As seen on FiveThirtyEight Nylon Calculus The Paul Finebaum Show Raiders.com Lineups.com The Cauldron - Quoted on ESPN Chalk and FiveThirtyEight - Shared by Washington Post Football Outsiders Football Outsiders SB Nation SB Nation Football Perspective Pregame.com
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Just How Much Does Tiger Affect TV Ratings for the Masters?
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight
April 6, 2018
Video: College Basketball's Dome Effect Is A Myth
In partnership with John Manuel Silva. More entertaining than the text!
March 29, 2018
Reminder: College Basketball's Dome Effect Is A Myth
Updated and adapted for 2018
March 21, 2018
Get Me Off This ******* Plane!
How long does it take to exit an airplane?
March 14, 2018
Al Pacino vs. Robert De Niro
I. Introduction (Tale of the Tape)
II. Box Office Receipts
III. Online Audience Ratings
IV. "The Godfather Ratings"
V. Film Genres Over Time
March 4, 2018
Coin vs. Machine Super Bowl LII
The models love the Eagles plus the points. Do you trust it?
February 2, 2018
Your 2018 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Eagles win probabilities impact your chances
January 24, 2018
Coin vs. Machine NFL Conference Championships
The models have had a pretty good playoffs so far
January 19, 2018
Coin vs. Machine NFL Divisional Playoffs
The models mostly like the underdogs against the spread
January 12, 2018
Coin vs. Machine NFL Wild Card Playoffs
January 6, 2018
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 17
December 30, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 16
December 23, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 15
December 16, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 14
December 10, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 13
Big test this week with six 5-model unanimous picks ("best bets")
December 3, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 12
High lines and heavy favorites
November 22, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 11
5-model unanimous picks have won 70% of games against the spread
November 18, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 10
5-model unanimous picks continue to separate from the pack
November 9, 2017
NBA Win Projections and Offseason Improvement
- The Projected Impact of the 2017 NBA Offseason
- Vegas's Favorite and Least Favorite NBA Franchises
- The Most Overrated and Underrated NBA Franchises
November 6, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 9
3-model and 5-model unanimous picks went undefeated last week
November 3, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 8
Last week had the most low-scoring blowouts in NFL history
October 27, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 7
Not a single NFL team is favored by 6.5 points or more (a first?)
October 19, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 6
3-model and 5-model unanimous picks have performed very well so far
October 13, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 5
Plus the importance of your betting lines (down to the half-point)
October 5, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 4
Last week had the most high-scoring close games in NFL history
September 28, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 3
September 21, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 2
September 14, 2017
Wow, Week 1 of the NFL Was Terrible
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight
September 12, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 1
You can't beat Vegas against the spread
September 10, 2017
The Oddity and Accuracy of Week 1's NFL Betting Lines
ELDORADO for Lineups.com
September 8, 2017
Which College Football Teams Are Always Overrated in August?
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight
August 23, 2017
The Knicks Can't Even Get The Draft Lottery Right
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight
May 16, 2017
NCAA tournament teams score fewer points in domes — but not for the reasons you think
I wrote a dome-effect spinoff for Nylon Calculus
March 30, 2017
Why Did Vegas Books Struggle for Part of the NFL Season?
Contributed perspective and analysis to David Purdum's story for ESPN Chalk
March 7, 2017
Reminder: College Basketball's Dome Effect Is A Myth
March 3, 2017
The Founding Fathers Warned Us About NBA All-Star Voting
February 16, 2017
NFL Points and Scoring in Four Charts
Lots of passing, lots of kicking, lots of points
January 31, 2017
NFL Margins of Victory in Four Charts
Games are close, scores are weird, common margins still reign
January 31, 2017
NFL Rushing and Passing in Four Charts
Teams have never passed more and run less
January 31, 2017
Your 2017 Super Bowl Box (Squares) Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Falcons win probabilities impact your chances
January 24, 2017
Russell Westbrook is the best non-starter in NBA All-Star Game history
January 20, 2017
The 2016 San Francisco 49ers finished with the third-worst run defense in NFL history
January 12, 2017
The Rise and of Rudy Giuliani
December 7, 2016
Irony Trumps Hate
Andrew Jackson is the only president with fewer American-born ancestors than Donald Trump
November 23, 2016
The 2016 San Francisco 49ers are on pace to have the worst run defense in NFL history
November 13, 2016
Week 8's NFL betting lines are the lowest in at least a decade
October 27, 2016
God, Love, Jeter & Santa Claus
October 25, 2016 | Original: September 28, 2014
Never Throw Away Your Old Debate Ties
Tie colors and memorable moments in presidential debate fashion history
October 18, 2016
How TV networks color-coded the parties on election night
A complete history of red states and blue states
September 21, 2016
Clinton-Trump Is the Oldest U.S. Presidential Election in History
But relative to life expectancy are they really all that old?
August 5, 2016
The Oldest and Youngest U.S. Presidential Candidates in History
Relative to life expectancy
August 5, 2016
The 2016 U.S. Men's National Basketball Team Is an Average Version of Itself
And it's below average for an Olympic team. Should we worry?
July 10, 2016
O.J. Simpson's Pro Football Fame Was Mostly Based on Two Great Seasons
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight
June 15, 2016
When You Wish Upon A Star: The Star Makeup of NBA Championship Teams
May 19, 2016
How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football?
And other musings on rushing in the NFL
May 4, 2016
The Best Running Backs and Rushing Seasons in NFL History
May 4, 2016
Historical NFL Rushing Trends and Stat Adjustment Considerations
May 4, 2016
The Dome Effect Isn't Real; The NRG Effect Is Complicated
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight
April 2, 2016
Is College Basketball's 'Dome Effect' Real?
Do NCAA Tournament teams shoot poorly in big domed football stadiums?
March 16, 2016
Hamilton Is Diverse, but Is Its Audience?
March 3, 2016
Margins of Victory through NFL History
Despite its weird scores, 2015 had the most "normal" margins of victory in NFL history
February 23, 2016
Kobe Bryant Is the Second Worst All-Star Starter in NBA Voting History - Behind Himself
But we don't need stats to know he's a star (and neither does Michael Rapaport)
February 9, 2016
Your Super Bowl Box Cheat Sheet
Reflecting 2015's Weird Scores and Carolina-Denver Win Probabilities
January 30, 2016
A Complete History of NFL Points, Scores, and Scoring
(Super Bowl Box Redux: The Trends and Scores Behind the Story)
January 27, 2016
Not Your Granddaddy's Super Bowl Boxes
How 2015's Weird Scores Change the Odds
Updated: February 1, 2016 | Original: January 15, 2016
NFL Kickers: Playoff Heroes or Goats, More So Now Than Ever Before
January 8, 2016
Weird Score Redux: What's to Blame, Game by Game?
Updated: January 10, 2016 | Original: December 8, 2015
Why 2015's NFL Scores Are the Weirdest in History
Updated: January 8, 2016 | Original: November 23, 2015
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight
April 6, 2018
Video: College Basketball's Dome Effect Is A Myth
In partnership with John Manuel Silva. More entertaining than the text!
March 29, 2018
Reminder: College Basketball's Dome Effect Is A Myth
Updated and adapted for 2018
March 21, 2018
Get Me Off This ******* Plane!
How long does it take to exit an airplane?
March 14, 2018
Al Pacino vs. Robert De Niro
I. Introduction (Tale of the Tape)
II. Box Office Receipts
III. Online Audience Ratings
IV. "The Godfather Ratings"
V. Film Genres Over Time
March 4, 2018
Coin vs. Machine Super Bowl LII
The models love the Eagles plus the points. Do you trust it?
February 2, 2018
Your 2018 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Eagles win probabilities impact your chances
January 24, 2018
Coin vs. Machine NFL Conference Championships
The models have had a pretty good playoffs so far
January 19, 2018
Coin vs. Machine NFL Divisional Playoffs
The models mostly like the underdogs against the spread
January 12, 2018
Coin vs. Machine NFL Wild Card Playoffs
January 6, 2018
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 17
December 30, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 16
December 23, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 15
December 16, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 14
December 10, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 13
Big test this week with six 5-model unanimous picks ("best bets")
December 3, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 12
High lines and heavy favorites
November 22, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 11
5-model unanimous picks have won 70% of games against the spread
November 18, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 10
5-model unanimous picks continue to separate from the pack
November 9, 2017
NBA Win Projections and Offseason Improvement
- The Projected Impact of the 2017 NBA Offseason
- Vegas's Favorite and Least Favorite NBA Franchises
- The Most Overrated and Underrated NBA Franchises
November 6, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 9
3-model and 5-model unanimous picks went undefeated last week
November 3, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 8
Last week had the most low-scoring blowouts in NFL history
October 27, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 7
Not a single NFL team is favored by 6.5 points or more (a first?)
October 19, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 6
3-model and 5-model unanimous picks have performed very well so far
October 13, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 5
Plus the importance of your betting lines (down to the half-point)
October 5, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 4
Last week had the most high-scoring close games in NFL history
September 28, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 3
September 21, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 2
September 14, 2017
Wow, Week 1 of the NFL Was Terrible
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight
September 12, 2017
Coin vs. Machine NFL Week 1
You can't beat Vegas against the spread
September 10, 2017
The Oddity and Accuracy of Week 1's NFL Betting Lines
ELDORADO for Lineups.com
September 8, 2017
Which College Football Teams Are Always Overrated in August?
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight
August 23, 2017
The Knicks Can't Even Get The Draft Lottery Right
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight
May 16, 2017
NCAA tournament teams score fewer points in domes — but not for the reasons you think
I wrote a dome-effect spinoff for Nylon Calculus
March 30, 2017
Why Did Vegas Books Struggle for Part of the NFL Season?
Contributed perspective and analysis to David Purdum's story for ESPN Chalk
March 7, 2017
Reminder: College Basketball's Dome Effect Is A Myth
March 3, 2017
The Founding Fathers Warned Us About NBA All-Star Voting
February 16, 2017
NFL Points and Scoring in Four Charts
Lots of passing, lots of kicking, lots of points
January 31, 2017
NFL Margins of Victory in Four Charts
Games are close, scores are weird, common margins still reign
January 31, 2017
NFL Rushing and Passing in Four Charts
Teams have never passed more and run less
January 31, 2017
Your 2017 Super Bowl Box (Squares) Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Falcons win probabilities impact your chances
January 24, 2017
Russell Westbrook is the best non-starter in NBA All-Star Game history
January 20, 2017
The 2016 San Francisco 49ers finished with the third-worst run defense in NFL history
January 12, 2017
The Rise and of Rudy Giuliani
December 7, 2016
Irony Trumps Hate
Andrew Jackson is the only president with fewer American-born ancestors than Donald Trump
November 23, 2016
The 2016 San Francisco 49ers are on pace to have the worst run defense in NFL history
November 13, 2016
Week 8's NFL betting lines are the lowest in at least a decade
October 27, 2016
God, Love, Jeter & Santa Claus
October 25, 2016 | Original: September 28, 2014
Never Throw Away Your Old Debate Ties
Tie colors and memorable moments in presidential debate fashion history
October 18, 2016
How TV networks color-coded the parties on election night
A complete history of red states and blue states
September 21, 2016
Clinton-Trump Is the Oldest U.S. Presidential Election in History
But relative to life expectancy are they really all that old?
August 5, 2016
The Oldest and Youngest U.S. Presidential Candidates in History
Relative to life expectancy
August 5, 2016
The 2016 U.S. Men's National Basketball Team Is an Average Version of Itself
And it's below average for an Olympic team. Should we worry?
July 10, 2016
O.J. Simpson's Pro Football Fame Was Mostly Based on Two Great Seasons
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight
June 15, 2016
When You Wish Upon A Star: The Star Makeup of NBA Championship Teams
May 19, 2016
How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football?
And other musings on rushing in the NFL
May 4, 2016
The Best Running Backs and Rushing Seasons in NFL History
May 4, 2016
Historical NFL Rushing Trends and Stat Adjustment Considerations
May 4, 2016
The Dome Effect Isn't Real; The NRG Effect Is Complicated
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight
April 2, 2016
Is College Basketball's 'Dome Effect' Real?
Do NCAA Tournament teams shoot poorly in big domed football stadiums?
March 16, 2016
Hamilton Is Diverse, but Is Its Audience?
March 3, 2016
Margins of Victory through NFL History
Despite its weird scores, 2015 had the most "normal" margins of victory in NFL history
February 23, 2016
Kobe Bryant Is the Second Worst All-Star Starter in NBA Voting History - Behind Himself
But we don't need stats to know he's a star (and neither does Michael Rapaport)
February 9, 2016
Your Super Bowl Box Cheat Sheet
Reflecting 2015's Weird Scores and Carolina-Denver Win Probabilities
January 30, 2016
A Complete History of NFL Points, Scores, and Scoring
(Super Bowl Box Redux: The Trends and Scores Behind the Story)
January 27, 2016
Not Your Granddaddy's Super Bowl Boxes
How 2015's Weird Scores Change the Odds
Updated: February 1, 2016 | Original: January 15, 2016
NFL Kickers: Playoff Heroes or Goats, More So Now Than Ever Before
January 8, 2016
Weird Score Redux: What's to Blame, Game by Game?
Updated: January 10, 2016 | Original: December 8, 2015
Why 2015's NFL Scores Are the Weirdest in History
Updated: January 8, 2016 | Original: November 23, 2015
