As seen on FiveThirtyEight ESPN Chalk ESPN Chalk ESPN Radio Nylon Calculus Raiders.com Lineups.com The Cauldron - Quoted in The New York Times ESPN Chalk ESPN Chalk FiveThirtyEight - Shared by The New York Times The Washington Post ESPN Chalk FiveThirtyEight Football Outsiders Football Outsiders Football Outsiders SB Nation SB Nation Football Perspective Pregame.com
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
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FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
The Preseason Favorite Is a Good Bet to Lose the Super Bowl Analysis of preseason Super Bowl odds/results (2001 to present) AUG 22 2018 |
FOR ESPN CHALK
What We Learned from 16 Years of NFL Win Total Over/Unders Analysis of NFL win totals and over/under trends (2002 to present) SEP 5 2018 |
FOR ESPN CHALK
Midseason NFL Betting Review: What We've Learned First-half trends and noteworthy movement on the Super Bowl odds board NOV 9 2018 |
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Your NFL Wins Pool Draft Order Needs Some Adjusting
How to improve the "Bill Simmons draft order" AUG 29 2018 } UPDATED AUG 16 2019 |
Hard Knocks Affects NFL Teams Differently — Or Really Not At All
The Hard Knocks effect (2001 to present) AUG 21 2018 |
Now You Can Lose Money Betting on Sports Legally
The odds are stacked way the hell against you MAY 17 2018 |
NFL DRAFT AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL
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HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
NFL Draft History: Fun QB Draft Class Facts and Figures APR 25 2018 |
NFL RUSHING
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How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football? - Introduction
And other musings on rushing in the NFL MAY 4 2016 |
How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football? - Analysis
And other musings on rushing in the NFL MAY 4 2016 |
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ALSO APPEARED ON THE CAULDRON
The 2016 49ers Had the 3rd-Worst Run Defense in NFL History JAN 12 2017 |
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
O.J. Simpson's Pro Football Fame Was Mostly Based on Two Great Seasons JUN 15 2016 |
WEIRD NFL SCORES
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ALSO APPEARED ON THE CAULDRON
Not Your Granddaddy's Super Bowl Boxes How 2015's Weird Scores Change the Odds JAN 15 2016 |
SUPER BOWL SQUARES
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2019 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Rams win probabilities impact your chances JAN 24 2019 |
2018 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Eagles win probabilities impact your chances JAN 24 2018 |
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HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
2017 Super Bowl Squares Odds How historically weird scores and Patriots-Falcons win probabilities impact your chances JAN 24 2017 |
QUOTED ON FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
2016 Super Bowl Squares Odds How historically weird scores and Panthers-Broncos win probabilities impact your chances JAN 30 2016 |
NFL TRENDS
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Margins of Victory through NFL History
Despite weird scores, 2015 had the most normal margins of victory in history FEB 23 2016 |
A Complete History of NFL Points, Scores, and Scoring
(Super Bowl Box Redux: The Trends and Scores Behind the Story) JAN 27 2016 |
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NFL Margins of Victory in Four Charts
Games are close, scores are weird, common margins still reign JAN 31 2017 |
VEGAS
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ALSO APPEARED ON THE CAULDRON
Week 8's NFL Betting Lines Are the Lowest in at Least a Decade OCT 27 2016 |
CULTURE
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HIGHLIGHTED BY THE NEW YORK TIMES
Spring 2018 Was One of New York City's Least Springy Springs JUN 25 2018 |
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The Lost Art of the Shitter Read
DEC 5 2018 |
AL PACINO VS. ROBERT DE NIRO
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Tale of the Tape
MAR 4 2018 |
POLITICS
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Irony Trumps Hate
Andrew Jackson is the only president with fewer American-born ancestors than Donald Trump NOV 23 2016 |
Don't Throw Away Your Old Debate Ties
Tie colors and memorable moments in presidential debate fashion history OCT 18 2016 |
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How TV Networks Color-Coded the Parties on Election Night
The history of red states and blue states on TV SEP 21 2016 |
This Is the Oldest U.S. Presidential Election in History - Or Is It?
Candidates' ages relative to life expectancy, from 1789 to 2016 AUG 5 2016 |
The Oldest and Youngest U.S. Presidential Candidates in History
Relative to life expectancy AUG 5 2016 |
COLLEGE BASKETBALL'S DOME EFFECT
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Reminder: College Basketball's Dome Effect Is A Myth
A shorter, sweeter, updated summary for 2018 MAR 21 2018 |
Reminder: College Basketball's Dome Effect Is A Myth
A shorter, sweeter, updated summary for 2017 MAR 3 2017 |
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HIGHLIGHTED BY THE WASHINGTON POST
Teams Score Fewer Points in Domes - But Not for the Reasons You Think MAR 30 2017 |
THE ORIGINAL DEBUNKING
Is The Dome Effect Real? Do NCAA tournament teams shoot poorly in big domed football stadiums? MAR 16 2016 |
NBA DRAFT AND CHAMPIONS
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When You Wish Upon A Star (II)
Noteworthy Champions / Most and Fewest Stars / Big 4s, 3s, and 2s MAY 19 2016 |
NBA WIN TOTALS
QUOTED ON ESPN CHALK
The Projected Impact of the 2018 NBA Offseason
Plus win-total over/under trends, featuring LeBron James, the Lakers and Cavs, Warriors and Hawks, Spurs and Knicks
OCT 11 2018
The Projected Impact of the 2018 NBA Offseason
Plus win-total over/under trends, featuring LeBron James, the Lakers and Cavs, Warriors and Hawks, Spurs and Knicks
OCT 11 2018
NBA ALL-STAR GAME
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Kobe Bryant Is the 2nd Worst All-Star Starter in NBA History - Behind Himself
But we don't need stats to know he's a star FEB 11 2016 |
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The Biggest Snubs in NBA All-Star Game Voting History
(Starter snubs and top 5-10-15 vote snubs) FEB 11 2016 |
U.S. OLYMPIC BASKETBALL
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The 2016 U.S. Men's National Team Is an Average Version of Itself
And it's below average for a U.S. Olympic team. Should we worry? JUL 10 2016 |
Appendix I: Quality, Experience, and Continuity of USMNBTs since 1992
A little more experience and continuity detail than the main story JAN 20 2017 |
Appendix II: A Closer Look at the 1992, 2004, and 2016 USMNBTs
There's enough of a hint of 2004 on the 2016 roster to conjure up some worry JUL 10 2016 |
FIFA WORLD CUP
SEARCHING FOR VALUE
NFL Picks and Futures (2018)
NFL Picks and Futures (2018)
Regular Season Against the Spread: 44-34-3 (+770) - Money Line: 26-54 (+1914, almost all dogs)
Net profit includes vigs - ATS picks "to win 100" - ML picks "risk 100"
Net profit includes vigs - ATS picks "to win 100" - ML picks "risk 100"
COIN VS. MACHINE
NFL Picks and Trends (2017)
NFL Picks and Trends (2017)
