As seen on FiveThirtyEight ESPN Chalk ESPN Chalk ESPN Radio Nylon Calculus Raiders.com Lineups.com The Cauldron - Quoted in The New York Times ESPN Chalk ESPN Chalk FiveThirtyEight FiveThirtyEight - Shared by The New York Times The Washington Post ESPN Chalk FiveThirtyEight Football Outsiders Football Outsiders Football Outsiders SB Nation SB Nation Football Perspective Pregame.com
IMPORTANT NOTE RE: SEARCHING FOR VALUE
Almost every one of Searching for Value's NFL picks is an underdog. When betting underdogs on the moneyline (to win straight up), bettors are paid a multiple of the amount they've risked to compensate them for backing a team that the market believes has a lower or much lower likelihood of winning.
This NFL season, the system's average Tier 1 and Tier 2 Moneyline plays have had +306 odds, meaning winning bets would net 306 in profit for every 100 risked. The system's average Weekly Top 5 Moneyline plays have had +187 odds, meaning winning bets would net 187 in profit for every 100 risked.
As explained in the column, the system actually expects to lose more moneyline *bets* than it wins. (With average odds of +300, a bettor needs to win 25% of the time to break even.) But when it is earning over 300 per win and "only" losing 100 per loss, the record(s) below can produce highly positive returns.
Almost every one of Searching for Value's NFL picks is an underdog. When betting underdogs on the moneyline (to win straight up), bettors are paid a multiple of the amount they've risked to compensate them for backing a team that the market believes has a lower or much lower likelihood of winning.
This NFL season, the system's average Tier 1 and Tier 2 Moneyline plays have had +306 odds, meaning winning bets would net 306 in profit for every 100 risked. The system's average Weekly Top 5 Moneyline plays have had +187 odds, meaning winning bets would net 187 in profit for every 100 risked.
As explained in the column, the system actually expects to lose more moneyline *bets* than it wins. (With average odds of +300, a bettor needs to win 25% of the time to break even.) But when it is earning over 300 per win and "only" losing 100 per loss, the record(s) below can produce highly positive returns.
SEARCHING FOR VALUE
NFL Picks and Futures (2022)
Full Regular Season - No Week 18 - Playoff Notes Below
There have been no Tier 1 or 2 Qualifiers in the NFL Playoffs so far. During Wild Card Weekend, the system thought JAX (+120) and MIN (-155) were a little bit undervalued at those odds, but not enough to qualify as Tier 1 Selections or Tier 2 Considerations. JAX fell in the 89th percentile, while MIN fell in the 83rd. In a regular-season week, JAX and MIN would very likely have been in the Weekly Top 5.
In the Divisional Round, the system thought that all four games were pretty fairly priced. So there were obviously no Tier 1 Selections or Tier 2 Considerations, and no team would have even cracked the Weekly Top 5. The closest team was Cincinnati, which the system thought had a better chance to win that its +205 odds implies (68th percentile). The 49ers were next (-190, 63rd percentile).
There are still no Tier 1 or Tier 2 qualifiers in the Conference Championships, though the line movement has been interesting to watch. A few days ago, SFO (+127) and KC (+108) both fell in the 86th percentile; SFO is still there, and would crack a typical week's Top 5. But KC's odds have been all over the place, opening as favorites (-110), then moving to +100 and +105 and even +108, before shifting all the way back to -125 as of Friday afternoon (as QB Patrick Mahomes seems to be doing okay after last Sunday's ankle injury). That movement to -125 has negated the modest value that existed for KC earlier in the week.
Tier 1/2 Moneyline: 9-19-1 (+740 on 2800 risked)
All underdogs to win straight up - Average odds +306
Weekly Top 5 Moneyline: 31-53-1 (+449 on 8400 risked)
Almost all underdogs to win straight up - Average odds +187
Weekly Top 5 Against the Spread: 47-38-0 (+520 on 9350 risked)
Almost all underdogs to win against the spread
If you are not familiar with what this stuff means - how to interpret these results - why these records are good (or lucky), at least for now - please read the explainers above and in the column.
NFL Picks and Futures (2022)
Full Regular Season - No Week 18 - Playoff Notes Below
There have been no Tier 1 or 2 Qualifiers in the NFL Playoffs so far. During Wild Card Weekend, the system thought JAX (+120) and MIN (-155) were a little bit undervalued at those odds, but not enough to qualify as Tier 1 Selections or Tier 2 Considerations. JAX fell in the 89th percentile, while MIN fell in the 83rd. In a regular-season week, JAX and MIN would very likely have been in the Weekly Top 5.
In the Divisional Round, the system thought that all four games were pretty fairly priced. So there were obviously no Tier 1 Selections or Tier 2 Considerations, and no team would have even cracked the Weekly Top 5. The closest team was Cincinnati, which the system thought had a better chance to win that its +205 odds implies (68th percentile). The 49ers were next (-190, 63rd percentile).
There are still no Tier 1 or Tier 2 qualifiers in the Conference Championships, though the line movement has been interesting to watch. A few days ago, SFO (+127) and KC (+108) both fell in the 86th percentile; SFO is still there, and would crack a typical week's Top 5. But KC's odds have been all over the place, opening as favorites (-110), then moving to +100 and +105 and even +108, before shifting all the way back to -125 as of Friday afternoon (as QB Patrick Mahomes seems to be doing okay after last Sunday's ankle injury). That movement to -125 has negated the modest value that existed for KC earlier in the week.
Tier 1/2 Moneyline: 9-19-1 (+740 on 2800 risked)
All underdogs to win straight up - Average odds +306
Weekly Top 5 Moneyline: 31-53-1 (+449 on 8400 risked)
Almost all underdogs to win straight up - Average odds +187
Weekly Top 5 Against the Spread: 47-38-0 (+520 on 9350 risked)
Almost all underdogs to win against the spread
If you are not familiar with what this stuff means - how to interpret these results - why these records are good (or lucky), at least for now - please read the explainers above and in the column.
SUPER BOWL SQUARES
2023 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Eagles-Chiefs win probabilities impact your chances
FEB 3 2023
How historically weird scores and Eagles-Chiefs win probabilities impact your chances
FEB 3 2023
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2021 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Chiefs-Bucs win probabilities impact your chances FEB 2 2021 |
2020 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Chiefs-49ers win probabilities impact your chances JAN 26 2020 |
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2019 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Rams win probabilities impact your chances JAN 24 2019 |
2018 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Eagles win probabilities impact your chances JAN 24 2018 |
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HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
2017 Super Bowl Squares Odds How historically weird scores and Patriots-Falcons win probabilities impact your chances JAN 24 2017 |
QUOTED ON FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
2016 Super Bowl Squares Odds How historically weird scores and Panthers-Broncos win probabilities impact your chances JAN 30 2016 |
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
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FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
The Preseason Favorite Is a Good Bet to Lose the Super Bowl Analysis of preseason Super Bowl odds/results (2001 to present) AUG 22 2018 |
FOR ESPN CHALK
What We Learned from 16 Years of NFL Win Total Over/Unders Analysis of NFL win totals and over/under trends (2002 to present) SEP 5 2018 |
FOR ESPN CHALK
Midseason NFL Betting Review: What We've Learned First-half trends and noteworthy movement on the Super Bowl odds board NOV 9 2018 |
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Your NFL Wins Pool Draft Order Needs Some Adjusting
How to improve the "Bill Simmons draft order" AUG 29 2018 } UPDATED AUG 16 2019 |
Hard Knocks Affects NFL Teams Differently — Or Really Not At All
The Hard Knocks effect (2001 to present) AUG 21 2018 |
Now You Can Lose Money Betting on Sports Legally
The odds are stacked way the hell against you MAY 17 2018 |
NFL DRAFT AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL
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HIGHLIGHTED BY FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
NFL Draft History: Fun QB Draft Class Facts and Figures APR 25 2018 |
NFL RUSHING
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How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football? - Introduction
And other musings on rushing in the NFL MAY 4 2016 |
How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football? - Analysis
And other musings on rushing in the NFL MAY 4 2016 |
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ALSO APPEARED ON THE CAULDRON
The 2016 49ers Had the 3rd-Worst Run Defense in NFL History JAN 12 2017 |
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
O.J. Simpson's Pro Football Fame Was Mostly Based on Two Great Seasons JUN 15 2016 |
WEIRD NFL SCORES
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ALSO APPEARED ON THE CAULDRON
Not Your Granddaddy's Super Bowl Boxes How 2015's Weird Scores Change the Odds JAN 15 2016 |
NFL TRENDS
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Margins of Victory through NFL History
Despite weird scores, 2015 had the most normal margins of victory in history FEB 23 2016 |
A Complete History of NFL Points, Scores, and Scoring
(Super Bowl Box Redux: The Trends and Scores Behind the Story) JAN 27 2016 |
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NFL Margins of Victory in Four Charts
Games are close, scores are weird, common margins still reign JAN 31 2017 |
VEGAS
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ALSO APPEARED ON THE CAULDRON
Week 8's NFL Betting Lines Are the Lowest in at Least a Decade OCT 27 2016 |
CULTURE
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HIGHLIGHTED BY THE NEW YORK TIMES
Spring 2018 Was One of New York City's Least Springy Springs JUN 25 2018 |
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The Lost Art of the Shitter Read
DEC 5 2018 |
AL PACINO VS. ROBERT DE NIRO
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Tale of the Tape
MAR 4 2018 |
POLITICS
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Irony Trumps Hate
Andrew Jackson is the only president with fewer American-born ancestors than Donald Trump NOV 23 2016 |
Don't Throw Away Your Old Debate Ties
Tie colors and memorable moments in presidential debate fashion history OCT 18 2016 |
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How TV Networks Color-Coded the Parties on Election Night
The history of red states and blue states on TV SEP 21 2016 |
This Is the Oldest U.S. Presidential Election in History - Or Is It?
Candidates' ages relative to life expectancy, from 1789 to 2016 AUG 5 2016 |
The Oldest and Youngest U.S. Presidential Candidates in History
Relative to life expectancy AUG 5 2016 |
COLLEGE BASKETBALL'S DOME EFFECT
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Reminder: College Basketball's Dome Effect Is A Myth
A shorter, sweeter, updated summary for 2018 MAR 21 2018 |
Reminder: College Basketball's Dome Effect Is A Myth
A shorter, sweeter, updated summary for 2017 MAR 3 2017 |
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HIGHLIGHTED BY THE WASHINGTON POST
Teams Score Fewer Points in Domes - But Not for the Reasons You Think MAR 30 2017 |
THE ORIGINAL DEBUNKING
Is The Dome Effect Real? Do NCAA tournament teams shoot poorly in big domed football stadiums? MAR 16 2016 |
NBA DRAFT AND CHAMPIONS
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When You Wish Upon A Star (II)
Noteworthy Champions / Most and Fewest Stars / Big 4s, 3s, and 2s MAY 19 2016 |
NBA ODDS AND WIN TOTALS
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
Vegas Thinks The NBA Title Race Is As Wide Open As It's Been In A Long Time
Analysis of preseason NBA championship odds/results (1984-85 to present)
OCT 25 2019
Vegas Thinks The NBA Title Race Is As Wide Open As It's Been In A Long Time
Analysis of preseason NBA championship odds/results (1984-85 to present)
OCT 25 2019
QUOTED ON ESPN CHALK
The Projected Impact of the 2018 NBA Offseason
Plus win-total over/under trends, featuring LeBron James, the Lakers and Cavs, Warriors and Hawks, Spurs and Knicks
OCT 11 2018
The Projected Impact of the 2018 NBA Offseason
Plus win-total over/under trends, featuring LeBron James, the Lakers and Cavs, Warriors and Hawks, Spurs and Knicks
OCT 11 2018
NBA ALL-STAR GAME
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Kobe Bryant Is the 2nd Worst All-Star Starter in NBA History - Behind Himself
But we don't need stats to know he's a star FEB 11 2016 |
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The Biggest Snubs in NBA All-Star Game Voting History
(Starter snubs and top 5-10-15 vote snubs) FEB 11 2016 |
U.S. OLYMPIC BASKETBALL
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The 2016 U.S. Men's National Team Is an Average Version of Itself
And it's below average for a U.S. Olympic team. Should we worry? JUL 10 2016 |
Appendix I: Quality, Experience, and Continuity of USMNBTs since 1992
A little more experience and continuity detail than the main story JAN 20 2017 |
Appendix II: A Closer Look at the 1992, 2004, and 2016 USMNBTs
There's enough of a hint of 2004 on the 2016 roster to conjure up some worry JUL 10 2016 |
FIFA WORLD CUP
SEARCHING FOR VALUE
NFL Picks and Futures (2018)
NFL Picks and Futures (2018)
Regular Season Against the Spread: 44-34-3 (+770) - Money Line: 26-54 (+1914, almost all dogs)
Net profit includes vigs - ATS picks "to win 100" - ML picks "risk 100"
Net profit includes vigs - ATS picks "to win 100" - ML picks "risk 100"
COIN VS. MACHINE
NFL Picks and Trends (2017)
NFL Picks and Trends (2017)
