Searching for Value: Conference Championships and Super Bowl Futures

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Against the Spread

At current Westgate odds (KC -3.0 -120, NO -3.5 -110, as Saturday at 1pm ET), none of the conference championship picks have positive expected value against the spread. If Chiefs -3.0 moves to -110 pricing, then they'd have some positive expected value ($3.1 on a bet to win $100), which would have been a "back end of the top five" ATS pick in some weeks this season.

The only other positive expected value ATS picks this playoffs were Eagles +6 at Bears (won) and Chargers +4 at Patriots (lost).

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Moneyline

The Chiefs (-170) are the only team with positive expected value on the moneyline ($1.3 on a bet that risks $100), and it certainly wouldn't have been enough to qualify is an actual pick during the season. Their -170 odds imply a 63.0% chance to win the game. The models on The Prediction Tracker gives them a 63.8% chance. (So yes, it's that thin, which is why the expected value is so low.) 

For every other team, the models project a lower chance to win than the odds, creating negative expected value.​

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Super Bowl Futures

Among the four remaining teams, those same Chiefs are the only ones with positive expected value on the Super Bowl futures board — if you believe the models, of course. If you average the Chiefs' probability to win the Super Bowl across Football Outsiders, ESPN FPI, and FiveThirtyEight, they have a 32.1% chance.

Westgate currently has Kansas City priced at +250 to win the Super Bowl, which implies a 28.6% chance. If you believe the models, then the Chiefs should be priced at +210. and probably even lower than that given the books wouldn't typically price them right at their probability to win (i.e., the books have to bake in a vig).

So right now, the Chiefs pay like they have a 28.6% chance, even though the models think they have a 32.1% chance. Risking $100 on the Chiefs to win $250 carries positive expected value of $12.35.    

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Regular Season Results  -  Against the Spread: 44-34-3 (+770)  -  Money Line: 26-54 (+1914, almost all dogs)
Net profit includes vigs  -  Assumes all bets "to win $100" (against the spread) and "risk $100" (moneyline)

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