Searching for Value: Week 15 Picks and NFL Futures

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Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6 - Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12 - Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16

I wrote a long update for Week 14, including something of a recap of the recent success — and overall 2018 NFL season success — of these value picks. That success continued last week, with the top five weekly against-the-spread picks going 3-2 (+70) and the top five weekly moneyline picks going 2-3 (+500).

The moneyline boost came by way of Oakland (+500) beating Pittsburgh and Miami (+300) pulling off a miraculous last-play upset of New England. Baltimore (+250) lost in OT at Kansas City. Woulda been nice.

The system has been positive on the against-the-spread side in six of the last seven weeks, which rolls up to a season record of 38-29-3 (+600). And it's been positive on the moneyline side in four the last five weeks, good for a season mark of 24-46 (+2094), headlined by major upsets like Buffalo +1000 over Minnesota (Week 3), Arizona +650 over Green Bay (Week 13), and Oakland +500 over Pittsburgh (Week 14). 

All but two moneyline picks have been solid to heavy underdogs, hence the high profit via a losing record.

Probabilities to cover and win are sourced from the 50+ models on The Prediction Tracker. Against-the-spread expected values assume bets to win $100. Moneyline expected values assume bets that risk $100. 

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I. Against the Spread — Top 5 Value in Week 15

Starting last week, Washington has been excluded from the top five, as the change at quarterback has been too drastic for most models to capture (i.e., they still think Washington is good and misguidedly love them at prevailing spreads and moneyline levels each week). I probably should have manually removed them after the Alex Smith injury in Week 11, but I left them in in Weeks 12 and 13, and they went 0-2 ATS.

​1. DET +1.5 at BUF, EV, 56.7% chance to cover, $13.4 expected return on $100 wager
2. DEN -3.0 vs. CLE, EV, 54.8%, $9.6
3. CIN -3.0 vs. OAK, -110, 55.5%, $6.5
4. PIT +1.5 vs. NEP, -120, 57.3%, $6.1
5. SEA -4.5 at SFO, -110, 54.8%, $5.0

TOP 5 VALUE
Last Week: 3-2 (+70), Season: 38-29-3 (+600)

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II. Money Line — Top 5 Value in Week 15

All the usual commentary here. The models think that the Eagles have a 25.2% chance to win at the Rams, but their +500 moneyline odds pay out like it's a 16.7% chance. The models think that the Cardinals have a 27.1% chance to win at the the Falcons, but their +360 moneyline odds pay out like it's a 21.7% chance. And so on and so forth for the other games listed. So if you believe the models, there could be value below.

1. PHI +500 at LAR, 17% prob to win (odds), 25% prob to win (models), $51 expected return
2. ARZ +360 at ATL, 22%, 27%, $25
3. PIT +120 vs NEP, 45%, 56%, $23
4. NYJ +275 vs. HOU, 27%, 33%, $23
5. DET +120 at BUF, 45%, 55%, $21

TOP 5 VALUE
​Last Week: 2-3 (+500), Season: 24-46 (+2094)
All but two selections were modest to heavy underdogs

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III. Searching for Value in NFL Futures Bets

​I gave the futures board a hearty update last week, and almost every single result carried negative expected value, so let's sit it out this week. I'll aim to give it another good update this coming week.

Moneyline odds via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (December 13). Point spreads and probabilities via The Prediction Tracker (December 13).

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