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Probabilities to cover and win are sourced from the 50+ models on The Prediction Tracker. Against-the-spread expected values assume bets to win $100. Moneyline expected values assume bets that risk $100.
I. Against the Spread — Top 5 Value in Week 10
Chicago and San Francisco get an expected-value boost from the fact that they carry even pricing at Westgate (risk $100 to win $100), rather than the normal -110 (risk $110 to win $100). Cleveland (+6 vs Atlanta) and Cincinnati (+6 vs New Orleans) have higher probabilities to cover according to the 50+ models listed on The Prediction Tracker — 53.9% and 53.3%, respectively — but at -110, both get surpassed below. 1. MIA +10.5 at GBP, -110, 57.9% chance to cover, $11.6 expected return on $100 wager 2. CHI -7.0 vs. DET, EV, 52.8%, $5.5 3. SEA +10.0 at LAR, -110, 54.5%, $4.4 4. TEN +6.5 vs. NEP, -110, 54.1%, $3.6 5. SFO -3.5 vs. NYG, EV, 51.7%, $3.4 TOP 5 VALUE Last Week: 2-3 (-130), Season: 22-21-2 (-110)
II. Money Line — Top 5 Value in Week 10
This week's moneyline value list includes all pretty considerable underdogs. Tennessee delivered last week +225 at Dallas but would only pay a hair more than that (+250) at home against New England today. Remember that regardless of what the models and math say, you would need to believe that the true probability of victory for any of these underdogs is greater than the probability implied by the odds. The odds suggest that Arizona has a 9% chance to at Kansas City, while the models suggest a 12% chance. Do you really believe either? Most NFL fans would argue that the Cardinals have less than a 9% chance to win, which would make this stay-away at +1000. Sure, the Bills surprised the league with a +1000 win at Minnesota in Week 3 — as that week's top moneyline value play -- but does lightning really strike twice? 1. MIA +425 at GBP, 19% prob to win (odds), 32% prob to win (models), $69 expected return 2. ARZ +1000 at KC, 9%, 12%, $34 3. DAL +300 at PHI, 25%, 33%, $31 4. TEN +250 vs. NEP, 29%, 38%, $31 5. SEA +350 at LAR, 22%, 29%, $30 TOP 5 VALUE Last Week: 2-3 (-1), Season: 15-30 (+954) All selections thru Week 8 were modest to heavy underdogs
III. Searching for Value in NFL Futures Bets
I'll give the futures board a refresh in a week or two. In the meantime, peek back at last week's update, or check out my midseason NFL betting review on ESPN, which includes a discussion of Super Bowl odds. 
Moneyline odds via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (November 11). Point spreads and probabilities via The Prediction Tracker (November 11).
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Probabilities to cover and win are sourced from the 50+ models on The Prediction Tracker. Against-the-spread expected values assume bets to win $100. Moneyline expected values assume bets that risk $100.
I. Against the Spread — Top 5 Value in Week 9
Against-the-spread value plays continued their weekly swings last week, coming in at 3-2. Bad as the Bills have been, they hung around long enough against the Patriots to tease Buffalo +14.0 backers into thinking they had a chance, but it was ultimately for naught. The other top-five ATS loss came by way of the Rams -9.0 at "home" against the Packers because Todd Gurley passed up a late touchdown to run out the clock. As you can see in the dollar values below, finding positive expected value is becoming more and more difficult, and the magnitude of that expected value is shrinking every week. Early in the season, there were often 12+ games with positive ATS expected value, and those games carried an average expected return of over $11. We were merely listing the top five here, and through Week 3 those plays were 9-5-1 (+350). In recent weeks, only a handful of games have featured positive expected value, and those values have been relatively low. This week, there are only five positive expected value plays, all are muted, and the Jets barely clock in above projected breakeven. Put another way, there is less and less perceived opportunity between what the 50+ models think and the odds and point spreads published by the books. 1. NEP -5.5 vs. GBP, -110, 55.9% chance to cover, $7.3 expected return on $100 wager 2. BUF +10.0 vs. CHI, -110, 54.9%, $5.2 3. SFO -3.0 vs. OAK, -110, 54.2%, $3.9 4. WAS -1.5 vs. ATL, -110, 54.0%, $3.4 5. NYJ +3.0 at MIA, -110, 52.4%, $0.04 TOP 5 VALUE Last Week: 3-2 (+80), Season: 20-18-2 (+20)
II. Money Line — Top 5 Value in Week 9
On the moneyline side, the top five value plays went 1-4 for the fifth straight week — a remarkably consistent and unprofitable run. As I repeat here every week, every play to date has been a modest to heavy underdog, so losing records are not as bad as they look. In fact, the top five moneyline value plays listed here each week are 13-27 on the season, but equal $100 wagers on those would still have you +955. The problem is that a five-week run at 1-4 has eaten into what were peak running profits after Week 3 (+2065). Buffalo served up two nice wins earlier in the season, +1000 at Minnesota (Week 3) and +215 versus Tennessee (Week 5). They haven't won since but keep showing up in the top five because the models like them a little bit more than the oddsmakers do. Sometimes futility just takes a little while to flow through. For the first time all season, two favorites have made the top five moneyline value plays — the models think San Francisco a 64% chance to win on Thursday versus Oakland, whereas their -135 odds imply a 57% chance. And the models think Washington has a 60% chance to win at home versus Atlanta, whereas their -125 odds suggest a 56% chance. If you agree with the models, then you might see some value there. 1. BUF +400 vs. CHI, 20% prob to win (odds), 30% prob to win (models), $50 expected return 2. SFO -135 vs. OAK, 57%, 64%, $12 3. CLE +350 vs. KC, 22%, 25%, $11 4. TEN +225 at DAL, 31%, 33%, $8.1 5. WAS -125 vs. ATL, 56%, 60%, $7.6 TOP 5 VALUE Last Week: 1-4 (-265), Season: 13-27 (+955) All selections thru Week 8 were modest to heavy underdogs
III. Searching for Value in NFL Futures Bets
The last time I updated the futures grid was Week 6, and by then, we were seeing already scarce value pretty much disappear. Houston (+400), Washington (+275) and Chicago (+160) carried a bit of value as division winners, and all now lead their divisions as we near the midway point of the season. Houston has since compressed to -240, erasing the value there. Washington and Chicago still have some, but it's small. Carolina, meanwhile, has emerged as a potential value play. The models give the Panthers a 31.1% chance to win the NFC South, while the odds (+250) imply 28.6%. If you believe the models, then Carolina might also be interesting to win the NFC — the models give them a 9.0% chance, while the odds (+1200) suggest 7.7%. I didn't run the table last week, but I suspect the Panthers' expected values were even better then. The Rams seem like the NFC's juggernaut, and the Saints are currently a strong second fiddle. But if you believe that there's only a two-in-three chance that one of them wins the conference — as the models below suggest — then you might be able to sniff around the likes of Carolina, Washington, or Chicago. Just make sure you feel like whatever odds you're getting are adequately compensating you for your moves. In other words, you'd need to think that Carolina (+1200) has better than a 7.7% chance to win the NFC, Washington (+2500) has better than a 3.8% chance, and Chicago (+3000) has better than a 3.2% chance. There are other super long shots below with high expected values — because the models give them a fractional chance, whereas the odds have them even closer to zero — but those are not worth entertaining. If you were feeling really saucy, maybe you could talk yourself into throwing something tiny at Denver +50000 to win the AFC West, but you'd then have to pray for a Chiefs-and-Chargers apocalypse. 
Westgate odds as of Oct 31. Probabilities reflect the average across ESPN FPI, Football Outsiders, and Massey-Peabody. ESPN FPI does not publish probabilities to win the conference, so they are excluded for that category.
The against-the-spread pendulum continued to swing last week, as the top five ATS value plays followed a 4-1 Week 6 with a 1-4 Week 7. Top five ATS value plays are now 17-16-2 (-60) on the season, supporting the theory that apart from heightening games' entertainment value, this is all a big, random, waste of time.
And after delivering major profit and intrigue in the first three weeks of the NFL season by going 8-7 (+2065) on modest to heavy underdog bets, the top five moneyline "value" plays have gone 1-4 for four straight weeks — pretty much exactly what we'd expect of teams with roughly a one in five chance to win. Probabilities to cover and win are sourced from the 50+ models on The Prediction Tracker. Against-the-spread expected values assume bets to win $100. Moneyline expected values assume bets that risk $100.
I. Against the Spread — Top 5 Value in Week 8
1. BUF +14.0 vs. NEP, -110, 57.2% chance to cover, $10.1 expected return on $100 wager 2. LAR -9.0 vs. GBP, -110, 55.7%, $7.1 3. WAS +0.0 at NYG, -110, 55.2%, $5.9 4. PIT -8.0 vs. CLE, -110, 55.0%, $5.5 5. CAR -2.5 vs. BAL, EV, 52.6%, $5.2 TOP 5 VALUE Last Week: 1-4 (-340), Season: 17-16-2 (-60) 65%+ COVERS Last Week: 0-0, Season: 3-0 (+300) 60%+ COVERS Last Week: 0-0, Season: 6-8-2 (-290)
II. Money Line — Top 5 Value in Week 8
Miami obviously already lost on Thursday Night Football, and I can't imagine anyone actually thinks the Bills have a 23.5% chance to win outright at home against the Patriots, which is how the 50+ models on The Prediction Tracker see it — and why Buffalo has the highest expected moneyline value this week. I said the same thing before the Bills beat the Vikings as 10-to-1 underdogs in Week 3, and they delivered as the number one moneyline value play that week, so who the hell knows. But it seems pretty insane here. On the other hand, I don't think it's entirely unreasonable to talk yourself into the Jets having a better than 24% chance to win at Chicago, Seattle better than a 43% chance to win at Detroit, or the Jaguars better than a 40% chance to beat the Eagles in London — all of which are the win probabilities implied by current Westgate odds. If you think their win probabilities are better than those, you might see some value there. 1. BUF +800 vs. NEP, 11% prob to win (odds), 23.5% prob to win (models), $111 expected return 2. MIA +290 at HOU, 26%, 35%, $36 3. NYJ +325 at CHI, 24%, 32%, $35 4. SEA +135 at DET, 43%, 47%, $11 5. JAX +150 vs. PHI, 40%, 43%, $8 (London) TOP 5 VALUE Last Week: 1-4 (-210), Season: 12-23 (+1220) All selections have been underdogs
III. Searching for Value in NFL Futures Bets
I'm publishing this late afternoon Saturday, so it's not worth diving into futures when they're going to change in 24 hours. I'll publish earlier next week and we can take a full and proper mid-season look then. 
Moneyline odds via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (October 27). Point spreads and probabilities via The Prediction Tracker (October 27).
Last week's top five value plays went 4-1 (+290) against the spread despite relatively low expected values other than Buffalo. This week's expected values are even lower, as the 3rd, 4th, and 5th ATS value plays — Buffalo +7.5, Atlanta -5.5, and Kansas City -5.5 — wouldn't have cracked the top five in most other weeks.
Meanwhile, last week's top five moneyline value plays — all modest to heavy underdogs — went 1-4 (-225). The only win came by way of Miami (+170 vs. Chicago) in overtime. San Francisco (+350 at Green Bay) and Kansas City (+150 at New England) each went down the wire but came up short of the upset. So it goes. I'm going to skip the futures grid this week but will be back with an update ahead of Week 8. As weekly readers are aware, teams like Baltimore, Cincinnati, Washington, and Dallas carried some sneaky futures value through Week 4, but the oddsmakers have since caught up. There's little value to be had anymore. Probabilities to cover and win are sourced from the 50+ models on The Prediction Tracker. Against-the-spread expected values assume bets to win $100. Moneyline expected values assume bets that risk $100.
I. Against the Spread — Top 5 Value in Week 7
1. NYJ +3.5 vs. MIN, -110, 59.1% chance to cover, $14.2 expected return on $100 wager 2. CHI +3.0 vs. NEP, -110, 58.4%, $12.7 3. BUF +7.5 at IND, -110, 56.2%, $8.0 4. ATL -5.5 vs. NYG, -110, 54.5%, $4.4 5. KC -5.5 vs. CIN, -110, 54.1%, $3.5 TOP 5 VALUE Last Week: 4-1 (+290), Season: 16-12-2 (+280) 65%+ COVERS Last Week: 0-0, Season: 3-0 (+300) 60%+ COVERS Last Week: 1-0 (+100), Season: 6-8-2 (-290)
II. Money Line — Top 5 Value in Week 7
The models give the Jets a 53% chance to win at home against the Vikings, and the Bears a 53% chance to win at home against the Patriots. Their respective moneyline odds (+150, +142) imply about a 40% chance for each team to win. As always, if you agree with the models — or think that the chance of a team winning is greater than the probability implied by the odds -- then you might believe there's some value there. 1. BUF +275 at IND, 27% prob to win (odds), 38% prob to win (models), $42 expected return 2. SFO +400 vs. LAR, 20%, 27%, $37 3. NYJ +150 vs. MIN, 40%, 53%, $32 4. CHI +142 vs. NEP, 41%, 53%, $29 5. CAR +190 at PHI, 34%, 39%, $13 TOP 5 VALUE Last Week: 1-4 (-225), Season: 11-19 (+1430) All selections have been underdogs
III. Searching for Value in NFL Futures Bets
Back with an update next week. In the meantime, check out Week 6 to see how little value there is to be had (if you believe the probabilities). Or check out Week 1, Week 2, or Week 4 to see what you missed. 
Moneyline odds via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (October 17). Point spreads and probabilities via The Prediction Tracker (October 17).
Week 5 was nondescript to slightly down from a value bet perspective. The top five against-the-spread plays went 2-2-1 (-$20), while the top five moneyline plays (all underdogs) went 1-4 (-$185), with losses somewhat muted by another Buffalo Bills win, this time +215 versus the theretofore 3-1 Tennessee Titans.
Week 6 features the 2018 season's most competitive matchups from an oddsmaking perspective, with an average line of 4.2 points, the lowest of the year. Eleven of 15 games feature a line of 3.5 points or less. In any case, I think this week's real intrigue rests with the futures grid below, which has grown extremely dire as the season has progressed. Scroll down and look at all that red. Good luck finding value there. Probabilities to cover and win are sourced from the 50+ models on The Prediction Tracker. Against-the-spread expected values assume bets to win $100. Moneyline expected values assume bets that risk $100.
I. Against the Spread — Top 5 Value in Week 6
1. BUF +10.0 at HOU, -110, 60.2% chance to cover, $16.4 expected return on $100 wager 2. SFO +9.5 at GBP, -110, 57.5%, $10.7 3. SEA -2.5 at OAK, EV, 55.3%, $10.6 (London) 4. NYJ -2.0 vs. IND, -110, 56.6%, $8.9 5. LAR -6.5 at DEN, -110, 55.2%, $6.0 TOP 5 VALUE Last Week: 2-2-1 (-20), Season: 12-11-2 (-10) 65%+ COVERS Last Week: 0-0, Season: 3-0 (+300) 60%+ COVERS Last Week: 0-2-1 (-220), Season: 5-8-2 (-390)
II. Money Line — Top 5 Value in Week 6
1. BUF +375 at HOU, 21% prob to win (odds), 37% prob to win (models), $75 expected return 2. SFO +350 at GBP, 22%, 34%, $54 3. ARZ +375 at MIN, 21%, 27%, $26 4. KC +150 at NEP, 40%, 49%, $23 5. MIA +170 vs CHI, 37%, 43%, $16 TOP 5 VALUE Last Week: 1-4 (-185), Season: 10-15 (+1655) All selections have been underdogs
III. Searching for Value in NFL Futures Bets
As noted above, the futures board is now almost entirely red. Two weeks ago, you could still sniff out some value in Baltimore and Cincinnati, or perhaps Washington and Dallas. But even those have faded.
Cincinnati's 23-to-1 to win the AFC has become 11-to-1, and their 50-to-1 to win it all is now 25-to-1. Dallas was 5-to-1 to win the NFC East ahead of Week 4, but they're now just 3-to-1. Baltimore and Washington's odds have compressed. Of the four, only the Ravens are still mildly interesting as Super Bowl long shots anymore; the models give them a 4.6% chance, which is better than the 3.8% implied by their 25-to-1 odds. Remember that these expected values are only as reliable as your faith in the models that produce them. If you think the Bears have a 54% chance to win the NFC Central, and 11% chance to win the conference, or a 5% chance to win the Super Bowl, then you might find value at +160 (division), +1200 (conference), or +2500 (Super Bowl). In all cases, the models like the Bears a little bit better than the oddsmakers do. 
Westgate odds as of Oct 11. Probabilities reflect the average across ESPN FPI, Football Outsiders, and Massey-Peabody. ESPN FPI does not publish probabilities to win the conference, so they are excluded for that category.
This time last year, I looked at the projected impact of the 2017 NBA offseason and explored NBA win-total over/under trends and franchise results. (Last month, I did the same on the NFL side for ESPN Chalk.)
I'm back with an NBA update for 2018. The table below compares NBA teams' win-total over/unders for the upcoming season (2018-19) with their actual win totals from last season (2017-18). You can think of it as an over/under-based proxy for how each NBA team fared during the 2018 offseason. Here are the results: 
And here are a few key observations. (The 2011-12 season is analyzed on an 82-game equivalent basis.)
LeBron Goes West, NBA Wins Follow - Not surprisingly, LeBron James's move to Los Angeles from Cleveland is projected to supercharge the Lakers (+12.5 wins) and punish the Cavs (-19.0 wins). At least he delivered Cleveland that title in 2016. - The Western Conference projects to win 43 more games than the Eastern Conference, which would represent the largest imbalance since 2013-14. The last time the East won more games was 2008-09. - According to Westgate, the West projects to improve by 18 wins over last season, and the East projects to decline by one win. (That's not possible in reality; over/unders usually overestimate actual wins.) - Vegas projected that LeBron's 2003-04 Cavs would improve by 12.5 wins (they went over by 5.5), 2010-11 Heat by 17.5 wins (under by 6.5), 2014-15 Cavs by 25.5 wins (under by 5.5), and 2018-19 Lakers by 12.5 wins.
The Lakers, Warriors, and Recent Over/Under History
- The Lakers' expected improvement of 12.5 wins ties a handful of teams for the 15th highest projected increase since the 2002 offseason — including, as we saw, the 2003-04 Cavaliers after drafting LeBron. - The biggest projected improvements since 2002 belong to the 2014-15 Cavaliers (+25.5 projected wins upon LeBron's return) and the 2007-08 Celtics (+25.5 wins with the addition of Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett). - Since 2002-03, Vegas has projected that 21 other NBA teams would improve by 12.5 wins or more. The over/under results are pretty split. Ten went over by an average of 7.2 wins, and 11 went under (5.8 wins). - The 2018-19 Warriors are the 9th team since 2002-03 with an over/under of 60+ wins. Only two of the previous eight have gone over — the 2016-17 Warriors (66.5, won 67) and the 2012-13 Heat (60.5, won 66). The Cavaliers, Hawks, and Recent Over/Under History - The Cavaliers' expected decline of 19 wins is the 6th highest projected drop since the 2002 offseason. - The top five projected declines since 2002 include the 2010-11 Cavs (-30.5 wins, LeBron's first exit), 2014-15 Pacers (-22.5, Paul George injury), 2015-16 Blazers (-22.5, LaMarcus Aldridge left), 2012-13 Magic (-22.5, Dwight Howard left), and 2003-04 Jazz (-21.5, John Stockton retired and Karl Malone left for the Lakers). - Since 2002-03, Vegas has projected that 11 other NBA teams would decline by 15.0 wins or more. Seven have gone over their total by an average of 8.6 wins, while four have gone under by an average of 5.0 wins. - The 2018-19 Hawks project to win 22.5 games, tied for the 15th lowest projection since 2002-03. Bad as nearly all have been, 13 of 16 still went over their win total — so not quite as bad as the books implied.
God Help the Knicks, God Bless the Spurs
- As a Knicks fan who clings to memories of Patrick Ewing, Charles Oakley, John Starks, and even Latrell Sprewell, you must allow me the opportunity to wallow in Knicks misery every chance I get. (An example.) - Since 2005-06 (and probably earlier than that), the Knicks have underperformed their Vegas win-total over/under by an average of 5.3 games per season, worst in the NBA. Yet offseason after offseason, Vegas projected that those same lowly Knicks would improve by an average of 4.6 wins, best in the NBA. Needless to say, progress has rarely come. The Knicks have gone under their win total 69% of the time. - The Clippers (85%) and Kings (77%) have gone under most often, but with less magnitude than New York. - If the Knicks are the Cleveland Browns, then the Spurs are, of course, the New England Patriots. Starting with the 2005 offseason, Vegas forecast a Spurs decline in 12 of 14 seasons (most in the NBA) to the tune of 4.5 wins per year (most in the NBA). Despite a lofty average over/under of 54.3 wins (most in the NBA), the Spurs went over 77% of the time (tied for most) and overperformed by 3.7 wins per year (2nd to Utah). 
Historical win-total over/unders are sourced from Sports Odds History. Current over/unders are from Westgate (October 8). Data was compiled and analyzed by ELDORADO. All charts and graphics herein were created by ELDORADO.
After a dominant Week 3, value picks (predictably) came back down to earth in Week 4, though a couple of plays could have swung things the other way. The top five against-the-spread value picks were 1-4 last week, with the Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) and Cleveland Browns (+2.5) both losing by a field goal in overtime.
The top five money-line plays were also 1-4, and while those were all modest to heavy underdogs, the only winner of the five was the dog with the weakest payout, the Cincinnati Bengals (+175) at Atlanta. The San Francisco 49ers (+400) came close to a big money-line win, but they lost 29-27 at the L.A. Chargers.
Changing how expected values are shown
From here on out, I'm going to change the way I show expected value to make it more intuitive. Rather than show what a $100 bet is "expected to turn into" in total dollar terms, I'll show the expected return on that $100 wager — above $0 (positive) is good (win money), and below $0 (negative) is bad (lose money). Here's an example. This week, the Panthers have a 61.8% to cover (-6.0, -110) at home against the Giants. So folks backing the Panthers have a 61.8% chance to win $100 and a 38.2% chance to lose $110. That means that the expected return on a Panthers bet that risks $110 to win $100 is $19.7, highest this week. And here's the math behind that: (61.8% chance CAR covers x $100 win if CAR covers) - (38.2% chance NYG covers x $110 loss if NYG covers) = $19.7 expected return on an ATS wager that risks $110 to win $100. Probabilities to cover and win are sourced from the 50+ models aggregated on The Prediction Tracker. Against-the-spread expected values assume bets "to win $100." Money-line expected values assume bets "that risk $100."
I. Against the Spread — Top 5 Value in Week 5
Whereas last week saw four road underdogs among the top five against-the-spread value plays, Week 5 includes four favorites and three home teams, with a couple of other noteworthy considerations mixed in. First, beyond Carolina, San Francisco, and Baltimore, this week's expected values are pretty low. The Chargers have the fourth highest expected return at $9.8, which wouldn't have cracked the top five in any other week. Showing a "top five" is pretty arbitrary, so keep those absolute dollars in mind as you review. You can also see how important odds are. Baltimore has this week's highest probability to cover (-3.0), but because they're -120 at that level at Westgate, their expected value falls a few dollars behind Carolina and San Francisco's. If Baltimore were -110 at -3.0, they'd have this week's highest value against-the-spread. Pick, Spread, Opponent, Odds, Probability to Cover (50+ Models), Expected Return on $100 Bet 1. CAR, -6.0, vs. NYG, -110, 61.8%, $19.7 2. SFO, -3.5, vs. ARZ, -110, 61.6%, $19.4 3. BAL, -3.0, at CLE, -120, 61.9%, $16.1 4. LAC, -5.5, vs. OAK, -110, 57.1%, $9.8 5. DAL, +3.5, at HOU, -120, 58.6%, $9.0 TOP 5 VALUE - Last Week: 1-4 (-340), Season: 10-9-1 (+10) 65%+ COVERS - Last Week: 0-0, Season: 3-0 (+300) 60%+ COVERS - Last Week: 1-3 (-230), Season: 5-6-1 (-170)
II. Money Line — Top 5 Value in Week 5
Pick, Odds, Opponent, Prob. to Win (Odds), Prob. to Win (50+ Models), Expected Return of $100 Bet 1. IND, +500, at NEP, 17%, 27%, $64 2. SEA, +300, vs LAR, 25%, 33%, $34 3. BUF, +215, vs TEN, 32%, 40%, $25 4. DAL, +150, at HOU, 40%, 49%, $23 5. WAS, +225, at NOS, 31%, 34%, $10 TOP 5 VALUE - Last Week: 1-4 (-225), Season: 9-11 (+1840) All selections have been underdogs
III. Searching for Value in NFL Futures Bets
Back next week under revised format 
Moneyline odds via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (October 6). Point spreads and probabilities via The Prediction Tracker (October 6).
Let's start with a delicious look back at Week 3, when upsets ran rampant in the NFL. Buffalo won as a 10-to-1 underdog in Minnesota. Tennessee won as a 3.75-to-1 underdog in Jacksonville. Detroit won as a 2.5-to-1 underdog versus New England. The N.Y. Giants won as a 2.15-to-1 underdog at Houston. And if you read this column and followed last week's top money-line value picks, you would have won them all.
A $100 wager on each of those four teams would have won $1,840. And a $100 four-team money-line parlay on those four teams would have won an absurd $57,506. That almost certainly won't happen again. Nevertheless, through the NFL season's first three weeks, the weekly top five money-line value bets — all modest to major underdogs — are a sterling 8-7. A hypothetical $100 on each would have you up $2,065. Following the value has also fared well against-the-spread, albeit without the dollar pop of heavy-underdog money-line odds. The weekly top five against-the-spread value plays are 9-5-1, or +$350. A few fun facts for you as we head into Week 4. Since 2002 — the start of the NFL's 32-team, eight-division era — 3-0 teams make the playoffs 68% of the time, 2-1 teams (52%), 1-2 teams (24%), and 0-3 teams (0%). The 2007 Giants are the only team during that period to start 1-2 and make the Super Bowl, and they won. Probabilities to cover and win are sourced from the 50+ models aggregated on The Prediction Tracker. Against-the-spread expected values assume bets "to win $100." Money-line expected values assume bets "that risk $100."
I. Against the Spread — Top 5 Value in Week 4
Pick, Spread, Opponent, Odds, Probability to Cover (50+ Models) 1. BUF, +9.5, at GBP, -110, 63.9% 2. IND, -1.5, vs. HOU, -110, 61.8% 3. MIA, +6.5, at NEP, -110, 61.1% 4. SFO, +10.0, at LAC, -110, 60.3% 5. CLE, +2.5, at OAK, even, 55.0% TOP 5 VALUE - Last Week: 3-2 (+80), Season: 9-5-1 (+350) 65%+ COVERS - Last Week: 0-0, Season: 3-0 (+300) 60%+ COVERS - Last Week: 0-2 (-220), Season: 4-3-1 (+60)
II. Money Line — Top 5 Value in Week 4
Pick, Odds, Opponent, Prob. to Win (Odds), Prob. to Win (50+ Models) 1. SFO, +400, at LAC, 20%, 33% 2. BUF, +325, at GBP, 24%, 38% 3. MIA, +250, at NEP, 29%, 45% 4. NYJ, +300, at JAX, 25%, 33% 5. CIN, +175, at ATL, 36%, 43% TOP 5 VALUE - Last Week: 4-1 (+1740), Season: 8-7 (+2065) All selections have been underdogs
III. Searching for Value in NFL Futures Bets
I skipped futures values last week but am back with them ahead of Week 4. The biggest futures news probably rests with the San Francisco 49ers, who opened the season at 20-to-1 to win the NFC, but have since fallen to 500-to-1 after starting 1-2 and losing Jimmy Garoppolo. The odds now imply a 0.2% to win the conference. If you still think they have a better chance than that, you might find value at 500-to-1.
More serious value considerations potentially include Miami and the Jets, Baltimore and Cincinnati, and Dallas and Washington. On average, ESPN FPI, Football Outsiders, and Massey-Peabody Analytics give those teams higher probabilities to win the AFC/NFC or Super Bowl than the betting odds imply. Again, I'm not suggesting the Jets are going to win the Super Bowl — only that there might be value at 200 to 1. Feel like a stretch? That's for you to decide. As always, remember that the expected values shown below — and all others above — are only as good as your faith in the probabilities set forth by the models. 
Westgate odds as of Sep 27. Probabilities above reflect the average ESPN FPI, Football Outsiders, and Massey-Peabody probabilities. ESPN FPI does not publish probabilities to win the conference, so they are excluded for that category.
Data was compiled and analyzed by ELDORADO. All charts and graphics herein were created by ELDORADO.
The original version of this article framed expected value in terms of what a hypothetical $100 wager "would turn into." For example, if you were expected to lose $10, I showed the resulting expected value as $90, or $10 less than $100. I've since updated this to show the "expected return" on that $100 wager. So in that same example, the expected value now shows as negative $10. This is much more intuitive — positive expected values are good, and negative expected values are bad.
Let's dive straight into this week's top five value plays according to the methods outlined in Week 1 and Week 2. I'm skipping futures this week but will be back with them next week. (Sorry, day job's been crazy.)
Value plays did really well in Week 1 and pretty well in Week 2, both against-the-spread and on the money line. Picking against the Giants and Texans — both of which the models viewed as overvalued by oddsmakers — paid dividends as top five picks in both weeks. Top five money-line value plays are 2-3 in both weeks, all via underdogs (TB, NYJ in Week 1; KC, TEN in Week 2), so they're comfortably in the black. The three picks with at least a 65% chance to cover across the 50+ models on The Prediction Tracker are now 3-0 on the season (+300), including the Patriots and Eagles in Week 1, and an unpopular but victorious Titans selection in Week 2. Picks with at least a 60% chance to cover are now 4-1-1 on the season (+280). This week's value plays and season-to-date results are listed below. Probabilities to cover and win are sourced from the 50+ models aggregated on The Prediction Tracker, then applied to current odds.
I. Against the Spread — Top 5 Value in Week 3
1. Philadelphia -6.5 vs. Indianapolis (-110) — 62% chance to cover 2. Tampa Bay +2.0 vs. Pittsburgh (-110) — 60% chance to cover 3. Baltimore -5.5 vs. Denver (-110) — 59.4% chance to cover 4. Washington +2.5 vs. Green Bay (-110) — 59.3% chance to cover 5. Arizona +5.0 vs. Chicago (-110) — 58.8% chance to cover On its face, backing Washington and Arizona doesn't feel great here. The models are probably underestimating Green Bay and Chicago given last year's poor performances, and they could be overestimating Arizona and Washington, the former thanks to last season (8-8) and the latter thanks to Week 1's convincing but likely overinflated drubbing of the Cardinals, who've scored six points all season. But one of the goals here is to take emotion out of the equation. So there they are. Let's see how they do. TOP 5 VALUE - Last Week: 2-2-1 (-20), Season: 6-3-1 (+270) 65%+ COVERS - Last Week: 1-0 (+100), Season: 3-0 (+300) 60%+ COVERS - Last Week: 2-0 (+200), Season: 4-1-1 (+280)
II. Money Line — Top 5 Value in Week 3
1. Buffalo: +1000 at Minnesota — 18% chance to win 2. N.Y. Giants: +215 at Houston — 41% chance to win 3. Detroit: +250 vs. New England — 36% chance to win 4. Tennessee: +375 at Jacksonville — 24% chance to win 5. L.A. Chargers: +260 at L.A. Rams — 31% chance to win Keep in mind that these (and everything else) are only as good as your faith in the probabilities put forth by the models. The 50+ models on The Prediction Tracker give the Bills an 18% chance to win in Minnesota. If you agree with that, then there's really good value in the Bills at +1000. But most folks think the Bills chances are close to nil. Even the 9% probability of a Bills win implied by the money line seems to high. TOP 5 VALUE - Last Week: 2-3 (+60), Season: 4-6 (+325) All selections have been underdogs 
Moneyline odds via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (September 22). Point spreads and probabilities via The Prediction Tracker (September 21).
The original version of this article framed expected value in terms of what a hypothetical $100 wager "would turn into." For example, if you were expected to lose $10, I showed the resulting expected value as $90, or $10 less than $100. I've since updated this to show the "expected return" on that $100 wager. So in that same example, the expected value now shows as negative $10. This is much more intuitive — positive expected values are good, and negative expected values are bad.
Hope everyone's having a nice weekend and looking forward to Week 2. I'll try to get this up earlier in the week in the future, and for simplicity's sake, I'm going to try to streamline the flow as much as possible.
Every week, I'll summarize top five against-the-spread value plays and top five moneyline value plays. Both are based on teams' aggregate probabilities to cover or win across the 50+ NFL prediction models on The Prediction Tracker. I apply those probabilities to Westgate odds to produce expected values. I'll also post an updated summary of NFL futures values for all 32 NFL teams. In this case, I'm applying teams' average probabilities to win the division, conference, and Super Bowl across ESPN FPI, Football Outsiders, and Massey-Peabody Analytics to their Westgate futures odds to produce expected values. I am not suggesting that you bet these. In fact, the expected value of all of the futures below is negative. Good luck trying to win when the odds are literally stacked against you. Nevertheless, I find it interesting to see where the value potentially lies. (Please revisit Week 1 for more information about methodology.)
I. Against the Spread — Top 5 Value in Week 2
1. Tennessee +3.0 vs. Houston (even) — 70% chance to cover 2. Dallas -3.0 vs. N.Y. Giants (-110) — 62% chance to cover 3. New Orleans -9.5 vs. Cleveland (-110) — 59.3% chance to cover 4. Minnesota -0.0 at Green Bay (-110) — 59.2% chance to cover 5. Baltimore -0.0 at Cincinnati (-110) — 58.9% chance to cover For the second week in a row, the team playing the Houston Texans has the highest expected value against the spread, and the teams playing the N.Y. Giants and Cleveland Browns aren't far behind. That suggests that oddsmakers and the public like the Texans, Giants, and Browns more than the models do. That makes sense given that the models often look to last season as a baseline, when the Texans were injured, the Giants were bad, and the Browns were horrific. We'll see how things shake out in Week 2. Baltimore already lost at Cincinnati on Thursday night. Top five value plays were 4-1 in Week 1 (+390). LAST WEEK: 4-1 (+290) 65%+ COVERS: 2-0 (+200) 60%+ COVERS: 2-1-1 (+80)
II. Money Line — Top 5 Value in Week 2
1. Arizona: +750 at L.A. Rams — 23% chance to win 2. Tennessee: +145 vs. Houston — 62% chance to win 3. Buffalo: +280 vs. L.A. Chargers — 38% chance to win 4. Kansas City: +215 at Pittsburgh — 41% chance to win 5. Oakland: +240 at Denver — 38% chance to win These plays went 2-3 in Week 1, but because the list included underdogs (mostly heavy underdogs), that sub-.500 outcome would have generated meaningful profit. The Jets won as +250 underdogs at Detroit and the Bucs won as +375 underdogs at New Orleans. The Bears almost won (+260) at Green Bay, too. The plays listed here each week will almost certainly be underdogs. That's because the models think certain games are a bit more balanced than high moneyline odds imply. Check out Arizona for example. At +750, the odds suggest that the Cardinals have a 12% chance to win at the Rams, whereas the models suggest a 23% chance. A 23% chance to win $750 on a $100 wager equates to an expected return of $95.5. LAST WEEK: 2-3 (+325)
III. Searching for Value in NFL Futures Bets
When reviewing the table below, remember that the expected values listed are only as good as your faith in the probabilities that produce them. For example, if you think Washington really has a 3.0% chance to win the Super Bowl, then there is good value to be had at +5000 (50 to 1). But if you instead think Washington has a 2.0% chance at the Lombardi Trophy, you should view them as fairly priced at +5000. All this really does is compare the models' average probability of a certain event to the probability implied by Westgate's current odds. When the models' average probability is higher than the odds-implied probability, the expected value (or return on your wager) will be positive. There are very few such bets. Good value doesn't mean an event is likely. It just means you think it's more likely than the odds suggest. After last week's performance, the models believe the Jets have a 20% to win the AFC East, whereas New York's +1000 odds suggest a 9% chance. Value? Depends what you believe. Same logic for everything else. 
Note: Westgate did not have NFC North odds or a Vikings-Packers line as of September 15. I used 5dimes for those this week instead.
The primary data sources for this article were the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (odds as of September 15), ESPN Football Power Index, Football Outsiders, Massey-Peabody Analytics, and The Prediction Tracker. Data was compiled and analyzed by ELDORADO. All charts and graphics herein were created by ELDORADO.
The original version of this article framed expected value in terms of what a hypothetical $100 wager "would turn into." For example, if you were expected to lose $10, I showed the resulting expected value as $90, or $10 less than $100. I've since updated this to show the "expected return" on that $100 wager. So in that same example, the expected value now shows as negative $10. This is much more intuitive — positive expected values are good, and negative expected values are bad.
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