ELDORADO
Fun insights for sports fans and statheads alike
As seen on FiveThirtyEight ESPN Chalk ESPN Chalk ESPN Radio Nylon Calculus Raiders.com Lineups.com The Cauldron - Quoted in The New York Times ESPN Chalk ESPN Chalk FiveThirtyEight - Shared by The New York Times The Washington Post ESPN Chalk FiveThirtyEight Football Outsiders Football Outsiders Football Outsiders SB Nation SB Nation Football Perspective Pregame.com
The Lost Art of the Shitter Read
DEC 5 2018
DEC 5 2018
NFL PLAYOFFS
Against the Spread
LAC +4 is the only pick with positive expected value (+$2.90 EV, quite low)
<Last week's only such pick (PHI) won>
Moneyline
Every underdog this week has positive expected value, meaning the odds are overweighting the favorites relative to the models. Some much more than others though, so keep your eye on the expected values and percentages below.
In a typical "Searching for Value" weekly column, you'd see PHI +325 make the top five, and maybe LAC +170, but not DAL +260 or IND +190. The models give the Eagles a 30.4% chance to win at New Orleans, but it's priced like they have only a 23.5% chance, so there could be value there. Similar story for the Chargers (see below), and to a much lesser extent the Cowboys and Colts.
PHI +325 ($29.1 EV), 30.4% to win (models) vs 23.5% odds
LAC +170 ($18.3 EV), 43.8% to win (models) vs 37.0% odds
DAL +260 ($7.7 EV), 29.9% to win (models) vs 27.8% odds
IND +190 ($6.2 EV), 36.6% to win (models) vs 34.5% odds
<Last week: PHI +215 won, SEA +120 and HOU -130 lost>
ELDORADO
Searching for Value in Weekly NFL Picks and Futures
Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6 - Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12 - Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16
Year-to-Date ATS: 45-34-3 (+870) - Money Line: 27-56 (+1929, almost all dogs)
DEC 20 2018
Against the Spread
LAC +4 is the only pick with positive expected value (+$2.90 EV, quite low)
<Last week's only such pick (PHI) won>
Moneyline
Every underdog this week has positive expected value, meaning the odds are overweighting the favorites relative to the models. Some much more than others though, so keep your eye on the expected values and percentages below.
In a typical "Searching for Value" weekly column, you'd see PHI +325 make the top five, and maybe LAC +170, but not DAL +260 or IND +190. The models give the Eagles a 30.4% chance to win at New Orleans, but it's priced like they have only a 23.5% chance, so there could be value there. Similar story for the Chargers (see below), and to a much lesser extent the Cowboys and Colts.
PHI +325 ($29.1 EV), 30.4% to win (models) vs 23.5% odds
LAC +170 ($18.3 EV), 43.8% to win (models) vs 37.0% odds
DAL +260 ($7.7 EV), 29.9% to win (models) vs 27.8% odds
IND +190 ($6.2 EV), 36.6% to win (models) vs 34.5% odds
<Last week: PHI +215 won, SEA +120 and HOU -130 lost>
ELDORADO
Searching for Value in Weekly NFL Picks and Futures
Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6 - Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12 - Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16
Year-to-Date ATS: 45-34-3 (+870) - Money Line: 27-56 (+1929, almost all dogs)
DEC 20 2018
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FOR ESPN CHALK
Midseason NFL Betting Review: What We've Learned First-half trends, featuring the Rams and Saints, Niners and Chiefs, and noteworthy movement on the Super Bowl odds board NOV 9 2018 |
QUOTED ON ESPN CHALK
The Projected Impact of the 2018 NBA Offseason Plus win-total over/under trends, featuring LeBron James, the Lakers and Cavs, Warriors and Hawks, Spurs and Knicks OCT 11 2018 |
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FOR ESPN CHALK
What We Learned from 16 Years of NFL Win Total Over/Unders Analysis of NFL win totals and over/under trends (2002 to present) SEP 5 2018 |
FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
The Preseason Favorite Is a Good Bet to Lose the Super Bowl Analysis of preseason Super Bowl odds/results (2001 to present) AUG 22 2018 |
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ELDORADO
Your NFL Wins Pool Draft Order Needs Some Adjusting How to improve the "Bill Simmons draft order" AUG 29 2018 |
ELDORADO
Hard Knocks Affects NFL Teams Differently — Or Really Not At All The Hard Knocks effect (2001 to present) AUG 21 2018 |
ELDORADO
Now You Can Lose Money Betting on Sports Legally The odds are stacked way the hell against you MAY 17 2018 |
CULTURE
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Just How Much Does Tiger Woods Affect TV Ratings for The Masters?
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight APR 6 2018 |
AL PACINO VS. ROBERT DE NIRO
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Tale of the Tape
MAR 4 2018 |
NFL DRAFT AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL
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The Best Quarterback Draft Classes in NFL History
Or at least the most prolific in terms of era-adjusted yards APR 25 2018 |
NFL Draft History: Fun QB Draft Class Facts and Figures
The best, worst, longest, shortest, most, fewest, and so forth APR 25 2018 |
FIFA WORLD CUP
NBA WIN TOTALS
NBA DRAFT AND CHAMPIONS
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When You Wish Upon A Star (II)
Noteworthy NBA Championship Teams (Most Stars, Lone Stars, No Stars, Big 4s, 3s, and 2s) MAY 19 2016 |
POLITICS
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Irony Trumps Hate
Andrew Jackson is the only president with fewer American-born ancestors than Donald Trump NOV 23 2016 |
Don't Throw Away Your Old Debate Ties
Tie colors and memorable moments in presidential debate fashion history OCT 18 2016 |
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How TV Networks Color-Coded the Parties on Election Night
The history of red states and blue states on TV SEP 21 2016 |
This Is the Oldest U.S. Presidential Election in History - Or Is It?
Candidates' ages relative to life expectancy, from 1789 to 2016 AUG 5 2016 |
The Oldest and Youngest U.S. Presidential Candidates in History
Relative to life expectancy AUG 5 2016 |
COLLEGE BASKETBALL'S DOME EFFECT
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Teams Score Fewer Points in Domes - But Not for the Reasons You Think
ELDORADO for Nylon Calculus MAR 30 2017 |
Is The Dome Effect Real?
Do NCAA tournament teams shoot poorly in big domed football stadiums? MAR 16 2016 |
NBA ALL-STAR GAME
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Kobe Bryant Is the 2nd-Worst All-Star Starter in NBA History - Behind Himself
But we don't need stats to know he's a star FEB 11 2016 |
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The Biggest Snubs in NBA All-Star Game Voting History
(Starter snubs and top 5-10-15 vote snubs) FEB 11 2016 |
U.S. OLYMPIC BASKETBALL
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The 2016 U.S. Men's National Team Is an Average Version of Itself
And it's below average for a U.S. Olympic team. Should we worry? JUL 10 2016 |
Appendix I: Quality, Experience, and Continuity of USMNBTs since 1992
A little more experience and continuity detail than the main story JAN 20 2017 |
Appendix II: A Closer Look at the 1992, 2004, and 2016 USMNBTs
There's enough of a hint of 2004 on the 2016 roster to conjure up some worry JUL 10 2016 |
NFL RUSHING
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How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football? - Introduction
And other musings on rushing in the NFL MAY 4 2016 |
How Good Was O.J. Simpson at Football? - Analysis
And other musings on rushing in the NFL MAY 4 2016 |
O.J. Simpson's Pro Football Fame Was Mostly Based on Two Great Seasons
ELDORADO for FiveThirtyEight JUN 15 2016 |
SUPER BOWL SQUARES
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2018 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Eagles win probabilities impact your chances JAN 24 2018 |
2017 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Falcons win probabilities impact your chances JAN 24 2017 |
2016 Super Bowl Squares Odds
How historically weird scores and Panthers-Broncos win probabilities impact your chances JAN 30 2016 |
WEIRD NFL SCORES
NFL TRENDS
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NFL Margins of Victory in Four Charts
Games are close, scores are weird, common margins still reign JAN 31 2017 |
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Margins of Victory through NFL History
Despite its weird scores, 2015 had the most "normal" margins of victory in NFL history FEB 23 2016 |
A Complete History of NFL Points, Scores, and Scoring
(Super Bowl Box Redux: The Trends and Scores Behind the Story) JAN 27 2016 |
VEGAS
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Why Did Vegas Books Struggle for Part of the NFL Season?
Contributed perspective and analysis to David Purdum's story for ESPN Chalk MAR 7 2017 |
COIN VS. MACHINE: NFL PICKS & TRENDS
