NFL Week 9 | Coin vs. Machine
3-Model and 5-Model Unanimous Picks Went Undefeated Last Week
NOV 3 2017
Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6
Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12
Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16 - Week 17
Wild Card - Divisional - Conference - Super Bowl
3-Model and 5-Model Unanimous Picks Went Undefeated Last Week
NOV 3 2017
Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6
Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12
Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16 - Week 17
Wild Card - Divisional - Conference - Super Bowl
Welcome to Week 9 of Coin versus Machine. Let's hit two quick trends and then get right into the picks.
(Note: A couple of neighborhoods in San Francisco lost power yesterday, which delayed this post. I bring this up because at the end of the third paragraph following this one, I implied that it might only be worth tuning into NFL games this season for Deshaun Watson. Not long after I wrote that, the news hit that Watson suffered a season-ending injury. He was all the 2017 NFL season had, and now he’s gone.)
First theme up is favorites. Back in Week 6, favorites went 5-9 outright and 3-11 against the spread (ATS), falling to a horrific 36-54-1 ATS on the season. The tide has since turned considerably. In Week 7 – when no team was favored by 7.0 points or more – favorites went 12-3 outright and 9-4-2 ATS. And in Week 8 – which had the fourth-highest average line for any week since 2014 – they went 12-1 outright and 8-4-1 ATS. Carolina was the lone Week 8 underdog to win its game, and they were barely an underdog.
Second is points. Through the first eight weeks of the 2017 season, the average NFL game has served up 43.8 total points. That would be the lowest points-per-game total since 2009, and it runs counter to the “evermore passing-scoring-fun NFL” that we’d grown accustomed to over the past few years. Six of this season’s eight weeks have produced fewer points per game than the average game last season. [Despite these trends, the over has cashed just as much as the under in NFL games this season (59-59-1).]
NFL passing yards – which correlate heavily with scoring – are at their lowest levels since 2010. And rushing yards – which have been flirting with historic lows for the past few years – are at their lowest levels since 1999. Theories about poor quarterback play and porous offensive lines have been offered. Whatever the reason, let’s hope something gives. (Or only tune in when Deshaun Watson plays.) [Postscript: F*CK]
(Note: A couple of neighborhoods in San Francisco lost power yesterday, which delayed this post. I bring this up because at the end of the third paragraph following this one, I implied that it might only be worth tuning into NFL games this season for Deshaun Watson. Not long after I wrote that, the news hit that Watson suffered a season-ending injury. He was all the 2017 NFL season had, and now he’s gone.)
First theme up is favorites. Back in Week 6, favorites went 5-9 outright and 3-11 against the spread (ATS), falling to a horrific 36-54-1 ATS on the season. The tide has since turned considerably. In Week 7 – when no team was favored by 7.0 points or more – favorites went 12-3 outright and 9-4-2 ATS. And in Week 8 – which had the fourth-highest average line for any week since 2014 – they went 12-1 outright and 8-4-1 ATS. Carolina was the lone Week 8 underdog to win its game, and they were barely an underdog.
Second is points. Through the first eight weeks of the 2017 season, the average NFL game has served up 43.8 total points. That would be the lowest points-per-game total since 2009, and it runs counter to the “evermore passing-scoring-fun NFL” that we’d grown accustomed to over the past few years. Six of this season’s eight weeks have produced fewer points per game than the average game last season. [Despite these trends, the over has cashed just as much as the under in NFL games this season (59-59-1).]
NFL passing yards – which correlate heavily with scoring – are at their lowest levels since 2010. And rushing yards – which have been flirting with historic lows for the past few years – are at their lowest levels since 1999. Theories about poor quarterback play and porous offensive lines have been offered. Whatever the reason, let’s hope something gives. (Or only tune in when Deshaun Watson plays.) [Postscript: F*CK]
Looking Back at Week 8’s Picks
Three-model unanimous and five-model unanimous (Tier I “best bets”) picks ran the table last week. Both went 4-0 ATS. (It might sound odd, but the two sets of four were not identical. Minnesota, Philadelphia, New England, and Indianapolis were the three-model unanimous selections. Minnesota, Philadelphia, New England, and Kansas City were the Tier I “best bets.” Why? The three main models picked the Colts, but the other two did not. Four models picked the Chiefs and one had the line right at 7.0. That arrangement – four picks and one match – was originally categorized as Tier I. So in reality, "five-model unanimous" technically means “no model picked against the team.”)
Three-model unanimous and five-model unanimous (Tier I “best bets”) picks ran the table last week. Both went 4-0 ATS. (It might sound odd, but the two sets of four were not identical. Minnesota, Philadelphia, New England, and Indianapolis were the three-model unanimous selections. Minnesota, Philadelphia, New England, and Kansas City were the Tier I “best bets.” Why? The three main models picked the Colts, but the other two did not. Four models picked the Chiefs and one had the line right at 7.0. That arrangement – four picks and one match – was originally categorized as Tier I. So in reality, "five-model unanimous" technically means “no model picked against the team.”)
Minutiae aside, it was a big week for those two pick streams. Three-model unanimous picks improved to 26-18-1 against the spread on the season (59% win percentage), and five-model unanimous (Tier I “best bets”) improved to 17-8 against the spread (68% win percentage). They’re the clear leaders across models and tiers in the year-to-date pick standings. Is it fluke? Who knows, but it continues to be worth monitoring.
Tier II picks – which essentially carry four-model agreement – went 1-1-1 in Week 8. At 19-23-2 ATS this season, they remain the weak link in this overall pick scheme. Not only do they carry the weakest ATS record, they violate the notion that more consensus among the models should (or could or might) mean more success in picking against the spread. Tier I has shined in that regard, but Tier II has sucked wind.
Tier III picks went 2-1 ATS in Week 8 (8-7 YTD), Tier IV picks went 0-1 (8-7 YTD), and Tier V “toss-ups” went 0-2 (10-10 YTD). The coin – our totally random picks – went 6-6-1 and is 54-63-2 ATS on the season.
Tier II picks – which essentially carry four-model agreement – went 1-1-1 in Week 8. At 19-23-2 ATS this season, they remain the weak link in this overall pick scheme. Not only do they carry the weakest ATS record, they violate the notion that more consensus among the models should (or could or might) mean more success in picking against the spread. Tier I has shined in that regard, but Tier II has sucked wind.
Tier III picks went 2-1 ATS in Week 8 (8-7 YTD), Tier IV picks went 0-1 (8-7 YTD), and Tier V “toss-ups” went 0-2 (10-10 YTD). The coin – our totally random picks – went 6-6-1 and is 54-63-2 ATS on the season.
Looking Ahead to Week 9’s Picks
With six teams enjoying their byes, Week 9 features 13 games. The three main models agree on three picks – Arizona (-2.5) at San Francisco, Seattle (-7.0) versus Washington, and Kansas City (+2.5) at Dallas.
Week 9’s Tier I “best bet” is Philadelphia (-7.5) hosting Denver. Like Kansas City last week, the Eagles are not a three-model unanimous pick, in this case because the actual 7.5-point line matches FiveThirtyEight’s implied 7.5-point line. But in accordance with the tier definitions we set at the start of the season, four picks and a match qualifies as Tier I (i.e., the Eagles are Tier I this week because no model picked against them.)
Seven Week 9 NFL picks qualify is Tier II, which is quite a few. That might sound nice, but watch out for those, as they’re only 19-23-2 against the spread on the season. Houston went from 13-point favorites to 6.5- or 7.0-point favorites on the news of Deshaun Watson’s injury. With quarterback injuries in mind, I’ve tagged the Texans and Packers for exclusion. (They’d be Tier II picks at current levels otherwise.)
This week’s three-model majority (“machine”) picks are actually pretty stable plus or minus one-point line movement in either direction relative to what’s presented below. The Tiers might change if your lines differ, but marginal line movement or discrepancies wouldn’t alter this week’s machine (majority) picks.
With six teams enjoying their byes, Week 9 features 13 games. The three main models agree on three picks – Arizona (-2.5) at San Francisco, Seattle (-7.0) versus Washington, and Kansas City (+2.5) at Dallas.
Week 9’s Tier I “best bet” is Philadelphia (-7.5) hosting Denver. Like Kansas City last week, the Eagles are not a three-model unanimous pick, in this case because the actual 7.5-point line matches FiveThirtyEight’s implied 7.5-point line. But in accordance with the tier definitions we set at the start of the season, four picks and a match qualifies as Tier I (i.e., the Eagles are Tier I this week because no model picked against them.)
Seven Week 9 NFL picks qualify is Tier II, which is quite a few. That might sound nice, but watch out for those, as they’re only 19-23-2 against the spread on the season. Houston went from 13-point favorites to 6.5- or 7.0-point favorites on the news of Deshaun Watson’s injury. With quarterback injuries in mind, I’ve tagged the Texans and Packers for exclusion. (They’d be Tier II picks at current levels otherwise.)
This week’s three-model majority (“machine”) picks are actually pretty stable plus or minus one-point line movement in either direction relative to what’s presented below. The Tiers might change if your lines differ, but marginal line movement or discrepancies wouldn’t alter this week’s machine (majority) picks.
Tiered picks are based on the five models listed below (methodology)
Now let’s go find out whether the 2017 NFL season can survive without Deshaun Watson : (
The five models referenced are created by and sourced from FiveThirtyEight ("Elo"), Jeff Sagarin via USA Today ("Rating" and "Offense-Defense Method Projections"), RP-Excel.com ("R-P Excel I"), and NutshellSports.com ("Nutshell Sports NFL Ratings"). Lines are sourced from FootballLocks.com as of Nov 3 at 5pm PT. Data was compiled and analyzed by ELDORADO. All charts and graphics herein were created by ELDORADO.
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co
