Vegas's Favorite and Least Favorite NBA Franchises
NOV 6 2017
Introduction
I. Projected Impact of the 2017 NBA Offseason
II. Vegas's Favorite and Least Favorite NBA Franchises
III. The Most Overrated and Underrated NBA Franchises
NOV 6 2017
Introduction
I. Projected Impact of the 2017 NBA Offseason
II. Vegas's Favorite and Least Favorite NBA Franchises
III. The Most Overrated and Underrated NBA Franchises
When the dust settles on an NBA season, fans are left to digest what was and what might have been. And after a summer of draft picks, trades, free agency, and player development, fans and Vegas are left to project how each team will perform in the upcoming season.
Bookmakers do that by setting win totals (over-unders) for every team before the new season starts, effectively capturing how many games the market thinks a team will win. (There are differences of opinion, of course, and fans can bet “over” or “under” those totals.) Those win totals are a good proxy for how the market views each NBA team’s offseason, or how much hype surrounds certain franchises.
Bookmakers do that by setting win totals (over-unders) for every team before the new season starts, effectively capturing how many games the market thinks a team will win. (There are differences of opinion, of course, and fans can bet “over” or “under” those totals.) Those win totals are a good proxy for how the market views each NBA team’s offseason, or how much hype surrounds certain franchises.
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I looked back at every offseason since 2005 to see which NBA teams Vegas tends to think will improve or decline in the season to come. I specifically compared each team’s actual win total in the previous season to Vegas’s projected win totals for them in the upcoming season (“next season”).
Here’s a quick example. When the Cleveland Cavaliers re-acquired LeBron James (and traded for Kevin Love) during the 2014 offseason, Vegas projected that they’d go from 33 wins in the 2013-14 regular season to 58.5 wins in the 2014-15 regular season. (This ties the Boston Celtics’ memorable 2007 Ray Allen-Kevin Garnett offseason for the biggest projected season-to-season improvement since at least 2002.)
So which NBA teams does Vegas usually expect to rise and fall from one season to the next?
I looked back at every offseason since 2005 to see which NBA teams Vegas tends to think will improve or decline in the season to come. I specifically compared each team’s actual win total in the previous season to Vegas’s projected win totals for them in the upcoming season (“next season”).
Here’s a quick example. When the Cleveland Cavaliers re-acquired LeBron James (and traded for Kevin Love) during the 2014 offseason, Vegas projected that they’d go from 33 wins in the 2013-14 regular season to 58.5 wins in the 2014-15 regular season. (This ties the Boston Celtics’ memorable 2007 Ray Allen-Kevin Garnett offseason for the biggest projected season-to-season improvement since at least 2002.)
So which NBA teams does Vegas usually expect to rise and fall from one season to the next?
Next Year Will Be Better, Right? – The Timberwolves and Knicks
Since 2005, Vegas projected that the Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Charlotte Hornets, and Golden State Warriors would improve from one season to the next 77% of the time. The Wolves and Knicks take the cake handily in terms of “by how many games” Vegas generally expected them to improve.
Minnesota has averaged 28.2 wins per season since 2004-05 – worst in the NBA. But year after year after year, Vegas thought things would get better. Vegas had them pegged for 8.5-win improvement in 2008-09 and 2010-11, 12-win improvement in 2011-12, 7.0 in 2012-13, 9.5 in 2013-14, 11.5 in 2015-16, 12.5 in 2016-17, and 15.5 in 2017-2018. (They’ve beaten their Vegas win total mark only three times in 12 years.)
New York has averaged 33.1 wins per season since 2004-2005 – 5th-worst in the NBA. But thanks to New York hype and the misguided notion that Carmelo Anthony could (maybe? one day? never mind) mature into the leader of a good team, Vegas consistently anticipated that “next year” would mean progress for the Knicks. (The Knicks are the NBA’s most overrated franchise since at least 2005.)
Since 2005, Vegas projected that the Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Charlotte Hornets, and Golden State Warriors would improve from one season to the next 77% of the time. The Wolves and Knicks take the cake handily in terms of “by how many games” Vegas generally expected them to improve.
Minnesota has averaged 28.2 wins per season since 2004-05 – worst in the NBA. But year after year after year, Vegas thought things would get better. Vegas had them pegged for 8.5-win improvement in 2008-09 and 2010-11, 12-win improvement in 2011-12, 7.0 in 2012-13, 9.5 in 2013-14, 11.5 in 2015-16, 12.5 in 2016-17, and 15.5 in 2017-2018. (They’ve beaten their Vegas win total mark only three times in 12 years.)
New York has averaged 33.1 wins per season since 2004-2005 – 5th-worst in the NBA. But thanks to New York hype and the misguided notion that Carmelo Anthony could (maybe? one day? never mind) mature into the leader of a good team, Vegas consistently anticipated that “next year” would mean progress for the Knicks. (The Knicks are the NBA’s most overrated franchise since at least 2005.)
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What Goes Up Must Come Down, Right? – The Spurs and Mavericks
It’s easier, of course, for consistently bad teams to attract the expectation of a few more wins. That’s a lot harder for teams to do when they’re always good. And sure enough, the San Antonio Spurs – this century’s best franchise by a country mile – qualify as Vegas’s “least likely to improve” from one season to the next. Since 2005, bookmakers thought the Spurs’ win total would decline in the coming season 85% of the time.
San Antonio has averaged almost 60 wins per season since 2000-2001, and they’ve had one of the three best records in the NBA in 13 of the last 16 seasons (and one of the five best in 15 of the last 16 seasons). Nevertheless, in precisely the opposite manner as the Knicks, Vegas always believed that “next year” would mean 5-game slippage for the Spurs. The end of the Spurs’ run as elite was always nigh, but it never came.
The Dallas Mavericks endured (enjoyed?) a similar experience. Vegas projected the 50-win-a-year Mavs – this century’s second-best franchise by another country mile – to slip in 77% of seasons since 2005. Nevertheless, Dallas went over its Vegas win total projection in eight of the past 12 seasons. (They’ve only recently fallen from an elite run that began in 2000-01, Dirk Nowitzki’s third NBA season.)
It’s easier, of course, for consistently bad teams to attract the expectation of a few more wins. That’s a lot harder for teams to do when they’re always good. And sure enough, the San Antonio Spurs – this century’s best franchise by a country mile – qualify as Vegas’s “least likely to improve” from one season to the next. Since 2005, bookmakers thought the Spurs’ win total would decline in the coming season 85% of the time.
San Antonio has averaged almost 60 wins per season since 2000-2001, and they’ve had one of the three best records in the NBA in 13 of the last 16 seasons (and one of the five best in 15 of the last 16 seasons). Nevertheless, in precisely the opposite manner as the Knicks, Vegas always believed that “next year” would mean 5-game slippage for the Spurs. The end of the Spurs’ run as elite was always nigh, but it never came.
The Dallas Mavericks endured (enjoyed?) a similar experience. Vegas projected the 50-win-a-year Mavs – this century’s second-best franchise by another country mile – to slip in 77% of seasons since 2005. Nevertheless, Dallas went over its Vegas win total projection in eight of the past 12 seasons. (They’ve only recently fallen from an elite run that began in 2000-01, Dirk Nowitzki’s third NBA season.)
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And In Some Cases Actually Does – The Phoenix Suns
Bookmakers had the Phoenix Suns penciled to decline with the same frequency as the Mavs (77%) – and with greater magnitude, on average, than every team in the NBA. For nine straight seasons from 2007-08 to 2015-16, Vegas projected that the Suns would win fewer games than they did the season before. But whereas the Spurs and Mavs mostly defied regression expectations, the Suns trended downward.
Phoenix tumbled from elite to bad over the period, though its win total only actually fell in five of the aforementioned nine seasons, and they outdid their projection in three of them. That includes 2013-14, when Vegas expected the Suns to follow a 25-win season with 20.5 wins, and they instead won 48. (That ranks high on the lists of best season-to-season improvements and most noteworthy "overs.")
Part III: The Most Overrated and Underrated NBA Franchises
Bookmakers had the Phoenix Suns penciled to decline with the same frequency as the Mavs (77%) – and with greater magnitude, on average, than every team in the NBA. For nine straight seasons from 2007-08 to 2015-16, Vegas projected that the Suns would win fewer games than they did the season before. But whereas the Spurs and Mavs mostly defied regression expectations, the Suns trended downward.
Phoenix tumbled from elite to bad over the period, though its win total only actually fell in five of the aforementioned nine seasons, and they outdid their projection in three of them. That includes 2013-14, when Vegas expected the Suns to follow a 25-win season with 20.5 wins, and they instead won 48. (That ranks high on the lists of best season-to-season improvements and most noteworthy "overs.")
Part III: The Most Overrated and Underrated NBA Franchises
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The main sources for this article are Basketball-Reference.com and SportsOddsHistory.com. Data was compiled and analyzed by ELDORADO. All charts and graphics herein were created by ELDORADO.
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co
