Searching for Value in NFL Picks and Futures
Weeks 1-4 - Weeks 5-8 - Weeks 9-12 - Weeks 13-17 - Summary
Weeks 1-4 - Weeks 5-8 - Weeks 9-12 - Weeks 13-17 - Summary
IMPORTANT NOTE
Almost every one of Searching for Value's NFL picks is an underdog. When betting underdogs on the moneyline (to win straight up), bettors are paid a multiple of the amount they've risked to compensate them for backing a team that the market believes has a lower or much lower likelihood of winning.
This NFL season, the system's average Tier 1 and Tier 2 Moneyline plays have had +306 odds, meaning winning bets would net 306 in profit for every 100 risked. The system's average Weekly Top 5 Moneyline plays have had +187 odds, meaning winning bets would net 187 in profit for every 100 risked.
As explained in the column, the system actually expects to lose more moneyline *bets* than it wins. (With average odds of +300, a bettor needs to win 25% of the time to break even.) But when it is earning over 300 per win and "only" losing 100 per loss, the record(s) below can produce highly positive returns.
Almost every one of Searching for Value's NFL picks is an underdog. When betting underdogs on the moneyline (to win straight up), bettors are paid a multiple of the amount they've risked to compensate them for backing a team that the market believes has a lower or much lower likelihood of winning.
This NFL season, the system's average Tier 1 and Tier 2 Moneyline plays have had +306 odds, meaning winning bets would net 306 in profit for every 100 risked. The system's average Weekly Top 5 Moneyline plays have had +187 odds, meaning winning bets would net 187 in profit for every 100 risked.
As explained in the column, the system actually expects to lose more moneyline *bets* than it wins. (With average odds of +300, a bettor needs to win 25% of the time to break even.) But when it is earning over 300 per win and "only" losing 100 per loss, the record(s) below can produce highly positive returns.
FOR ONGOING REFERENCE (CLICK HEADERS TO READ MORE)
"SEARCHING FOR VALUE" EVALUATES WHICH NFL MONEY-LINE PLAYS HAVE THE HIGHEST PROJECTED EXPECTED VALUE
This column attempts to quantify the expected value of each week's money-line plays (i.e., betting teams to win "straight up," not against the spread) throughout the NFL season. Generally speaking, a bettor (or model) would see positive expected value in a given bet if that bettor (or model) thought a certain outcome was more likely to occur than the sportsbooks' odds (or payout) implied.
For example, in Week 1, the sportsbooks had the Seattle Seahawks as +240 underdogs at home versus the Denver Broncos (i.e., risk $100 to profit $240 if Seattle wins; lose $100 if Seattle loses). By setting Seattle's money line at +240, the pre-game odds implied that the Seahawks had a 29.4% chance to win the game ("implied probability"). Positive expected value would exist if you (or some model) believed that Seattle had a higher probability to win than the 29.4% chance implied by those +240 odds. (Seattle won the game.)
(I will also take a periodic look at NFL futures. Some readers have also written in asking how these have done against the spread.)
For example, in Week 1, the sportsbooks had the Seattle Seahawks as +240 underdogs at home versus the Denver Broncos (i.e., risk $100 to profit $240 if Seattle wins; lose $100 if Seattle loses). By setting Seattle's money line at +240, the pre-game odds implied that the Seahawks had a 29.4% chance to win the game ("implied probability"). Positive expected value would exist if you (or some model) believed that Seattle had a higher probability to win than the 29.4% chance implied by those +240 odds. (Seattle won the game.)
(I will also take a periodic look at NFL futures. Some readers have also written in asking how these have done against the spread.)
THE PERCENTILES REFERENCED BELOW ARE NEITHER PROBABILITIES TO WIN NOR CONFIDENCE LEVELS
The numbers associated with each play are percentiles. They indicate where the expected value of a hypothetical money-line pick ranks when compared to all potential money-line picks over the last several seasons (i.e., among several thousand possibilities).
Teams in Tier 1 ("Selections") are in the 99th percentile or above when compared to all those possibilities. Over the historical period I've studied, these have occurred approximately once every three weeks (i.e., 1 out of every 50 games, aka 1 in 100 team-games).
Teams in Tier 2 ("Considerations") fall between the 94th and 99th percentile when compared to all those possibilities. On average, considerations should occur a little less than twice per week. They have roughly broken even over time (hence the name).
I also include a weekly Top 5. Betting all of those would have a negative return over time, though they have done well in 2022.
Teams in Tier 1 ("Selections") are in the 99th percentile or above when compared to all those possibilities. Over the historical period I've studied, these have occurred approximately once every three weeks (i.e., 1 out of every 50 games, aka 1 in 100 team-games).
Teams in Tier 2 ("Considerations") fall between the 94th and 99th percentile when compared to all those possibilities. On average, considerations should occur a little less than twice per week. They have roughly broken even over time (hence the name).
I also include a weekly Top 5. Betting all of those would have a negative return over time, though they have done well in 2022.
THE MODEL EXPECTS TO LOSE MORE GAMES THAN IT WINS, BUT IT'S ALMOST ALWAYS PLAYING BIG UNDERDOGS
Underdogs are underdogs for a reason; the market thinks they're more likely to lose (sometimes a lot more likely) than they are to win. Consequently, money-line underdogs pay more (sometimes a lot more) for victories (e.g., +240) than the amount at risk (e.g., 100).
If a bettor's average money-line play is +300, they "only" need to win 25%+ of the time to break even, assuming equally sized plays. The average Tier 1 Selection in the period I've studied has carried +488 odds. The average Tier 2 Consideration has carried +343 odds.
If a bettor's average money-line play is +300, they "only" need to win 25%+ of the time to break even, assuming equally sized plays. The average Tier 1 Selection in the period I've studied has carried +488 odds. The average Tier 2 Consideration has carried +343 odds.
IF A TEAM IS LISTED BELOW, IT DOES NOT MEAN THE SYSTEM THINKS THEY ARE LIKELY TO WIN THEIR GAME
Positive expected value instead suggests that the model thinks the team is more likely to win than the current money-line odds imply. And while this column focuses on numbers, whether you actually think that's the case is ultimately up to you and your gut!
all plays that have qualified for tier 1 or tier 2 in 2022, WITH RESULTS
1. SEA (+240) vs. DEN - Week 1 - 99.7 percentile - Won 17-16
2. DAL (+275) vs. CIN - Week 2 - 99.6 - Won 20-17
3. TEN (+600) at KC - Week 9 - 99.3 - Lost 20-17
TEN was closer to +460 for most of the week (Tier 2, 96.9) then jumped to +600 (Tier 1, 99.3) shortly before kickoff (Tannehill ruled out)
4. HOU (+390) at DEN - Week 2 - 98.2 - Lost 19-6
5. HOU (+575) vs. PHI - Week 9 - 97.6 - Lost 29-17
6. PIT (+380) vs. TB - Week 6 - 97.6 - Won 20-18
7. ARZ (+360) vs. SFO - Week 11 - 97.5 - Lost 38-10
ARZ was closer to +290 for most of the week (did not qualify, 93,2) then jumped to +360 (Tier 2, 97.5) shortly before kickoff (Murray ruled out)
8. CAR (+530) vs. TB - Week 7 - 97.2 - Won 21-3
9. WAS (+240) vs. PHI - Week 3 - 96.4 - Lost 24-8
10. SEA (+310) at SFO - Week 2 - 96.3 - Lost 27-7
11. ARZ (+215) vs. PHI - Week 5 - 96.0 - Lost 20-17
12. HOU (+283) vs. IND - Week 1 - 95.9 - Tied 20-20
13. IND (+240) vs. PHI - Week 11 - 95.9 - Lost 17-16
14. HOU (+205) vs. LAC - Week 4 - 95.5 - Lost 34-24
15. CHI (+265) vs. SFO - Week 1 - 95.4 - Won 19-10
16. DAL (+245) at PHI - Week 6 - 95.1 - Lost 26-17
17. TEN (+115) vs. LVR - Week 3 - 94.7 - Won 24-22
18. ATL (+140) vs. LAC - Week 9 - 94.5 - Lost 20-17
19. NYJ (+275) vs. BAL - Week 1 - 94.5 - Lost 24-9
20. PIT (+295) at MIA - Week 7 - 94.5 - Lost 16-10
21. NYJ (+460) vs. BUF - Week 9 - 94.3 - Won 20-17
2. DAL (+275) vs. CIN - Week 2 - 99.6 - Won 20-17
3. TEN (+600) at KC - Week 9 - 99.3 - Lost 20-17
TEN was closer to +460 for most of the week (Tier 2, 96.9) then jumped to +600 (Tier 1, 99.3) shortly before kickoff (Tannehill ruled out)
4. HOU (+390) at DEN - Week 2 - 98.2 - Lost 19-6
5. HOU (+575) vs. PHI - Week 9 - 97.6 - Lost 29-17
6. PIT (+380) vs. TB - Week 6 - 97.6 - Won 20-18
7. ARZ (+360) vs. SFO - Week 11 - 97.5 - Lost 38-10
ARZ was closer to +290 for most of the week (did not qualify, 93,2) then jumped to +360 (Tier 2, 97.5) shortly before kickoff (Murray ruled out)
8. CAR (+530) vs. TB - Week 7 - 97.2 - Won 21-3
9. WAS (+240) vs. PHI - Week 3 - 96.4 - Lost 24-8
10. SEA (+310) at SFO - Week 2 - 96.3 - Lost 27-7
11. ARZ (+215) vs. PHI - Week 5 - 96.0 - Lost 20-17
12. HOU (+283) vs. IND - Week 1 - 95.9 - Tied 20-20
13. IND (+240) vs. PHI - Week 11 - 95.9 - Lost 17-16
14. HOU (+205) vs. LAC - Week 4 - 95.5 - Lost 34-24
15. CHI (+265) vs. SFO - Week 1 - 95.4 - Won 19-10
16. DAL (+245) at PHI - Week 6 - 95.1 - Lost 26-17
17. TEN (+115) vs. LVR - Week 3 - 94.7 - Won 24-22
18. ATL (+140) vs. LAC - Week 9 - 94.5 - Lost 20-17
19. NYJ (+275) vs. BAL - Week 1 - 94.5 - Lost 24-9
20. PIT (+295) at MIA - Week 7 - 94.5 - Lost 16-10
21. NYJ (+460) vs. BUF - Week 9 - 94.3 - Won 20-17
SEARCHING FOR VALUE IN WEEK 9
Last Week
- Selections (99th-100th percentile): None
- Considerations (94th-99th percentile): None
All money line; every selection and consideration has been a modest to heavy underdog
Season to Date
- Selections (99th-100th percentile): 2-0-0 (+515)
- Considerations (94th-99th percentile): 4-7-1 (+590)
All money line; every selection and consideration has been a modest to heavy underdog
- Selections (99th-100th percentile): None
- Considerations (94th-99th percentile): None
All money line; every selection and consideration has been a modest to heavy underdog
Season to Date
- Selections (99th-100th percentile): 2-0-0 (+515)
- Considerations (94th-99th percentile): 4-7-1 (+590)
All money line; every selection and consideration has been a modest to heavy underdog
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No teams met the criteria last week. But as communicated via email and posted on ELDORADO's front page on Thursday, one did Thursday night. At +575, Houston was a Tier 2 Consideration (97.6) hosting the undefeated Eagles. As I mentioned in those emails and posts, this was one of the ones that feels icky if you do it. After all, did the lowly Texans really have a chance against the mighty Eagles? (They lost 29-17 and actually put up a very good fight. I got a lot of "too-soon" text messages when Houston scored first and when it was tied at halftime.)
The money line implied that Houston had a 15% chance at the upset. The model here implied closer to a 25% chance. If you disagreed, presumably you stayed away. If you thought Houston had more like a 5% chance to win, maybe you saw value in the Eagles instead. I bit my lip and did it anyway -- to stay true to the system, which expects to lost more than it wins (all money line, all modest to heavy underdogs). It needs random, big-odds upsets, and never know when they might show up. It thought there was a 1 in 4 chance at one Thursday night.
Similar phenomena exist with the Titans (+460 at KC) and Jets (+460 vs. BUF) this week, both of which carry Tier 2 Consideration status at +460. The Titans lead their division at 5-2 (the same record as KC, against whom they're heavy underdogs), and the Jets are a respectable 5-3 playing at home. Still, I imagine they feel hard to back. At +460, the odds imply an 18% for each of the Titans and Jets to pull off the upset. Do you think they have a better chance than that? The Jets need +455 or better to remain in Tier 2; Atlanta also qualifies for Tier 2 at +137.
So check out the list below, keep an eye on those odds, and enjoy Week 9!
The money line implied that Houston had a 15% chance at the upset. The model here implied closer to a 25% chance. If you disagreed, presumably you stayed away. If you thought Houston had more like a 5% chance to win, maybe you saw value in the Eagles instead. I bit my lip and did it anyway -- to stay true to the system, which expects to lost more than it wins (all money line, all modest to heavy underdogs). It needs random, big-odds upsets, and never know when they might show up. It thought there was a 1 in 4 chance at one Thursday night.
Similar phenomena exist with the Titans (+460 at KC) and Jets (+460 vs. BUF) this week, both of which carry Tier 2 Consideration status at +460. The Titans lead their division at 5-2 (the same record as KC, against whom they're heavy underdogs), and the Jets are a respectable 5-3 playing at home. Still, I imagine they feel hard to back. At +460, the odds imply an 18% for each of the Titans and Jets to pull off the upset. Do you think they have a better chance than that? The Jets need +455 or better to remain in Tier 2; Atlanta also qualifies for Tier 2 at +137.
So check out the list below, keep an eye on those odds, and enjoy Week 9!
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This Week's Top 5: Money-line Expected Value
1. HOU (+575) vs. PHI: 97.6 percentile
- The money line implies a 15% chance for Houston to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 1 status is +672
2. TEN (+460) at KC: 96.9 percentile
- The money line implies a 18% chance for Tennessee to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 1 status is +561
- Minimum to maintain Tier 2 status is +398
3. NYJ (+460) vs. BUF: 94.2 percentile
- The money line implies a 18% chance for New York to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to maintain Tier 2 status is +455
4. ATL (+135) vs. LAC: 93.8 percentile
- The money line implies a 43% chance for Atlanta to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +137
5. CHI (+175) vs. MIA: 90.3 percentile
- The money line implies a 36% chance for Chicago to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +201
1. HOU (+575) vs. PHI: 97.6 percentile
- The money line implies a 15% chance for Houston to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 1 status is +672
2. TEN (+460) at KC: 96.9 percentile
- The money line implies a 18% chance for Tennessee to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 1 status is +561
- Minimum to maintain Tier 2 status is +398
3. NYJ (+460) vs. BUF: 94.2 percentile
- The money line implies a 18% chance for New York to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to maintain Tier 2 status is +455
4. ATL (+135) vs. LAC: 93.8 percentile
- The money line implies a 43% chance for Atlanta to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +137
5. CHI (+175) vs. MIA: 90.3 percentile
- The money line implies a 36% chance for Chicago to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +201
SEARCHING FOR VALUE IN WEEK 10
Last Week
Tier 1 Selections (99-100th percentile): TEN (+600) vs. KC (Lost 100)
Tier 2 Considerations (94-99th percentile): NYJ (+460) vs. BUF (Won 460), ATL (+140) vs. LAC (Lost 100), HOU (+575) vs. PHI (Lost 100)
Season to Date
Tier 1 Selections (99th-100th percentile): 2-1-0 (+415)
Tier 2 Considerations (94th-99th percentile): 5-10-1 (+750)
All money line; every selection and consideration has been a modest to heavy underdog
Tier 1 Selections (99-100th percentile): TEN (+600) vs. KC (Lost 100)
Tier 2 Considerations (94-99th percentile): NYJ (+460) vs. BUF (Won 460), ATL (+140) vs. LAC (Lost 100), HOU (+575) vs. PHI (Lost 100)
Season to Date
Tier 1 Selections (99th-100th percentile): 2-1-0 (+415)
Tier 2 Considerations (94th-99th percentile): 5-10-1 (+750)
All money line; every selection and consideration has been a modest to heavy underdog
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Last week was a case study in timing and line movement. The Jets' huge upset of the Bills qualified for Tier 2 as long as you found it at +455 or above, which is where it was (+460) when I posted this article toward the end of last week. The Falcons almost beat the Chargers in what would have been a minor upset; the consensus line there was Falcons +135, and it needed +137 to qualify for Tier 2. I found it at +140 on DraftKings and took it there, though naturally with the loss, I kind of wish I didn't. That's way the numbers fall.
Meanwhile, on Sunday night, Tennessee nearly pulled off a huge upset in Kansas City, which would have punctuated another monster weekend for "Searching for Value" for folks who had also gotten in on the Jets at the appropriate / qualifying level. The Titans' moneyline hovered around +460 for most of the week (Tier 2, 96.9 percentile), and then surged to +600 (Tier 1, 99.3 percentile) when quarterback Ryan Tannehill was officially ruled out in the hour before game time. This line movement technically nudged it into Tier 1.
The recordkeeping here can get a little gray as a result. Were you able to find the Jets or Falcons at Tier 2 levels? Should the Titans be considered Tier 1, even though you would have only seen it right before game time if you were staring at your phone? I am going to err on the side of inclusivity and conservatism here, even if it hurts the year-to-date records above (e.g., by including the Titans in Tier 1). I am also adding the Jets Week 1 loss back into the yearlong stats, even though most people couldn't find a qualifying Tier 2 line.
If Week 9 was a bonanza, then Week 10 might feel kind of lame. At present, nothing qualifies for Tier 1 or Tier 2, and only Tennessee — a rare favorite for this column — comes close. The Titans' odds would need to move from their current -136 level to -124 or better in order to break past the 94th expected-value percentile and qualify for Tier 2. As of midweek, quarterback Ryan Tannehill's status remained uncertain for Week 10 due to a nagging ankle injury. So watch those injury updates, watch those lines, and enjoy Week 10!
Meanwhile, on Sunday night, Tennessee nearly pulled off a huge upset in Kansas City, which would have punctuated another monster weekend for "Searching for Value" for folks who had also gotten in on the Jets at the appropriate / qualifying level. The Titans' moneyline hovered around +460 for most of the week (Tier 2, 96.9 percentile), and then surged to +600 (Tier 1, 99.3 percentile) when quarterback Ryan Tannehill was officially ruled out in the hour before game time. This line movement technically nudged it into Tier 1.
The recordkeeping here can get a little gray as a result. Were you able to find the Jets or Falcons at Tier 2 levels? Should the Titans be considered Tier 1, even though you would have only seen it right before game time if you were staring at your phone? I am going to err on the side of inclusivity and conservatism here, even if it hurts the year-to-date records above (e.g., by including the Titans in Tier 1). I am also adding the Jets Week 1 loss back into the yearlong stats, even though most people couldn't find a qualifying Tier 2 line.
If Week 9 was a bonanza, then Week 10 might feel kind of lame. At present, nothing qualifies for Tier 1 or Tier 2, and only Tennessee — a rare favorite for this column — comes close. The Titans' odds would need to move from their current -136 level to -124 or better in order to break past the 94th expected-value percentile and qualify for Tier 2. As of midweek, quarterback Ryan Tannehill's status remained uncertain for Week 10 due to a nagging ankle injury. So watch those injury updates, watch those lines, and enjoy Week 10!
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This Week's Top 5: Money-line Expected Value
1. TEN (-136) vs. DEN: 92.8 percentile
- The money line implies a 58% chance for Tennessee to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is -124
2. SEA (+134) at TB: 87.3 percentile
- The money line implies a 43% chance for Seattle to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +168
3. IND (+180) at LVR: 87.2 percentile
- The money line implies a 36% chance for Indianapolis to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +221
4. PIT (+125) vs. NOS: 85.4 percentile
- The money line implies a 44% chance for Pittsburgh to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +163
5. GBP (+195) vs. DAL: 83.6 percentile
- The money line implies a 34% chance for Green Bay to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +252
1. TEN (-136) vs. DEN: 92.8 percentile
- The money line implies a 58% chance for Tennessee to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is -124
2. SEA (+134) at TB: 87.3 percentile
- The money line implies a 43% chance for Seattle to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +168
3. IND (+180) at LVR: 87.2 percentile
- The money line implies a 36% chance for Indianapolis to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +221
4. PIT (+125) vs. NOS: 85.4 percentile
- The money line implies a 44% chance for Pittsburgh to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +163
5. GBP (+195) vs. DAL: 83.6 percentile
- The money line implies a 34% chance for Green Bay to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +252
SEARCHING FOR VALUE IN WEEK 11
Last Week
Tier 1 Moneyline Selections (99-100th percentile): None
Tier 2 Moneyline Considerations (94-99th percentile): None
Weekly Top 5 Moneyline Expected Value: 4-1-0 (+474 on 500 risked)
Weekly Top 5 Applied Against the Spread: 4-1-0 (+290 on 550 risked)
Season to Date thru Week 10
Tier 1 Moneyline Selections (99th-100th percentile): 2-1-0 (+415 on 300 risked)
Tier 2 Moneyline Considerations (94th-99th percentile): 5-10-1 (+750 on 1500 risked)
Weekly Top 5 Moneyline Expected Value: 21-28-1 (+1714 on 4900 risked)
Weekly Top 5 Applied Against the Spread: 31-19-0 (+1010 on 5500 risked)
Every Tier 1 and 2 play has been a modest to heavy underdog. Almost every Weekly Top 5 play has been an underdog. Assumes 100 per moneyline play and 110 to win 100 per against the spread plays.
Tier 1 Moneyline Selections (99-100th percentile): None
Tier 2 Moneyline Considerations (94-99th percentile): None
Weekly Top 5 Moneyline Expected Value: 4-1-0 (+474 on 500 risked)
Weekly Top 5 Applied Against the Spread: 4-1-0 (+290 on 550 risked)
Season to Date thru Week 10
Tier 1 Moneyline Selections (99th-100th percentile): 2-1-0 (+415 on 300 risked)
Tier 2 Moneyline Considerations (94th-99th percentile): 5-10-1 (+750 on 1500 risked)
Weekly Top 5 Moneyline Expected Value: 21-28-1 (+1714 on 4900 risked)
Weekly Top 5 Applied Against the Spread: 31-19-0 (+1010 on 5500 risked)
Every Tier 1 and 2 play has been a modest to heavy underdog. Almost every Weekly Top 5 play has been an underdog. Assumes 100 per moneyline play and 110 to win 100 per against the spread plays.
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No teams qualified for Tier 1 or Tier 2 last week, though Tennessee came close (and won). As lucky as "Searching for Value" has been this season, some recent line movements around the Tier 1 and Tier 2 thresholds have actually hurt its record, with Tennessee's late slide into Tier 1 in Week 9 (a close loss at Kansas City), Atlanta barely achieving Tier 2 status in Week 9 (a close loss vs. the Chargers), and Tennessee just missing Tier 2 in Week 10 (a win vs. Denver). The rare favorite in this column, the Titans needed -124 to qualify; the best I saw was -130.
Separately, I finally had a moment to calculate how the weekly top five has performed both on the moneyline and, at the behest of certain readers, against the spread. The against-the-spread category is not a separate list in this case; it's a record of how this system's "weekly top five moneyline expected value plays" would have performed is you took those very same teams with the points / against the spread.
Both have performed well in 2022. The weekly top five moneyline expected value plays are 21-28-1. As weekly readers know well, these are almost all high-odds underdogs, so that "losing record" has a very positive return: +1714 on 4900 risked (+35.0%) if you assume 100 per play. Meanwhile, if someone took those same five teams against the spread every week, they'd be 31-19-0 on the year. If we assume 110 to win 100 per play, that's +1010 on 5500 risked (+18.4%). (As I've warned before, these top fives have had a negative return over the longer term.)
As always, this week's top five is listed below. At +245, the Jeff Saturday-led Colts are a Tier 2 Consideration (95.9 percentile) versus the seemingly mighty Eagles, while the Cardinals (+290) need to get to +301 or better to qualify as a Tier 2 Consideration versus the seemingly mighty 49ers. Remember (as outlined in the dropdown reminders above) that this does not mean the system thinks the Colts or Cardinals are likely to win their games — only that they are potentially more likely to do so than the current odds imply (see below). Enjoy Week 11!
Separately, I finally had a moment to calculate how the weekly top five has performed both on the moneyline and, at the behest of certain readers, against the spread. The against-the-spread category is not a separate list in this case; it's a record of how this system's "weekly top five moneyline expected value plays" would have performed is you took those very same teams with the points / against the spread.
Both have performed well in 2022. The weekly top five moneyline expected value plays are 21-28-1. As weekly readers know well, these are almost all high-odds underdogs, so that "losing record" has a very positive return: +1714 on 4900 risked (+35.0%) if you assume 100 per play. Meanwhile, if someone took those same five teams against the spread every week, they'd be 31-19-0 on the year. If we assume 110 to win 100 per play, that's +1010 on 5500 risked (+18.4%). (As I've warned before, these top fives have had a negative return over the longer term.)
As always, this week's top five is listed below. At +245, the Jeff Saturday-led Colts are a Tier 2 Consideration (95.9 percentile) versus the seemingly mighty Eagles, while the Cardinals (+290) need to get to +301 or better to qualify as a Tier 2 Consideration versus the seemingly mighty 49ers. Remember (as outlined in the dropdown reminders above) that this does not mean the system thinks the Colts or Cardinals are likely to win their games — only that they are potentially more likely to do so than the current odds imply (see below). Enjoy Week 11!
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This Week's Top 5: Money-line Expected Value
1. IND (+245) vs. PHI: 95.9 percentile
- The money line implies a 29% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to maintain Tier 2 status is +221
2. ARZ (+290) vs. SFO: 93.2 percentile
- The money line implies a 26% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +301
3. TEN (+150) at GBP: 92.4 percentile
- The money line implies a 40% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +163
4. MIN (+108) vs. DAL: 89.9 percentile
- The money line implies a 48% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +129
5. CAR (+500) at BAL: 87.2 percentile
- The money line implies a 17% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +587
1. IND (+245) vs. PHI: 95.9 percentile
- The money line implies a 29% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to maintain Tier 2 status is +221
2. ARZ (+290) vs. SFO: 93.2 percentile
- The money line implies a 26% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +301
3. TEN (+150) at GBP: 92.4 percentile
- The money line implies a 40% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +163
4. MIN (+108) vs. DAL: 89.9 percentile
- The money line implies a 48% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +129
5. CAR (+500) at BAL: 87.2 percentile
- The money line implies a 17% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +587
SEARCHING FOR VALUE IN WEEK 12
Tier 1 Moneyline Selections (99th-100th percentile)
- Season: 2-1-0 (+415 on 300 risked, +138.3%)
- Last Week: 0-0-0
Tier 2 Moneyline Considerations (94th-99th percentile)
- Season: 5-12-1 (+550 on 1700 risked, +32.4%)
- Last Week: 0-2-0 (-200)
Weekly Top 5 Moneyline Expected Value
- Season: 22-32-1 (+1464 on 5400 risked, +27.1%)
- Last Week: 1-4-0 (-250)
Weekly Top 5 Applied Against the Spread
- Season: 34-22-0 (+1090 on 6050 risked, +18.0%)
- Last Week: 3-2-0 (+80)
Every Tier 1 and 2 play has been a modest to heavy underdog. Almost every Weekly Top 5 play has been an underdog. Assumes 100 per moneyline play and 110 to win 100 per against the spread plays.
- Season: 2-1-0 (+415 on 300 risked, +138.3%)
- Last Week: 0-0-0
Tier 2 Moneyline Considerations (94th-99th percentile)
- Season: 5-12-1 (+550 on 1700 risked, +32.4%)
- Last Week: 0-2-0 (-200)
Weekly Top 5 Moneyline Expected Value
- Season: 22-32-1 (+1464 on 5400 risked, +27.1%)
- Last Week: 1-4-0 (-250)
Weekly Top 5 Applied Against the Spread
- Season: 34-22-0 (+1090 on 6050 risked, +18.0%)
- Last Week: 3-2-0 (+80)
Every Tier 1 and 2 play has been a modest to heavy underdog. Almost every Weekly Top 5 play has been an underdog. Assumes 100 per moneyline play and 110 to win 100 per against the spread plays.
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Though still stellar on the season, the system experienced some bad luck in Week 11, as the Colts (a Tier 2 moneyline play, 95.9) let a +245 upset of the Eagles slip through their fingers in the game's final minute. Late line movement also worked against the system again (see last week's write-up above), as the Cardinals ended up moving into Tier 2 territory and losing. Arizona went from +290 to +360 when Kyler Murray was ruled out an hour before kickoff for backup Colt McCoy; the inflated odds pushed them from the 93rd to the 97th percentile.
Injuries like that are tough to navigate. The system does not factor them in, leaving the choice up to you. (Nor does it factor in trades.) Underdog odds naturally increase when backups replace starters (or stars like Christian McCaffrey are traded), which can push teams into Tier 1 or Tier 2 qualification status. This season, sticking with the system despite these injuries and trades has paid off. Cooper Rush led the Cowboys to a +275 upset of the Bengals in Week 2. Carolina beat Tampa Bay as massive +530 underdogs days after the McCaffrey trade. Malik Willis almost led the Titans to a +600 upset of the Chiefs in Week 9. (These are three of the system's top eight plays of the year.)
Meanwhile, applying the weekly top five moneyline expected value plays as "against the spread" picks continued its hot streak by going 3-2; Tennessee, Carolina, and Indianapolis all covered with the points. Tennessee also won outright (+150). Minnesota and Arizona got beaten badly. The weekly top five is now 34-21 against the spread on the season (+1090 on 6050 risked, +18.0%), and hasn't had a losing week since Week 6. Still, the weekly top five has been more profitable on the moneyline, going 22-32-1 (almost all dogs, +1464 on 5400 risked, +27.1%).
As always, this week's top five moneyline expected value plays are detailed below. None currently qualifies for Tier 1 or Tier 2, though Arizona comes close, so watch that line. The others are unlikely to qualify even with line movement. And the fifth team on the list, Seattle (-190) hosting Las Vegas, may well be the lowest-percentile play to crack the top five all season. Happy Thanksgiving, and enjoy Week 12!
Injuries like that are tough to navigate. The system does not factor them in, leaving the choice up to you. (Nor does it factor in trades.) Underdog odds naturally increase when backups replace starters (or stars like Christian McCaffrey are traded), which can push teams into Tier 1 or Tier 2 qualification status. This season, sticking with the system despite these injuries and trades has paid off. Cooper Rush led the Cowboys to a +275 upset of the Bengals in Week 2. Carolina beat Tampa Bay as massive +530 underdogs days after the McCaffrey trade. Malik Willis almost led the Titans to a +600 upset of the Chiefs in Week 9. (These are three of the system's top eight plays of the year.)
Meanwhile, applying the weekly top five moneyline expected value plays as "against the spread" picks continued its hot streak by going 3-2; Tennessee, Carolina, and Indianapolis all covered with the points. Tennessee also won outright (+150). Minnesota and Arizona got beaten badly. The weekly top five is now 34-21 against the spread on the season (+1090 on 6050 risked, +18.0%), and hasn't had a losing week since Week 6. Still, the weekly top five has been more profitable on the moneyline, going 22-32-1 (almost all dogs, +1464 on 5400 risked, +27.1%).
As always, this week's top five moneyline expected value plays are detailed below. None currently qualifies for Tier 1 or Tier 2, though Arizona comes close, so watch that line. The others are unlikely to qualify even with line movement. And the fifth team on the list, Seattle (-190) hosting Las Vegas, may well be the lowest-percentile play to crack the top five all season. Happy Thanksgiving, and enjoy Week 12!
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This Week's Top 5: Money-line Expected Value
1. ARZ (+145) vs. LAC: 93.7 percentile
- The money line implies a 41% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +149
2. CAR (+115) vs. DEN: 90.9 percentile
- The money line implies a 47% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +133
3. TEN (+105) vs. CIN: 89.0 percentile
- The money line implies a 49% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +129
4. DET (+370) vs. BUF: 87.7 percentile
- The money line implies a 21% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +434
5. SEA (-190) vs. LVR: 75.7 percentile
- The money line implies a 66% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is -105
1. ARZ (+145) vs. LAC: 93.7 percentile
- The money line implies a 41% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +149
2. CAR (+115) vs. DEN: 90.9 percentile
- The money line implies a 47% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +133
3. TEN (+105) vs. CIN: 89.0 percentile
- The money line implies a 49% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +129
4. DET (+370) vs. BUF: 87.7 percentile
- The money line implies a 21% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +434
5. SEA (-190) vs. LVR: 75.7 percentile
- The money line implies a 66% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is -105
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