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Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6 - Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12 - Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16
Probabilities to cover and win are sourced from the 50+ models on The Prediction Tracker. Against-the-spread expected values assume bets to win $100. Moneyline expected values assume bets that risk $100.
I. Against the Spread — Top 5 Value in Week 11
I'm showing New Orleans -9.0 (-110), below because that's what the models' "probability to cover" is based on, but the line has since moved to New Orleans -7.5 (-120). The lower line would increase the Saints' model-generated probability to cover, but the bigger vig would temper the expected return a bit. Even at -120, the Saints likely belong a little higher on this list given the line has since moved down this weekend. Seattle won and covered on Thursday against Green Bay. Seahawks -3.0 were this week's 6th-best pick. 1. WAS +3.0 vs. HOU, EV, 57.0% chance to cover, $14.1 expected return on $100 wager 2. TAM +3.0 at NYG, -110, 55.9%, $7.4 3. DET +4.5 vs. CAR, -110, 54.2%, $3.8 4. KC +3.5 at LAR, -110, 54.1%, $3.6 5. NOS -9.0 vs. PHI, -110, 52.8%, $0.8 TOP 5 VALUE Last Week: 3-2 (+90), Season: 25-23-2 (-20)
II. Money Line — Top 5 Value in Week 11
Moneyline value picks had a nice week last week, with Dallas winning (+300) at Philadelphia and Tennessee winning (+250) versus New England. We'll see whether that momentum can be maintained. 1. WAS +142 vs. HOU, 41% prob to win (odds), 51% prob to win (models), $24 expected return 2. DET +180 vs. CAR, 36%, 43%, $20 3. TAM +135 at NYG, 43%, 50%, $17 4. KC +150 at LAR, 40%, 46%, $14 5. DAL +170 at ATL, 37%, 41%, $12 TOP 5 VALUE Last Week: 2-3 (+250), Season: 17-33 (+1264) All but two selections were modest to heavy underdogs
III. Searching for Value in NFL Futures Bets
I'll refresh the expected-value futures board after Thanksgiving. You can peek back at Week 9's update, or check out my midseason NFL betting review on ESPN, which includes a discussion of Super Bowl odds. 
Moneyline odds via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (November 18). Point spreads and probabilities via The Prediction Tracker (November 18).
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