NEW: The Dome Effect Is A Myth
A shorter, sweeter, up-do-date review
VIDEO: The Dome Effect Is A Myth
Released March 29 on YouTube!
A shorter, sweeter, up-do-date review
VIDEO: The Dome Effect Is A Myth
Released March 29 on YouTube!
Is College Basketball's 'Dome Effect' Real?
Do NCAA Tournament Teams Shoot Poorly in Big Domed Football Stadiums?
MAR 16 2016
Part I - Part II - Part III - Part IV - Part V
Do NCAA Tournament Teams Shoot Poorly in Big Domed Football Stadiums?
MAR 16 2016
Part I - Part II - Part III - Part IV - Part V
I wrote a condensed version of this for FiveThirtyEight: The Dome Effect Isn't Real; The NRG Effect Is Complicated
III. How does performance by venue type compare to teams' season averages?
Now that we know how teams perform in different NCAA tournament venue types, let’s look at how that performance compares to their season averages. This helps account for the fact that venues host different teams, and for the fact that certain venues host later-round games, which theoretically feature better teams. Doing so takes us one step further toward isolating the effects of each venue on different shot types.
Free throws aside, teams don’t shoot as well or score as much in the regionals and Final Four as they do over the course of the entire season – which makes sense, given they’re playing against top competition. We’re interested here in how much worse they shoot and how that varies by venue and shot type.
Now that we know how teams perform in different NCAA tournament venue types, let’s look at how that performance compares to their season averages. This helps account for the fact that venues host different teams, and for the fact that certain venues host later-round games, which theoretically feature better teams. Doing so takes us one step further toward isolating the effects of each venue on different shot types.
Free throws aside, teams don’t shoot as well or score as much in the regionals and Final Four as they do over the course of the entire season – which makes sense, given they’re playing against top competition. We’re interested here in how much worse they shoot and how that varies by venue and shot type.
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In line with the previous section, points, 2P%, and FT% suffer most in open domes with the court at midfield. And again, despite the reputation of these new, bowl-style domes as some sort of backdrop-less hell for three-point shooters, 3P% actually suffers most in traditional domes (court in corner).
Relative to their season averages, teams’ true shooting percentage in the last four rounds of the NCAA tournament declines by an average of 3.7 percentage points in arenas, 4.0 percentage points in dome-corners, and 4.8 percentage points in dome-centers. As we saw, that means that if teams put up the same number of field goals and free throws across venues, the teams playing in the bowl-style domes would score about 1.25 fewer points than those in arenas and traditional dome setups.
Overall, big football domes with the court at midfield aren't great places to shoot, but they've been friendlier to three-point shooters than have traditional domes. And in aggregate, they are only slightly worse shooting environments than standard arenas or domes with the court in an end zone.
Next: Team offense and opponent defense matter - venue type does not
In line with the previous section, points, 2P%, and FT% suffer most in open domes with the court at midfield. And again, despite the reputation of these new, bowl-style domes as some sort of backdrop-less hell for three-point shooters, 3P% actually suffers most in traditional domes (court in corner).
Relative to their season averages, teams’ true shooting percentage in the last four rounds of the NCAA tournament declines by an average of 3.7 percentage points in arenas, 4.0 percentage points in dome-corners, and 4.8 percentage points in dome-centers. As we saw, that means that if teams put up the same number of field goals and free throws across venues, the teams playing in the bowl-style domes would score about 1.25 fewer points than those in arenas and traditional dome setups.
Overall, big football domes with the court at midfield aren't great places to shoot, but they've been friendlier to three-point shooters than have traditional domes. And in aggregate, they are only slightly worse shooting environments than standard arenas or domes with the court in an end zone.
Next: Team offense and opponent defense matter - venue type does not
I. Introduction
II. How do teams perform in different NCAA tournament venue types?
III. How does that performance compare to their season averages?
IV. Team offense and opponent defense matter - venue type does not
V. What about specific venues and this year's Final Four at NRG Stadium?
II. How do teams perform in different NCAA tournament venue types?
III. How does that performance compare to their season averages?
IV. Team offense and opponent defense matter - venue type does not
V. What about specific venues and this year's Final Four at NRG Stadium?
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Methodology
This analysis uses True Shooting % and average performance, weighting each game equally regardless of how many shots were taken. For FiveThirtyEight and my 2017 update, I used Effective FG% and aggregate performance, calculating shooting percentages based on all shots taken and made (shots equally weighted). The takeaways are the same with either methodology. See Part V for a postscript on further reading, overtime, defensive metrics, and how I calculated changes in performance relative to teams' season averages.
This analysis uses True Shooting % and average performance, weighting each game equally regardless of how many shots were taken. For FiveThirtyEight and my 2017 update, I used Effective FG% and aggregate performance, calculating shooting percentages based on all shots taken and made (shots equally weighted). The takeaways are the same with either methodology. See Part V for a postscript on further reading, overtime, defensive metrics, and how I calculated changes in performance relative to teams' season averages.
The data source for this article is sports-reference.com/cbb. Data was compiled and analyzed by ELDORADO. All charts and graphics herein were created by ELDORADO.
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co