Searching for Value: Week 10 Picks and NFL Futures

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Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6 - Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12 - Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16

Probabilities to cover and win are sourced from the 50+ models on The Prediction Tracker. Against-the-spread expected values assume bets to win $100. Moneyline expected values assume bets that risk $100.

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I. Against the Spread — Top 5 Value in Week 10

Chicago and San Francisco get an expected-value boost from the fact that they carry even pricing at Westgate (risk $100 to win $100), rather than the normal -110 (risk $110 to win $100). Cleveland (+6 vs Atlanta) and Cincinnati (+6 vs New Orleans) have higher probabilities to cover according to the 50+ models listed on The Prediction Tracker — 53.9% and 53.3%, respectively — but at -110, both get surpassed below.

​1. MIA +10.5 at GBP, -110, 57.9% chance to cover, $11.6 expected return on $100 wager
2. CHI -7.0 vs. DET, EV, 52.8%, $5.5
3. SEA +10.0 at LAR, -110, 54.5%, $4.4
4. TEN +6.5 vs. NEP, -110, 54.1%, $3.6
5. SFO -3.5 vs. NYG, EV, 51.7%, $3.4

TOP 5 VALUE
Last Week: 2-3 (-130), Season: 22-21-2 (-110)

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II. Money Line — Top 5 Value in Week 10

This week's moneyline value list includes all pretty considerable underdogs. Tennessee delivered last week +225 at Dallas but would only pay a hair more than that (+250) at home against New England today. Remember that regardless of what the models and math say, you would need to believe that the true probability of victory for any of these underdogs is greater than the probability implied by the odds.

The odds suggest that Arizona has a 9% chance to at Kansas City, while the models suggest a 12% chance. Do you really believe either? Most NFL fans would argue that the Cardinals have less than a 9% chance to win, which would make this stay-away at +1000. Sure, the Bills surprised the league with a +1000 win at Minnesota in Week 3 — as that week's top moneyline value play -- but does lightning really strike twice?

​1. MIA +425 at GBP, 19% prob to win (odds), 32% prob to win (models), $69 expected return
2. ARZ +1000 at KC, 9%, 12%, $34
3. DAL +300 at PHI, 25%, 33%, $31
4. TEN +250 vs. NEP, 29%, 38%, $31
5. SEA +350 at LAR, 22%, 29%, $30

​TOP 5 VALUE
​Last Week: 2-3 (-1), Season: 15-30 (+1014)
All selections thru Week 8 were modest to heavy underdogs

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III. Searching for Value in NFL Futures Bets

​I'll give the futures board a refresh in a week or two. In the meantime, peek back at last week's update, or check out my midseason NFL betting review on ESPN, which includes a discussion of Super Bowl odds.

Moneyline odds via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (November 11). Point spreads and probabilities via The Prediction Tracker (November 11).

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