The Most Overrated and Underrated NBA Franchises
NOV 6 2017
Introduction
I. Projected Impact of the 2017 NBA Offseason
II. Vegas's Favorite and Least Favorite NBA Franchises
III. The Most Overrated and Underrated NBA Franchises
NOV 6 2017
Introduction
I. Projected Impact of the 2017 NBA Offseason
II. Vegas's Favorite and Least Favorite NBA Franchises
III. The Most Overrated and Underrated NBA Franchises
In the previous section, we examined which NBA franchises Vegas typically thinks will improve or decline from one season to the next. Those lists were headlined by hopeful bottom-dwellers like the Timberwolves and Knicks and underappreciated elites like the Spurs and Mavs, who Vegas always seemed to think would regress from their lofty perch by a handful of games (despite the Spurs' refusal to budge). The focus of this section is cousin to the previous.
Here we’ll be comparing teams’ actual win totals in a given season to their projected win totals for that very same season. In other words, did a team outperform (go over) or underperform (go under) its Vegas win projections? In doing so, we can see which NBA teams commonly fail to meet expectations that are set too high (overrated teams) and which commonly exceed expectations that are set too low (underrated teams).
Here we’ll be comparing teams’ actual win totals in a given season to their projected win totals for that very same season. In other words, did a team outperform (go over) or underperform (go under) its Vegas win projections? In doing so, we can see which NBA teams commonly fail to meet expectations that are set too high (overrated teams) and which commonly exceed expectations that are set too low (underrated teams).
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Here again is an example. After re-acquiring LeBron James (and trading for Kevin Love) during the 2014 offseason, the Cleveland Cavaliers were projected to win 58.5 regular-season games in 2014-15. They ended up winning 53 games that year, which means they underperformed their expected total. In that regard – and despite the fact they won the East – they were a little overrated at the start of the season.
(To reiterate for clarity’s sake – the previous page compared teams’ projected win totals in the upcoming season to their actual win totals the season before – essentially capturing what the market thought of their offseason and how much hype surrounded them heading into the new season. So for that same Cavs team, we compared their expected jump from 33 wins in 2013-14 to 58.5 projected wins in 2014-15.)
So which NBA franchises does Vegas overrate and underrate?
The New York Knicks Are the Most Overrated Franchise in the NBA
The Knicks averaged 33.1 wins per season from 2005-06 to 2016-17 – 6th-worst in the NBA. Their performance fell an average of 5.6 games short of Vegas’s projections – the worst underperformance in the league. New York missed expectations by 9.0 wins in 2004-05, 18.5 in 2005-06, 14.5 in 2007-08, 0.5 in 2008-09, 2.5 in 2009-10, 6.8 in 2011-12, 13.0 in 2013-14, 23.0 in 2014-15, and 7.5 in 2016-17.
In short – and by these measures – the Knicks earned the title of the most overrated team in the NBA precisely because Vegas thought they were going to be a little shy of mediocre but instead they sucked. Nothing captures the Isiah Thomas and Carmelo Anthony eras in New York quite like those words.
As touched on the previous page, this is likely due to some combination of New York hype – which could drive up the Knicks’ over-unders, even if their fan base’s expectations have been beaten to a pulp by this point – and, to repeat myself, the misguided notion that Carmelo Anthony could (maybe? one day? never mind) mature into the leader of a good team. (I am not in the camp that ever harbored that notion.)
The Minnesota Timberwolves finish a close second to the Knicks in terms of average underperformance (aka overratedness), coming up short by 5.4 wins per year. And the Los Angeles Clippers take home the title of “most frequently overrated,” finishing under their Vegas win total in 10 of the past 12 seasons (83% of the time). The only two times the Clips hit the over during the period were 2005-2006 and 2012-13.
(In five of Chris Paul’s six seasons with the Clippers, the team finished between 0.5 and 3.5 wins below lofty 50-56-57-56-53-51-win expectations. So they were really good but consistently overrated by a few games. I could have picked on the Clips a little more as the most frequently overrated franchise, but it’s more fun and – as a lifelong Knicks fan and Starks-til-I-die cat – cathartic to write this shit about the Knicks.)
The Knicks averaged 33.1 wins per season from 2005-06 to 2016-17 – 6th-worst in the NBA. Their performance fell an average of 5.6 games short of Vegas’s projections – the worst underperformance in the league. New York missed expectations by 9.0 wins in 2004-05, 18.5 in 2005-06, 14.5 in 2007-08, 0.5 in 2008-09, 2.5 in 2009-10, 6.8 in 2011-12, 13.0 in 2013-14, 23.0 in 2014-15, and 7.5 in 2016-17.
In short – and by these measures – the Knicks earned the title of the most overrated team in the NBA precisely because Vegas thought they were going to be a little shy of mediocre but instead they sucked. Nothing captures the Isiah Thomas and Carmelo Anthony eras in New York quite like those words.
As touched on the previous page, this is likely due to some combination of New York hype – which could drive up the Knicks’ over-unders, even if their fan base’s expectations have been beaten to a pulp by this point – and, to repeat myself, the misguided notion that Carmelo Anthony could (maybe? one day? never mind) mature into the leader of a good team. (I am not in the camp that ever harbored that notion.)
The Minnesota Timberwolves finish a close second to the Knicks in terms of average underperformance (aka overratedness), coming up short by 5.4 wins per year. And the Los Angeles Clippers take home the title of “most frequently overrated,” finishing under their Vegas win total in 10 of the past 12 seasons (83% of the time). The only two times the Clips hit the over during the period were 2005-2006 and 2012-13.
(In five of Chris Paul’s six seasons with the Clippers, the team finished between 0.5 and 3.5 wins below lofty 50-56-57-56-53-51-win expectations. So they were really good but consistently overrated by a few games. I could have picked on the Clips a little more as the most frequently overrated franchise, but it’s more fun and – as a lifelong Knicks fan and Starks-til-I-die cat – cathartic to write this shit about the Knicks.)
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The San Antonio Spurs Are the Most Underrated Franchise in the NBA
San Antonio been really good since 1989-90, save for a 20-62 season in 1996-97 that won them the first overall pick, Tim Duncan, and two more decades of excellence. As covered in the previous section, the Spurs are this century’s most successful NBA franchise by a country mile, winning nearly 72% of their games and finishing with one of three best regular-season records in the NBA in 13 of the last 16 seasons.
And yet bookmakers and fans never seem to think they’re going to keep it up. From 2005-06 to 2016-17, the Spurs’ average Vegas win total projection headed into the new NBA season was 54.4 games – very good, but not “San Antonio great.” Over that period, the Spurs instead averaged 58.9 wins per season, going “over” their Vegas win total projection in 10 of the past 12 seasons, or in 83% of seasons played.
San Antonio crushed the over by the equivalent of 11.8 games in 2011-12, 11.5 in 2010-11, and 10.5 in 2015-16, and they beat it by between 2.0 and 6.5 games seven times. They fell short by 4.5 games in 2009-10 (won 50 against an over-under of 54.5) and 2.0 games in 2014-15 (won 55 against an over-under of 57).
San Antonio been really good since 1989-90, save for a 20-62 season in 1996-97 that won them the first overall pick, Tim Duncan, and two more decades of excellence. As covered in the previous section, the Spurs are this century’s most successful NBA franchise by a country mile, winning nearly 72% of their games and finishing with one of three best regular-season records in the NBA in 13 of the last 16 seasons.
And yet bookmakers and fans never seem to think they’re going to keep it up. From 2005-06 to 2016-17, the Spurs’ average Vegas win total projection headed into the new NBA season was 54.4 games – very good, but not “San Antonio great.” Over that period, the Spurs instead averaged 58.9 wins per season, going “over” their Vegas win total projection in 10 of the past 12 seasons, or in 83% of seasons played.
San Antonio crushed the over by the equivalent of 11.8 games in 2011-12, 11.5 in 2010-11, and 10.5 in 2015-16, and they beat it by between 2.0 and 6.5 games seven times. They fell short by 4.5 games in 2009-10 (won 50 against an over-under of 54.5) and 2.0 games in 2014-15 (won 55 against an over-under of 57).
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Big Market Hype?
Take it for what it’s worth, but the 10 most overrated franchises since 2005-06 include both New York teams, both Los Angeles teams, Chicago, Washington and Philadelphia – that’s seven of the 10 biggest TV markets by population, according to Nielsen. And it’s enough to make you wonder whether Vegas win totals get inflated for big-market clubs, perhaps because fans of those teams bid up their teams’ over-unders. (Miami is a mid-sized market but its “sexy” could very well cause the same phenomenon to occur.)
The TV market theme is a little less pronounced among underrated franchises, but there could still be something there. The 10 most underrated franchises since 2005-06 include San Antonio, Utah, Portland, and Memphis – representing four of the eight smallest NBA TV markets. (Toronto and Dallas – both home to underrated NBA franchises – are big but lack the NBA shine of New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago.)
Take it for what it’s worth, but the 10 most overrated franchises since 2005-06 include both New York teams, both Los Angeles teams, Chicago, Washington and Philadelphia – that’s seven of the 10 biggest TV markets by population, according to Nielsen. And it’s enough to make you wonder whether Vegas win totals get inflated for big-market clubs, perhaps because fans of those teams bid up their teams’ over-unders. (Miami is a mid-sized market but its “sexy” could very well cause the same phenomenon to occur.)
The TV market theme is a little less pronounced among underrated franchises, but there could still be something there. The 10 most underrated franchises since 2005-06 include San Antonio, Utah, Portland, and Memphis – representing four of the eight smallest NBA TV markets. (Toronto and Dallas – both home to underrated NBA franchises – are big but lack the NBA shine of New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago.)
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The main sources for this article are Basketball-Reference.com and SportsOddsHistory.com. Data was compiled and analyzed by ELDORADO. All charts and graphics herein were created by ELDORADO.
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co