Against the Spread
At current Westgate odds (KC -3.0 -120, NO -3.5 -110, as Saturday at 1pm ET), none of the conference championship picks have positive expected value against the spread. If Chiefs -3.0 moves to -110 pricing, then they'd have some positive expected value ($3.1 on a bet to win $100), which would have been a "back end of the top five" ATS pick in some weeks this season.
The only other positive expected value ATS picks this playoffs were Eagles +6 at Bears (won) and Chargers +4 at Patriots (lost).
The Chiefs (-170) are the only team with positive expected value on the moneyline ($1.3 on a bet that risks $100), and it certainly wouldn't have been enough to qualify is an actual pick during the season. Their -170 odds imply a 63.0% chance to win the game. The models on The Prediction Tracker gives them a 63.8% chance. (So yes, it's that thin, which is why the expected value is so low.)
For every other team, the models project a lower chance to win than the odds, creating negative expected value.
Super Bowl Futures
Among the four remaining teams, those same Chiefs are the only ones with positive expected value on the Super Bowl futures board — if you believe the models, of course. If you average the Chiefs' probability to win the Super Bowl across Football Outsiders, ESPN FPI, and FiveThirtyEight, they have a 32.1% chance.
Westgate currently has Kansas City priced at +250 to win the Super Bowl, which implies a 28.6% chance. If you believe the models, then the Chiefs should be priced at +210. and probably even lower than that given the books wouldn't typically price them right at their probability to win (i.e., the books have to bake in a vig).
So right now, the Chiefs pay like they have a 28.6% chance, even though the models think they have a 32.1% chance. Risking $100 on the Chiefs to win $250 carries positive expected value of $12.35.
Regular Season Results - Against the Spread: 44-34-3 (+770) - Money Line: 26-54 (+1914, almost all dogs)
Net profit includes vigs - Assumes all bets "to win $100" (against the spread) and "risk $100" (moneyline)
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