NFL Week 15 | Coin vs. Machine
DEC 16 2017
Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6
Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12
Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16 - Week 17
Wild Card - Divisional - Conference - Super Bowl
DEC 16 2017
Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6
Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12
Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16 - Week 17
Wild Card - Divisional - Conference - Super Bowl
Welcome to Week 15 of Coin versus Machine. Three fun (meaty) facts for you before we dive in:
(1) Favorites went 6-10 against the spread (ATS) in Week 13 and 7-9 against the spread in Week 14, ending a six-week hot streak for them. It’s likely more coincidence than anything, but the season can now be neatly divided into three buckets with respect to favorites and underdogs: six weeks of underdog dominance, six weeks of favorite dominance, and now two weeks back to the underdogs.
Favorites didn’t break .500 against the spread in a single week from Weeks 1 through 6. They went 36-54-1 against the spread over that span. It looked like the year of the ‘dog. Then favorites finished over .500 in every week from Weeks 7 through 12, going 53-26-6 against the spread over that six-week stretch. They went 13-19 against the spread in Weeks 13 and 14. Let’s see what happens in Week 15.
(2) Steelers-Ravens (39-38) and Eagles-Rams (43-35) both totaled >75 points on Sunday. It was the first time there were two such games in a week since Week 13 of 2015, and the 4th such time since 2012.
(3) The Patriots were 11-point favorites at Miami on Monday night and lost the game outright, breaking late-season survivor-pool hearts around the country for a bunch of folks who were probably feeling pretty good about having held onto Brady and Belichick this deep into the season. I touched on this two weeks ago, but the Pats are now 1-5 against the spread this season when favored by 9.0 points or more. And they’re 3-3 outright in those games! The Patriots only 2017 losses have come when heavily favored.
If you’re curious, all other teams are 10-11 against the spread this season when favored by 9.0 or more. Pats excluded, that pretty much aligns with recent history. From 2012 to 2016, favorites of 9.0 or more went 89-95-2 against the spread, meaning they’ve covered about 47% to 48% over the past six years.
“Elite teams” that finished 14-2 or 13-3 covered those spreads 60% of the time (18-12 against the spread). But picking those right means you’d have to predict which teams are, in fact, going to go 14-2 or 13-3. New Orleans (-15.5), Jacksonville (-11.0), and Minnesota (-10.5) are all heavily favored in Week 15. The Saints and Jags already have four losses; Minnesota has three. Do you like any of them to cover?
(1) Favorites went 6-10 against the spread (ATS) in Week 13 and 7-9 against the spread in Week 14, ending a six-week hot streak for them. It’s likely more coincidence than anything, but the season can now be neatly divided into three buckets with respect to favorites and underdogs: six weeks of underdog dominance, six weeks of favorite dominance, and now two weeks back to the underdogs.
Favorites didn’t break .500 against the spread in a single week from Weeks 1 through 6. They went 36-54-1 against the spread over that span. It looked like the year of the ‘dog. Then favorites finished over .500 in every week from Weeks 7 through 12, going 53-26-6 against the spread over that six-week stretch. They went 13-19 against the spread in Weeks 13 and 14. Let’s see what happens in Week 15.
(2) Steelers-Ravens (39-38) and Eagles-Rams (43-35) both totaled >75 points on Sunday. It was the first time there were two such games in a week since Week 13 of 2015, and the 4th such time since 2012.
(3) The Patriots were 11-point favorites at Miami on Monday night and lost the game outright, breaking late-season survivor-pool hearts around the country for a bunch of folks who were probably feeling pretty good about having held onto Brady and Belichick this deep into the season. I touched on this two weeks ago, but the Pats are now 1-5 against the spread this season when favored by 9.0 points or more. And they’re 3-3 outright in those games! The Patriots only 2017 losses have come when heavily favored.
If you’re curious, all other teams are 10-11 against the spread this season when favored by 9.0 or more. Pats excluded, that pretty much aligns with recent history. From 2012 to 2016, favorites of 9.0 or more went 89-95-2 against the spread, meaning they’ve covered about 47% to 48% over the past six years.
“Elite teams” that finished 14-2 or 13-3 covered those spreads 60% of the time (18-12 against the spread). But picking those right means you’d have to predict which teams are, in fact, going to go 14-2 or 13-3. New Orleans (-15.5), Jacksonville (-11.0), and Minnesota (-10.5) are all heavily favored in Week 15. The Saints and Jags already have four losses; Minnesota has three. Do you like any of them to cover?
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Looking Back at Week 14’s Picks
The three-model majority (“machine”) pick went 9-7 against the spread in Week 14. It still hasn’t been more than two games above or below .500 since Week 5. It’s 104-98-6 ATS on the season (51%).
The intrigue here continues to lie with three-model unanimous and five-model unanimous picks. There were nine of the former last week, and those went 4-5 against the spread. Three-model unanimous picks were hovering around a 60% success rate through Week 8, but they’ve since faded down to 53%.
The two five-model unanimous picks (Tier I “best bets”) were Green Bay -3.0 at Cleveland and Houston -3.0 versus San Francisco. As noted here last week, the first one felt good and the second didn’t, given the lines account for Jimmy Garoppolo but the models generally don’t. The Packers gave us a classic love-it-or-hate-it overtime touchdown cover, and Houston lost outright. The tier is now 28-18-1 (61%). That’s still really good, but it’s been between nine and 11 games above .500 cumulatively since Week 8.
The three-model majority (“machine”) pick went 9-7 against the spread in Week 14. It still hasn’t been more than two games above or below .500 since Week 5. It’s 104-98-6 ATS on the season (51%).
The intrigue here continues to lie with three-model unanimous and five-model unanimous picks. There were nine of the former last week, and those went 4-5 against the spread. Three-model unanimous picks were hovering around a 60% success rate through Week 8, but they’ve since faded down to 53%.
The two five-model unanimous picks (Tier I “best bets”) were Green Bay -3.0 at Cleveland and Houston -3.0 versus San Francisco. As noted here last week, the first one felt good and the second didn’t, given the lines account for Jimmy Garoppolo but the models generally don’t. The Packers gave us a classic love-it-or-hate-it overtime touchdown cover, and Houston lost outright. The tier is now 28-18-1 (61%). That’s still really good, but it’s been between nine and 11 games above .500 cumulatively since Week 8.
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Looking Ahead to Week 15’s Picks
There are six three-model unanimous picks and five five-model unanimous (Tier I “best bets”) in Week 15. (As noted whenever it happens, one of the “five-model unanimous” picks is not “three-model unanimous.” On its face that doesn’t make sense, but it’s because the “five-model unanimous” category includes situations when four models pick a team against the spread and the other model’s prediction matches the game’s actual line. This week, Tampa is not three-model unanimous but they are still Tier I.)
The Colts already lost on Thursday night as a unanimous pick, so it’ll be an uphill battle for both categories on Saturday (two games), Sunday (12 games), and Monday (one game). As always, watch out for injuries that the lines factor in but the models do not. The Eagles, for example, are a five-model unanimous pick but lost starting quarterback Carson Wentz. (I still feel good about them at -7.5.)
And keep an eye on your lines relative to what’s listed below. The three-model majority (“machine”) pick is Minnesota -10.5 but Cincinnati +11.5; New Orleans -15.5 but NY Jets at +16.0; Miami at +3.5 but Buffalo at -2.5; Seattle -2.5 but LA Rams at +3.0; and Tampa +6.0 but Atlanta -5.0. (Or, as I’ve said here before, don’t worry too much about it because the machine pick is about as reliable as flipping a coin.)
For what it’s worth, New Orleans - 15.5 versus the Jets is the second-highest line of the season behind New England -16.5 versus Miami in Week 12, which the Pats covered – their only cover, as mentioned, against a line of 9.0 or more in six such games this season. Funny how the Jets went from being considered “feisty” to a total rollover thanks to a bad Sunday in Denver, which now looks strangely inspired. (I personally think that 15.5-point line is a bit of an overreaction. But we shall see!)
There are six three-model unanimous picks and five five-model unanimous (Tier I “best bets”) in Week 15. (As noted whenever it happens, one of the “five-model unanimous” picks is not “three-model unanimous.” On its face that doesn’t make sense, but it’s because the “five-model unanimous” category includes situations when four models pick a team against the spread and the other model’s prediction matches the game’s actual line. This week, Tampa is not three-model unanimous but they are still Tier I.)
The Colts already lost on Thursday night as a unanimous pick, so it’ll be an uphill battle for both categories on Saturday (two games), Sunday (12 games), and Monday (one game). As always, watch out for injuries that the lines factor in but the models do not. The Eagles, for example, are a five-model unanimous pick but lost starting quarterback Carson Wentz. (I still feel good about them at -7.5.)
And keep an eye on your lines relative to what’s listed below. The three-model majority (“machine”) pick is Minnesota -10.5 but Cincinnati +11.5; New Orleans -15.5 but NY Jets at +16.0; Miami at +3.5 but Buffalo at -2.5; Seattle -2.5 but LA Rams at +3.0; and Tampa +6.0 but Atlanta -5.0. (Or, as I’ve said here before, don’t worry too much about it because the machine pick is about as reliable as flipping a coin.)
For what it’s worth, New Orleans - 15.5 versus the Jets is the second-highest line of the season behind New England -16.5 versus Miami in Week 12, which the Pats covered – their only cover, as mentioned, against a line of 9.0 or more in six such games this season. Funny how the Jets went from being considered “feisty” to a total rollover thanks to a bad Sunday in Denver, which now looks strangely inspired. (I personally think that 15.5-point line is a bit of an overreaction. But we shall see!)
Tiered picks are based on the five models listed below (methodology)
Good luck and enjoy the week!
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The five models referenced are created by and sourced from FiveThirtyEight ("Elo"), Jeff Sagarin via USA Today ("Rating" and "Offense-Defense Method Projections"), RP-Excel.com ("R-P Excel I"), and NutshellSports.com ("Nutshell Sports NFL Ratings"). Lines are sourced from FootballLocks.com as of Dec 15 at 5pm ET. Data was compiled and analyzed by ELDORADO. All charts and graphics herein were created by ELDORADO.
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co
