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Fun insights for sports fans and statheads alike
As seen on FiveThirtyEight  ESPN Chalk  ESPN Chalk  ESPN Radio  Nylon Calculus  Raiders.com  Lineups.com  The Cauldron - Quoted in The New York Times  ESPN Chalk  ESPN Chalk  FiveThirtyEight  FiveThirtyEight - Shared by The New York Times  The Washington Post  ESPN Chalk  FiveThirtyEight  Football Outsiders  Football Outsiders  Football Outsiders  SB Nation  SB Nation  Football Perspective  Pregame.com

2023 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Eagles-Chiefs win probabilities impact your chances
FEB 3 2023
IMPORTANT NOTE RE: SEARCHING FOR VALUE

Almost every one of Searching for Value's NFL picks is an underdog. When betting underdogs on the moneyline (to win straight up), bettors are paid a multiple of the amount they've risked to compensate them for backing a team that the market believes has a lower or much lower likelihood of winning.

This NFL season, the system's average Tier 1 and Tier 2 Moneyline plays have had +306 odds, meaning winning bets would net 306 in profit for every 100 risked. The system's average Weekly Top 5 Moneyline plays have had +187 odds, meaning winning bets would net 187 in profit for every 100 risked.

As explained in the column, the system actually expects to lose more moneyline *bets* than it wins. (With average odds of +300, a bettor needs to win 25% of the time to break even.) But when it is earning over 300 per win and "only" losing 100 per loss, the record(s) below can produce highly positive returns.

SEARCHING FOR VALUE
NFL Picks and Futures (2022-23)
Full Regular Season - No Week 18 - Season Summary

Tier 1/2 Moneyline: 9-19-1 (+740 on 2800 risked)
All underdogs to win straight up - Average odds +306

Weekly Top 5 Moneyline: 31-53-1 (+449 on 8400 risked)
Almost all underdogs to win straight up - Average odds +187

Weekly Top 5 Against the Spread: 47-38-0 (+520 on 9350 risked)
Almost all underdogs to win against the spread

If you are not familiar with what this stuff means - how to interpret these results - why these records are good (or lucky), at least for now - please read the explainers above and in the column.
SUPER BOWL SQUARES
2021 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Chiefs-Bucs win probabilities impact your chances
FEB 2 2021
2020 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Chiefs-49ers win probabilities impact your chances
JAN 26 2020
2019 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Rams win probabilities impact your chances
JAN 24 2019
2018 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Eagles win probabilities impact your chances
JAN 24 2018
HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
2017 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Falcons win probabilities impact your chances
JAN 24 2017
QUOTED ON FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
​2016 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Panthers-Broncos win probabilities impact your chances
JAN 30 2016
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
The Preseason Favorite Is a Good Bet to Lose the Super Bowl

Analysis of preseason Super Bowl odds/results (2001 to present)
AUG 22 2018
FOR ESPN CHALK
What We Learned from 16 Years of NFL Win Total Over/Unders
Analysis of NFL win totals and over/under trends (2002 to present)
SEP 5 2018
FOR ESPN CHALK
Midseason NFL Betting Review: What We've Learned
First-half trends and noteworthy movement on the Super Bowl odds board
​NOV 9 2018
Your NFL Wins Pool Draft Order Needs Some Adjusting
How to improve the "Bill Simmons draft order"
AUG 29 2018 } UPDATED AUG 16 2019
​​Hard Knocks Affects NFL Teams Differently ​— Or Really Not At All
The Hard Knocks effect (2001 to present)
AUG 21 2018
​Now You Can Lose Money Betting on Sports Legally
The odds are stacked way the hell against you
​MAY 17 2018
NFL DRAFT AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL
HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
​The Best Quarterback Draft Classes in NFL History
APR 25 2018
HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
NFL Draft History: Fun QB Draft Class Facts and Figures
​APR 25 2018
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
Which College Football Teams Are Always Overrated in August?
AUG 23 2017
NFL RUSHING
How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football? - Introduction
And other musings on rushing in the NFL
​MAY 4 2016
How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football? - Analysis 
And other musings on rushing in the NFL
​MAY 4 2016
Historical NFL Rushing Trends and Stat Adjustment Considerations
​MAY 4 2016
The Best Running Backs and Rushing Seasons in NFL History
​MAY 4 2016
ALSO APPEARED ON THE CAULDRON
​The 2016 49ers Had the 3rd-Worst Run Defense in NFL History
​JAN 12 2017
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
O.J. Simpson's Pro Football Fame Was Mostly Based on Two Great Seasons
JUN 15 2016
WEIRD NFL SCORES
HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
Why 2015's NFL Scores Are the Weirdest in History
​NOV 23 2015
HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
​Weird Score Redux: What's to Blame, Game by Game?
​​
DEC 8 2015
ALSO APPEARED ON THE CAULDRON
Not Your Granddaddy's Super Bowl Boxes
How 2015's Weird Scores Change the Odds
​JAN 15 2016
NFL TRENDS
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
Wow, Week 1 of the NFL Was Terrible
SEP 12 2017
Margins of Victory through NFL History
Despite weird scores, 2015 had the most normal margins of victory in history
FEB 23 2016
A Complete History of NFL Points, Scores, and Scoring
(Super Bowl Box Redux: The Trends and Scores Behind the Story)
JAN 27 2016
NFL Points & Scoring in Four Charts
Lots of passing, lots of kicking, lots of points
​JAN 31 2017
NFL Margins of Victory in Four Charts
Games are close, scores are weird, common margins still reign
​JAN 31 2017
NFL Rushing & Passing in Four Charts
Teams have never passed more and run less
​JAN 31 2017
VEGAS
QUOTED ON ESPN CHALK
Why Did Vegas Books Struggle for Part of the NFL Season?
MAR 7 2017
FOR LINEUPS.COM
The Oddity and Accuracy of Week 1's NFL Betting Lines
​SEP 8 2017
ALSO APPEARED ON THE CAULDRON
Week 8's NFL Betting Lines Are the Lowest in at Least a Decade
​OCT 27 2016
CULTURE
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE NEW YORK TIMES
Spring 2018 Was One of New York City's Least Springy Springs
 JUN 25 2018
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
​Just How Much Does Tiger Woods Affect TV Ratings for The Masters?
​APR 6 2018
​​The Lost Art of the Shitter Read
DEC 5 2018
 The Jersey Shore Cast Is Barely Over Half Italian-American
​MAY 7 2018
Get Me Off This ******* Plane!
How long does it take to exit an airplane?
MAR 14 2018
​​Al Pacino vs. Robert De Niro
Comparing their careers and ranking their films
MAR 4 2018
​​Hamilton Is Diverse, But Is Its Audience?
​MAR 3 2016
God, Love, Jeter & Santa Claus
SEP 28 2014
AL PACINO VS. ROBERT DE NIRO
Tale of the Tape
MAR 4 2018
​Box Office Receipts
​MAR 4 2018
​Audience Ratings
​MAR 4 2018
​"Godfather Ratings"
​MAR 4 2018
Genre Comparison
​MAR 4 2018
POLITICS
The Rise and          of Rudy Giuliani
DEC 7 2016
Irony Trumps Hate 
Andrew Jackson is the only president with fewer American-born ancestors than Donald Trump
​NOV 23 2016
Don't Throw Away Your Old Debate Ties
Tie colors and memorable moments in presidential debate fashion history
OCT 18 2016
​How TV Networks Color-Coded the Parties on Election Night
The history of red states and blue states on TV
​
​SEP 21 2016
This Is the Oldest U.S. Presidential Election in History - Or Is It?
Candidates' ages relative to life expectancy, from 1789 to 2016
​AUG 5 2016
​The Oldest and Youngest U.S. Presidential Candidates in History
Relative to life expectancy
​AUG 5 2016
COLLEGE BASKETBALL'S DOME EFFECT
Video: College Basketball's Dome Effect Is A Myth
In partnership with John Manuel Silva
​MAR 29 2018
Reminder: College Basketball's Dome Effect Is A Myth
A shorter, sweeter, updated summary for 2018
​MAR 21 2018
Reminder: College Basketball's Dome Effect Is A Myth
A shorter, sweeter, updated summary for 2017
​MAR 3 2017
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE WASHINGTON POST
Teams Score Fewer Points in Domes - But Not for the Reasons You Think
​MAR 30 2017
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
The Dome Effect Isn't Real; The NRG Effect Is Complicated
​APR 2 2016
THE ORIGINAL DEBUNKING
​Is The Dome Effect Real?
Do NCAA tournament teams shoot poorly in big domed football stadiums?
​MAR 16 2016​
NBA DRAFT AND CHAMPIONS
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
The Knicks Can't Even Get The Draft Lottery Right
MAY 16 2017
When You Wish Upon A Star (I)
​
The Star Makeup of NBA Championship Teams
MAY 19 2016
When You Wish Upon A Star (II)
​
Noteworthy Champions / Most and Fewest Stars / Big 4s, 3s, and 2s 
MAY 19 2016
NBA ODDS AND WIN TOTALS
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT​
Vegas Thinks The NBA Title Race Is As Wide Open As It's Been In A Long Time
Analysis of preseason NBA championship odds/results (1984-85 to present)
OCT 25 2019
QUOTED ON ESPN CHALK
The Projected Impact of the 2018 NBA Offseason
Plus win-total over/under trends, featuring LeBron James, the Lakers and Cavs, Warriors and Hawks, Spurs and Knicks
OCT 11 2018
The Projected Impact of the 2017 NBA Offseason
OCT 30 2017
Vegas's Favorite and Least Favorite NBA Franchises
OCT 30 2017
The Most Overrated and Underrated NBA Franchises
OCT 30 2017
NBA ALL-STAR GAME
​The Founding Fathers Warned Us About NBA All-Star Voting
​FEB 16 2017
Russell Westbrook Is the Best Non-Starter in NBA All-Star Game History
​
JAN 20 2017
Kobe Bryant Is the 2nd Worst All-Star Starter in NBA History - Behind Himself
But we don't need stats to know he's a star
​FEB 11 2016
​The Relationship Between NBA All-Star Voting and Advanced Stats
​
​FEB 11 2016
​The Biggest Snubs in NBA All-Star Game Voting History
(Starter snubs and top 5-10-15 vote snubs)
​​FEB 11 2016
​The Worst Starters in NBA All-Star Game Voting History
​
​FEB 11 2016
U.S. OLYMPIC BASKETBALL
The 2016 U.S. Men's National Team Is an Average Version of Itself
And it's below average for a U.S. Olympic team. Should we worry?
​JUL 10 2016
Appendix I: Quality, Experience, and Continuity of USMNBTs since 1992 
A little more experience and continuity detail than the main story
​JAN 20 2017
Appendix II: A Closer Look at the 1992, 2004, and 2016 USMNBTs
There's enough of a hint of 2004 on the 2016 roster to conjure up some worry
​JUL 10 2016
FIFA WORLD CUP
Part I - France Closed Out Belgium with a Master Class in Wasting Time
JUL 10 2018
Part II - Time-Wasting Report Card: France Did It Best (Worst?), Then Brazil
JUL 14 2018
SEARCHING FOR VALUE
NFL Picks and Futures (2018)
Regular Season Against the Spread: 44-34-3 (+770) - Money Line: 26-54 (+1914, almost all dogs)
Net profit includes vigs  -  ATS picks "to win 100"  -  ML picks "risk 100"
Super Bowl LIII
FEB 1 2019
Conference Championships
JAN 19 2019
Week 16
DEC 19 2018
Week 15
DEC 15 2018
Week 14
DEC 6 2018
Week 13
DEC 1 2018
Week 12
NOV 21 2018
Week 11
NOV 18 2018
Week 10
NOV 11 2018
Week 9
OCT 31 2018
Week 8
OCT 27 2018
Week 7
OCT 18 2018
Week 6
OCT 11 2018
Week 5
OCT 6 2018
Week 4
SEP 27 2018
Week 3
SEP 22 2018
Week 2
SEP 16 2018
Week 1
SEP 9 2018
COIN VS. MACHINE
NFL Picks and Trends (2017)
Super Bowl LII
The models love the Eagles plus the points. Do you trust it?
FEB 2 2018
Conference Championships
The models have had a pretty good playoffs so far
JAN 19 2018
Divisional Playoffs
The models mostly like the underdogs against the spread
JAN 12 2018
Wild Card Playoffs
JAN 6 2018
Week 17
DEC 30 2017
Week 16
DEC 23 2017
Week 15
DEC 16 2017
​Week 14
DEC 10 2017
Week 13
Big test with six 5-model unanimous picks
DEC 3 2017
Week 12
High lines and heavy favorites
NOV 22 2017
Week 11
5-model unanimous picks have won 70% of games against the spread
NOV 18 2017
Week 10
5-model unanimous picks continue to separate from the pack
NOV 9 2017
Week 9
3-model and 5-model unanimous picks went undefeated in Week 8
NOV 3 2017
Week 8
Last week had the most low-scoring blowouts in NFL history 
OCT 27 2017
Week 7
Not a single team is favored by 6.5 points or more - first time in 15+ years if it holds
OCT 19 2017
Week 6
3-model and 5-model unanimous picks have performed very well so far
OCT 13 2017
Week 5
Plus the importance of your betting lines - down to the half-point
OCT 5 2017
Week 4
Last week had the most high-scoring close games in NFL history
​SEP 28 2017
Week 3
SEP 21 2017
Week 2
SEP 14 2017
Week 1
You can't beat Vegas against the spread

SEP 10 2017

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