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Last week's top five value plays went 4-1 (+290) against the spread despite relatively low expected values other than Buffalo. This week's expected values are even lower, as the 3rd, 4th, and 5th ATS value plays — Buffalo +7.5, Atlanta -5.5, and Kansas City -5.5 — wouldn't have cracked the top five in most other weeks.
Meanwhile, last week's top five moneyline value plays — all modest to heavy underdogs — went 1-4 (-225). The only win came by way of Miami (+170 vs. Chicago) in overtime. San Francisco (+350 at Green Bay) and Kansas City (+150 at New England) each went down the wire but came up short of the upset. So it goes. I'm going to skip the futures grid this week but will be back with an update ahead of Week 8. As weekly readers are aware, teams like Baltimore, Cincinnati, Washington, and Dallas carried some sneaky futures value through Week 4, but the oddsmakers have since caught up. There's little value to be had anymore. Probabilities to cover and win are sourced from the 50+ models on The Prediction Tracker. Against-the-spread expected values assume bets to win $100. Moneyline expected values assume bets that risk $100.
I. Against the Spread — Top 5 Value in Week 7
1. NYJ +3.5 vs. MIN, -110, 59.1% chance to cover, $14.2 expected return on $100 wager 2. CHI +3.0 vs. NEP, -110, 58.4%, $12.7 3. BUF +7.5 at IND, -110, 56.2%, $8.0 4. ATL -5.5 vs. NYG, -110, 54.5%, $4.4 5. KC -5.5 vs. CIN, -110, 54.1%, $3.5 TOP 5 VALUE Last Week: 4-1 (+290), Season: 16-12-2 (+280) 65%+ COVERS Last Week: 0-0, Season: 3-0 (+300) 60%+ COVERS Last Week: 1-0 (+100), Season: 6-8-2 (-290)
II. Money Line — Top 5 Value in Week 7
The models give the Jets a 53% chance to win at home against the Vikings, and the Bears a 53% chance to win at home against the Patriots. Their respective moneyline odds (+150, +142) imply about a 40% chance for each team to win. As always, if you agree with the models — or think that the chance of a team winning is greater than the probability implied by the odds -- then you might believe there's some value there. 1. BUF +275 at IND, 27% prob to win (odds), 38% prob to win (models), $42 expected return 2. SFO +400 vs. LAR, 20%, 27%, $37 3. NYJ +150 vs. MIN, 40%, 53%, $32 4. CHI +142 vs. NEP, 41%, 53%, $29 5. CAR +190 at PHI, 34%, 39%, $13 TOP 5 VALUE Last Week: 1-4 (-225), Season: 11-19 (+1490) All selections have been underdogs
III. Searching for Value in NFL Futures Bets
Back with an update next week. In the meantime, check out Week 6 to see how little value there is to be had (if you believe the probabilities). Or check out Week 1, Week 2, or Week 4 to see what you missed. 
Moneyline odds via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (October 17). Point spreads and probabilities via The Prediction Tracker (October 17).
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