NFL Win Total Over/Unders
Analysis of NFL win totals and over/under trends (2002 to present)
SEP 5 2018
FOR ESPN CHALK
Midseason NFL Betting Review: What We've Learned
First-half trends and noteworthy movement on the Super Bowl odds board
​NOV 9 2018
Your NFL Wins Pool Draft Order Needs Some Adjusting
How to improve the "Bill Simmons draft order"
AUG 29 2018 } UPDATED AUG 16 2019
​​Hard Knocks Affects NFL Teams Differently ​— Or Really Not At All
The Hard Knocks effect (2001 to present)
AUG 21 2018
​Now You Can Lose Money Betting on Sports Legally
The odds are stacked way the hell against you
​MAY 17 2018
NFL DRAFT AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL
HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
​The Best Quarterback Draft Classes in NFL History
APR 25 2018
HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
NFL Draft History: Fun QB Draft Class Facts and Figures
​APR 25 2018
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
Which College Football Teams Are Always Overrated in August?
AUG 23 2017
NFL RUSHING
How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football? - Introduction
And other musings on rushing in the NFL
​MAY 4 2016
How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football? - Analysis 
And other musings on rushing in the NFL
​MAY 4 2016
WEIRD NFL SCORES
HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
Why 2015's NFL Scores Are the Weirdest in History
​NOV 23 2015
HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
​Weird Score Redux: What's to Blame, Game by Game?
​​DEC 8 2015
ALSO APPEARED ON THE CAULDRON
Not Your Granddaddy's Super Bowl Boxes
How 2015's Weird Scores Change the Odds
​JAN 15 2016
SUPER BOWL SQUARES
2021 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Chiefs-Bucs win probabilities impact your chances
FEB 2 2021
2019 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Rams win probabilities impact your chances
JAN 24 2019
HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
2017 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Falcons win probabilities impact your chances
JAN 24 2017
2020 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Chiefs-49ers win probabilities impact your chances
JAN 26 2020
2018 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Eagles win probabilities impact your chances
JAN 24 2018
QUOTED ON FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
​2016 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Panthers-Broncos win probabilities impact your chances
JAN 30 2016
NFL TRENDS
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
Wow, Week 1 of the NFL Was Terrible
SEP 12 2017
Margins of Victory through NFL History
Despite weird scores, 2015 had the most normal margins of victory in history
FEB 23 2016
A Complete History of NFL Points, Scores, and Scoring
(Super Bowl Box Redux: The Trends and Scores Behind the Story)
JAN 27 2016
NFL Points & Scoring in Four Charts
Lots of passing, lots of kicking, lots of points
​JAN 31 2017
NFL Margins of Victory in Four Charts
Games are close, scores are weird, common margins still reign
​JAN 31 2017
NFL Rushing & Passing in Four Charts
Teams have never passed more and run less
​JAN 31 2017
VEGAS
CULTURE
​​Al Pacino vs. Robert De Niro
Comparing their careers and ranking their films
MAR 4 2018
​​Hamilton Is Diverse, But Is Its Audience?
​MAR 3 2016
God, Love, Jeter & Santa Claus
SEP 28 2014
AL PACINO VS. ROBERT DE NIRO
Tale of the Tape
MAR 4 2018
​Box Office Receipts
​MAR 4 2018
​Audience Ratings
​MAR 4 2018
​"Godfather Ratings"
​MAR 4 2018
Genre Comparison
​MAR 4 2018
POLITICS
The Rise and          of Rudy Giuliani
DEC 7 2016
Irony Trumps Hate 
Andrew Jackson is the only president with fewer American-born ancestors than Donald Trump
​NOV 23 2016
Don't Throw Away Your Old Debate Ties
Tie colors and memorable moments in presidential debate fashion history
OCT 18 2016
​How TV Networks Color-Coded the Parties on Election Night
The history of red states and blue states on TV
​​SEP 21 2016
This Is the Oldest U.S. Presidential Election in History - Or Is It?
Candidates' ages relative to life expectancy, from 1789 to 2016
​AUG 5 2016
​The Oldest and Youngest U.S. Presidential Candidates in History
Relative to life expectancy
​AUG 5 2016
COLLEGE BASKETBALL'S DOME EFFECT
Video: College Basketball's Dome Effect Is A Myth
In partnership with John Manuel Silva
​MAR 29 2018
Reminder: College Basketball's Dome Effect Is A Myth
A shorter, sweeter, updated summary for 2018
​MAR 21 2018
Reminder: College Basketball's Dome Effect Is A Myth
A shorter, sweeter, updated summary for 2017
​MAR 3 2017
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE WASHINGTON POST
Teams Score Fewer Points in Domes - But Not for the Reasons You Think
​MAR 30 2017
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
The Dome Effect Isn't Real; The NRG Effect Is Complicated
​APR 2 2016
THE ORIGINAL DEBUNKING
​Is The Dome Effect Real?
Do NCAA tournament teams shoot poorly in big domed football stadiums?
​MAR 16 2016​
NBA DRAFT AND CHAMPIONS
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
The Knicks Can't Even Get The Draft Lottery Right
MAY 16 2017
When You Wish Upon A Star (I)
​The Star Makeup of NBA Championship Teams
MAY 19 2016
When You Wish Upon A Star (II)
​Noteworthy Champions / Most and Fewest Stars / Big 4s, 3s, and 2s 
MAY 19 2016
NBA ODDS AND WIN TOTALS
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT​
Vegas Thinks The NBA Title Race Is As Wide Open As It's Been In A Long Time
Analysis of preseason NBA championship odds/results (1984-85 to present)
OCT 25 2019
QUOTED ON ESPN CHALK
The Projected Impact of the 2018 NBA Offseason
Plus win-total over/under trends, featuring LeBron James, the Lakers and Cavs, Warriors and Hawks, Spurs and Knicks
OCT 11 2018
NBA ALL-STAR GAME
U.S. OLYMPIC BASKETBALL
The 2016 U.S. Men's National Team Is an Average Version of Itself
And it's below average for a U.S. Olympic team. Should we worry?
​JUL 10 2016
Appendix I: Quality, Experience, and Continuity of USMNBTs since 1992 
A little more experience and continuity detail than the main story
​JAN 20 2017
Appendix II: A Closer Look at the 1992, 2004, and 2016 USMNBTs
There's enough of a hint of 2004 on the 2016 roster to conjure up some worry
​JUL 10 2016
FIFA WORLD CUP
SEARCHING FOR VALUE
NFL Picks and Futures (2018)
Regular Season Against the Spread: 44-34-3 (+770) - Money Line: 26-54 (+1914, almost all dogs)
Net profit includes vigs  -  ATS picks "to win 100"  -  ML picks "risk 100"
Super Bowl LIII
FEB 1 2019
Conference Championships
JAN 19 2019
Week 16
DEC 19 2018
Week 15
DEC 15 2018
Week 14
DEC 6 2018
Week 13
DEC 1 2018
Week 12
NOV 21 2018
Week 11
NOV 18 2018
Week 10
NOV 11 2018
Week 9
OCT 31 2018
Week 8
OCT 27 2018
Week 7
OCT 18 2018
Week 6
OCT 11 2018
Week 5
OCT 6 2018
Week 4
SEP 27 2018
Week 3
SEP 22 2018
Week 2
SEP 16 2018
Week 1
SEP 9 2018
COIN VS. MACHINE
NFL Picks and Trends (2017)
Super Bowl LII
The models love the Eagles plus the points. Do you trust it?
FEB 2 2018
Conference Championships
The models have had a pretty good playoffs so far
JAN 19 2018
Divisional Playoffs
The models mostly like the underdogs against the spread
JAN 12 2018
Wild Card Playoffs
JAN 6 2018
Week 17
DEC 30 2017
Week 16
DEC 23 2017
Week 15
DEC 16 2017
​Week 14
DEC 10 2017
Week 13
Big test with six 5-model unanimous picks
DEC 3 2017
Week 12
High lines and heavy favorites
NOV 22 2017
Week 11
5-model unanimous picks have won 70% of games against the spread
NOV 18 2017
Week 10
5-model unanimous picks continue to separate from the pack
NOV 9 2017
Week 9
3-model and 5-model unanimous picks went undefeated in Week 8
NOV 3 2017
Week 8
Last week had the most low-scoring blowouts in NFL history 
OCT 27 2017
Week 7
Not a single team is favored by 6.5 points or more - first time in 15+ years if it holds
OCT 19 2017
Week 6
3-model and 5-model unanimous picks have performed very well so far
OCT 13 2017
Week 5
Plus the importance of your betting lines - down to the half-point
OCT 5 2017
Week 4
Last week had the most high-scoring close games in NFL history
​SEP 28 2017
Week 3
SEP 21 2017
Week 2
SEP 14 2017
Week 1
You can't beat Vegas against the spread
SEP 10 2017
​​
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