Searching for Value: Week 13 Picks and NFL Futures

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Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6 - Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12 - Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16

Probabilities to cover and win are sourced from the 50+ models on The Prediction Tracker. Against-the-spread expected values assume bets to win $100. Moneyline expected values assume bets that risk $100.

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I. Against the Spread — Top 5 Value in Week 13

This week's top five against-the-spread value picks are all underdogs, and all are pretty significant contrarian plays relative to the general public. We'll see how that pans out. Remember that the most models don't completely capture Washington's week-old situation at quarterback (i.e., Colt McCoy instead of Alex Smith). Washington just missed ATS last week (+7.5 at Dallas), and was hampered by a blown call.

1. JAX +4.0 vs. IND, -110, 56.82% chance to cover, $9.31 expected return on $100 wager
2. WAS +6.5 at PHI, -110, 56.79%, $9.26
3. CIN +4.5 vs. DEN, -110, 56.5%, $8.6
4. TAM +3.5 vs. CAR, -110, 55.5%, $6.5
5. BAL +1.5 at ATL, -110, 55.2%, $6.0

TOP 5 VALUE
Last Week: 3-2 (+70), Season: 32-25-3 (+450)

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II. Money Line — Top 5 Value in Week 13

All of Week 13's top five moneyline value plays are underdogs too, but we're used to seeing that here. Including this week, 63 of the 65 picks posted in this section have been underdogs. Top five moneyline value plays are 20-40 on the season, with +1004 net profit if we assume 100 was risked on each contest.

The discrepancies between the probabilities to win implied by the odds (first percentage listed below) and the probabilities to win implied by the models (second percentage listed below) are fairly wide this week. But remember, you should only like a team if you believe the models more than you believe the odds.

For example, the odds imply that Arizona (+650) has a 13% chance to win at Green Bay, whereas the models imply a 21% chance. And the odds imply that Oakland (+750) has a 12% chance to win at home versus Kansas City, whereas the models imply a 17% chance. To my eye, the models' probabilities seem kinda high. (Likewise for Detroit hosting the L.A. Rams.) But that's part of the fun of monitoring this stuff.

1. ARZ +650 at GBP, 13% prob to win (odds), 21% prob to win (models), $57 expected return
2. OAK +750 vs. KC, 12%, 17%, $42
3. CIN +200 vs. DEN, 33%, 46%, $39
4. DET +400 vs. LAR, 20%, 28%, $38
5. JAX +180 vs. IND, 36%, 48%, $35

​TOP 5 VALUE
​Last Week: 1-4 (-250), Season: 20-40 (+1064)
All but two selections were modest to heavy underdogs

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III. Searching for Value in NFL Futures Bets

Will update the futures grid for real this week. I'm targeting end of day Wednesday. Please stay tuned!

Moneyline odds via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (December 1. Point spreads and probabilities via The Prediction Tracker (December 1).

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