As seen on FiveThirtyEight  ESPN Chalk  ESPN Chalk  ESPN Radio  Nylon Calculus  Raiders.com  Lineups.com  The Cauldron - Quoted in The New York Times  ESPN Chalk  ESPN Chalk  FiveThirtyEight  FiveThirtyEight - Shared by The New York Times  The Washington Post  ESPN Chalk  FiveThirtyEight  Football Outsiders  Football Outsiders  Football Outsiders  SB Nation  SB Nation  Football Perspective  Pregame.com
NEW-ISH
2020 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Chiefs-49ers win probabilities impact your chances
JAN 26 2020
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT​
Vegas Thinks The NBA Title Race Is As Wide Open As It's Been In A Long Time
Analysis of preseason NBA championship odds/results (1984-85 to present)
OCT 25 2019
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
The Preseason Favorite Is a Good Bet to Lose the Super Bowl
Analysis of preseason Super Bowl odds/results (2001 to present)
AUG 22 2018
FOR ESPN CHALK
What We Learned from 16 Years of NFL Win Total Over/Unders
Analysis of NFL win totals and over/under trends (2002 to present)
SEP 5 2018
FOR ESPN CHALK
Midseason NFL Betting Review: What We've Learned
First-half trends and noteworthy movement on the Super Bowl odds board
​NOV 9 2018
Your NFL Wins Pool Draft Order Needs Some Adjusting
How to improve the "Bill Simmons draft order"
AUG 29 2018 } UPDATED AUG 16 2019
​​Hard Knocks Affects NFL Teams Differently ​— Or Really Not At All
The Hard Knocks effect (2001 to present)
AUG 21 2018
​Now You Can Lose Money Betting on Sports Legally
The odds are stacked way the hell against you
​MAY 17 2018
NFL DRAFT AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL
HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
​The Best Quarterback Draft Classes in NFL History
APR 25 2018
HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
NFL Draft History: Fun QB Draft Class Facts and Figures
​APR 25 2018
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
Which College Football Teams Are Always Overrated in August?
AUG 23 2017
NFL RUSHING
How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football? - Introduction
And other musings on rushing in the NFL
​MAY 4 2016
How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football? - Analysis 
And other musings on rushing in the NFL
​MAY 4 2016
WEIRD NFL SCORES
HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
Why 2015's NFL Scores Are the Weirdest in History
​NOV 23 2015
HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
​Weird Score Redux: What's to Blame, Game by Game?
​​DEC 8 2015
ALSO APPEARED ON THE CAULDRON
Not Your Granddaddy's Super Bowl Boxes
How 2015's Weird Scores Change the Odds
​JAN 15 2016
SUPER BOWL SQUARES
2019 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Rams win probabilities impact your chances
JAN 24 2019
2018 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Eagles win probabilities impact your chances
JAN 24 2018
HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
2017 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Falcons win probabilities impact your chances
JAN 24 2017
QUOTED ON FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
​2016 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Panthers-Broncos win probabilities impact your chances
JAN 30 2016
NFL TRENDS
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
Wow, Week 1 of the NFL Was Terrible
SEP 12 2017
Margins of Victory through NFL History
Despite weird scores, 2015 had the most normal margins of victory in history
FEB 23 2016
A Complete History of NFL Points, Scores, and Scoring
(Super Bowl Box Redux: The Trends and Scores Behind the Story)
JAN 27 2016
NFL Points & Scoring in Four Charts
Lots of passing, lots of kicking, lots of points
​JAN 31 2017
NFL Margins of Victory in Four Charts
Games are close, scores are weird, common margins still reign
​JAN 31 2017
NFL Rushing & Passing in Four Charts
Teams have never passed more and run less
​JAN 31 2017
VEGAS
CULTURE
​​Al Pacino vs. Robert De Niro
Comparing their careers and ranking their films
MAR 4 2018
​​Hamilton Is Diverse, But Is Its Audience?
​MAR 3 2016
God, Love, Jeter & Santa Claus
SEP 28 2014
AL PACINO VS. ROBERT DE NIRO
Tale of the Tape
MAR 4 2018
​Box Office Receipts
​MAR 4 2018
​Audience Ratings
​MAR 4 2018
​"Godfather Ratings"
​MAR 4 2018
Genre Comparison
​MAR 4 2018
POLITICS
The Rise and          of Rudy Giuliani
DEC 7 2016
Irony Trumps Hate 
Andrew Jackson is the only president with fewer American-born ancestors than Donald Trump
​NOV 23 2016
Don't Throw Away Your Old Debate Ties
Tie colors and memorable moments in presidential debate fashion history
OCT 18 2016
​How TV Networks Color-Coded the Parties on Election Night
The history of red states and blue states on TV
​​SEP 21 2016
This Is the Oldest U.S. Presidential Election in History - Or Is It?
Candidates' ages relative to life expectancy, from 1789 to 2016
​AUG 5 2016
​The Oldest and Youngest U.S. Presidential Candidates in History
Relative to life expectancy
​AUG 5 2016
COLLEGE BASKETBALL'S DOME EFFECT
Video: College Basketball's Dome Effect Is A Myth
In partnership with John Manuel Silva
​MAR 29 2018
Reminder: College Basketball's Dome Effect Is A Myth
A shorter, sweeter, updated summary for 2018
​MAR 21 2018
Reminder: College Basketball's Dome Effect Is A Myth
A shorter, sweeter, updated summary for 2017
​MAR 3 2017
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE WASHINGTON POST
Teams Score Fewer Points in Domes - But Not for the Reasons You Think
​MAR 30 2017
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
The Dome Effect Isn't Real; The NRG Effect Is Complicated
​APR 2 2016
THE ORIGINAL DEBUNKING
​Is The Dome Effect Real?
Do NCAA tournament teams shoot poorly in big domed football stadiums?
​MAR 16 2016​
NBA DRAFT AND CHAMPIONS
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
The Knicks Can't Even Get The Draft Lottery Right
MAY 16 2017
When You Wish Upon A Star (I)
​The Star Makeup of NBA Championship Teams
MAY 19 2016
When You Wish Upon A Star (II)
​Noteworthy Champions / Most and Fewest Stars / Big 4s, 3s, and 2s 
MAY 19 2016
NBA WIN TOTALS
QUOTED ON ESPN CHALK
The Projected Impact of the 2018 NBA Offseason
Plus win-total over/under trends, featuring LeBron James, the Lakers and Cavs, Warriors and Hawks, Spurs and Knicks
OCT 11 2018
NBA ALL-STAR GAME
U.S. OLYMPIC BASKETBALL
The 2016 U.S. Men's National Team Is an Average Version of Itself
And it's below average for a U.S. Olympic team. Should we worry?
​JUL 10 2016
Appendix I: Quality, Experience, and Continuity of USMNBTs since 1992 
A little more experience and continuity detail than the main story
​JAN 20 2017
Appendix II: A Closer Look at the 1992, 2004, and 2016 USMNBTs
There's enough of a hint of 2004 on the 2016 roster to conjure up some worry
​JUL 10 2016
FIFA WORLD CUP
SEARCHING FOR VALUE
NFL Picks and Futures (2018)
Regular Season Against the Spread: 44-34-3 (+770) - Money Line: 26-54 (+1914, almost all dogs)
Net profit includes vigs  -  ATS picks "to win 100"  -  ML picks "risk 100"
Super Bowl LIII
FEB 1 2019
Conference Championships
JAN 19 2019
Week 16
DEC 19 2018
Week 15
DEC 15 2018
Week 14
DEC 6 2018
Week 13
DEC 1 2018
Week 12
NOV 21 2018
Week 11
NOV 18 2018
Week 10
NOV 11 2018
Week 9
OCT 31 2018
Week 8
OCT 27 2018
Week 7
OCT 18 2018
Week 6
OCT 11 2018
Week 5
OCT 6 2018
Week 4
SEP 27 2018
Week 3
SEP 22 2018
Week 2
SEP 16 2018
Week 1
SEP 9 2018
COIN VS. MACHINE
NFL Picks and Trends (2017)
Super Bowl LII
The models love the Eagles plus the points. Do you trust it?
FEB 2 2018
Conference Championships
The models have had a pretty good playoffs so far
JAN 19 2018
Divisional Playoffs
The models mostly like the underdogs against the spread
JAN 12 2018
Wild Card Playoffs
JAN 6 2018
Week 17
DEC 30 2017
Week 16
DEC 23 2017
Week 15
DEC 16 2017
​Week 14
DEC 10 2017
Week 13
Big test with six 5-model unanimous picks
DEC 3 2017
Week 12
High lines and heavy favorites
NOV 22 2017
Week 11
5-model unanimous picks have won 70% of games against the spread
NOV 18 2017
Week 10
5-model unanimous picks continue to separate from the pack
NOV 9 2017
Week 9
3-model and 5-model unanimous picks went undefeated in Week 8
NOV 3 2017
Week 8
Last week had the most low-scoring blowouts in NFL history 
OCT 27 2017
Week 7
Not a single team is favored by 6.5 points or more - first time in 15+ years if it holds
OCT 19 2017
Week 6
3-model and 5-model unanimous picks have performed very well so far
OCT 13 2017
Week 5
Plus the importance of your betting lines - down to the half-point
OCT 5 2017
Week 4
Last week had the most high-scoring close games in NFL history
​SEP 28 2017
Week 3
SEP 21 2017
Week 2
SEP 14 2017
Week 1
You can't beat Vegas against the spread
SEP 10 2017
​​
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