The Projected Impact of the 2017 NBA Offseason
OCT 30 2017
Introduction
I. Projected Impact of the 2017 NBA Offseason
II. Vegas's Favorite and Least Favorite NBA Franchises
III. The Most Overrated and Underrated NBA Franchises
OCT 30 2017
Introduction
I. Projected Impact of the 2017 NBA Offseason
II. Vegas's Favorite and Least Favorite NBA Franchises
III. The Most Overrated and Underrated NBA Franchises
The NBA calendar is now year-round, with the Finals extending as late as the Summer Solstice and NBA free agency commencing on July 1. Recent offseasons have seen monumental player movement (Kevin Durant signed with the Golden State Warriors in 2016, LeBron James signed with the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2015). And while no moves are quite as big as those, this summer had its share of change and intrigue.
Cleveland and Boston – who met in the Eastern Conference Finals in May – swapped Kyrie Irving and Isaiah Thomas (et al); Oklahoma City traded for Paul George in July and Carmelo Anthony in September; the L.A. Clippers traded Chris Paul to Houston; Chicago traded Jimmy Butler to Minnesota; Gordon Hayward signed with the Boston Celtics; Paul Millsap signed with the Denver Nuggets; and on and on. The 2017 NBA Draft Class was also generally regarded as strong, offering further prospects for improvement to teams that selected immediate-impact players.
Cleveland and Boston – who met in the Eastern Conference Finals in May – swapped Kyrie Irving and Isaiah Thomas (et al); Oklahoma City traded for Paul George in July and Carmelo Anthony in September; the L.A. Clippers traded Chris Paul to Houston; Chicago traded Jimmy Butler to Minnesota; Gordon Hayward signed with the Boston Celtics; Paul Millsap signed with the Denver Nuggets; and on and on. The 2017 NBA Draft Class was also generally regarded as strong, offering further prospects for improvement to teams that selected immediate-impact players.
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So how did this all shake out? Which teams got better or worse and by how much? Which teams does Vegas project to win more games than they did last season, and which teams does Vegas expect to win fewer?
The Minnesota Timberwolves are viewed the "most improved" team of the 2017 offseason, followed by the Philadelphia 76ers. Many felt Minnesota robbed the Chicago Bulls in a draft-night trade for Jimmy Butler (though the player the Bulls drafted with Minnesota's pick, Lauri Markkanen, is off to a great start). The Wolves also added Jeff Teague, Jamal Crawford, and Taj Gibson in free agency. Together with the improvement of Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns, the market sees a jump from 31 wins in 2016-2017 to 46.5 in 2017-2018 for Coach Tom Thibodeau's squad. That ties for the 10th-best projected improvement since 2002 (477 teams).
The Wolves' draft-night trade partners, the Chicago Bulls, occupy the other end of the spectrum. The rebuilding Bulls shed Butler, Dwyane Wade, and Rajon Rondo during the 2017 offseason. Vegas has them winning 22.5 games after going 41-41 a season ago. That 18.5-game decline between Chicago's actual win total last season and their Vegas over-under this season ties for the 6th-worst projected season-to-season decline since 2002 – not far behind the post-LeBron Cavs (2010-11), the injured-Paul-George Pacers (2014-15), the post-Dwight Howard Magic (2012-13), the post-LaMarcus Aldridge Blazers (2015-16), and the post-Karl Malone Jazz (2003-04).
The Wolves' draft-night trade partners, the Chicago Bulls, occupy the other end of the spectrum. The rebuilding Bulls shed Butler, Dwyane Wade, and Rajon Rondo during the 2017 offseason. Vegas has them winning 22.5 games after going 41-41 a season ago. That 18.5-game decline between Chicago's actual win total last season and their Vegas over-under this season ties for the 6th-worst projected season-to-season decline since 2002 – not far behind the post-LeBron Cavs (2010-11), the injured-Paul-George Pacers (2014-15), the post-Dwight Howard Magic (2012-13), the post-LaMarcus Aldridge Blazers (2015-16), and the post-Karl Malone Jazz (2003-04).
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According to Vegas, the average NBA team can expect a change of 5.7 wins relative to last season. Measured relative to other *projected* summer shifts, 2017 is the 5th-most most impactful NBA offseason since 2005. Over that period, the biggest shake-up – both perceived (average change of 7.5 wins per team) and actual (average change of 10.6 wins per team) – came by way of the 2013 offseason, when the Rockets signed Dwight Howard, the Nets traded four future first-round draft picks to the Celtics for Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Jason Terry, and the Knicks traded three players and three draft picks – including a 2016 lottery pick – to the Raptors for Andrea Bargnani.
(I'm f*cking joking about the Knicks trade by the way. On the heels of that trade, Vegas projected that New York would lose four more games in 2013-14 than they did the previous season. Reading then-GM Glen Grunwald's rationale for the trade is nauseating. Since trading Patrick Ewing during the 2000 offseason, the Knicks have amassed the NBA's 3rd-worst record. But read on, for Vegas had a tough time giving up hope...)
Part II: Vegas's Favorite and Least Favorite Franchises
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The main sources for this article are Basketball-Reference.com and SportsOddsHistory.com. Data was compiled and analyzed by ELDORADO. All charts and graphics herein were created by ELDORADO.
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co