NEW: The Dome Effect Is A Myth
A shorter, sweeter, up-do-date review
VIDEO: The Dome Effect Is A Myth
Released March 29 on YouTube!
A shorter, sweeter, up-do-date review
VIDEO: The Dome Effect Is A Myth
Released March 29 on YouTube!
Is College Basketball's 'Dome Effect' Real?
Do NCAA Tournament Teams Shoot Poorly in Big Domed Football Stadiums?
MAR 16 2016
Part I - Part II - Part III - Part IV - Part V
Do NCAA Tournament Teams Shoot Poorly in Big Domed Football Stadiums?
MAR 16 2016
Part I - Part II - Part III - Part IV - Part V
I wrote a condensed version of this for FiveThirtyEight: The Dome Effect Isn't Real; The NRG Effect Is Complicated
I. Introduction
On April 1, 1996, Tony Delk and the Kentucky Wildcats defeated John Wallace and the Syracuse Orange[1] in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship game before a crowd of 19,229 at Continental Airlines Arena in East Rutherford, New Jersey. It was the last time a Final Four was held in a basketball-specific arena.
From 1997 through 2008, the Final Four and a host of regionals were played in domed stadiums – all but one in football stadiums[2] – with the court laid in one corner or end zone and temporary bleachers set up along one side of the floor. Quirky as it may seem, the setup enabled forty and fifty thousand-plus fans to witness the NCAA tournament’s biggest games.
In March 2008, the NCAA debuted a new stadium configuration at the Midwest Regionals in Detroit (Ford Field) and South Regionals in Houston (Reliant Stadium). Instead of laying the court in an end zone, the NCAA put it in the center of the stadium, atop the football field’s 50-yard line, allowing for capacity crowds of seventy thousand or more. The setup has been used at every Final Four and four more regionals since 2009.
Since then, players, coaches, pundits, and fans have speculated that teams shoot poorly in the new and cavernous dome environments, as shooters are forced to adjust to distant and unfamiliar backdrops behind each hoop. The most (in)famous example is the 2011 national championship game at Reliant (now NRG Stadium), in which Butler shot 12-of-64 (18.8%) from the field and fell to Connecticut, 53-41. Other semi-famous examples exist as well.
The phenomenon has been dubbed the “dome effect”. But is it real? Let’s explore.
Next: How do teams perform in different NCAA tournament venue types?
On April 1, 1996, Tony Delk and the Kentucky Wildcats defeated John Wallace and the Syracuse Orange[1] in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship game before a crowd of 19,229 at Continental Airlines Arena in East Rutherford, New Jersey. It was the last time a Final Four was held in a basketball-specific arena.
From 1997 through 2008, the Final Four and a host of regionals were played in domed stadiums – all but one in football stadiums[2] – with the court laid in one corner or end zone and temporary bleachers set up along one side of the floor. Quirky as it may seem, the setup enabled forty and fifty thousand-plus fans to witness the NCAA tournament’s biggest games.
In March 2008, the NCAA debuted a new stadium configuration at the Midwest Regionals in Detroit (Ford Field) and South Regionals in Houston (Reliant Stadium). Instead of laying the court in an end zone, the NCAA put it in the center of the stadium, atop the football field’s 50-yard line, allowing for capacity crowds of seventy thousand or more. The setup has been used at every Final Four and four more regionals since 2009.
Since then, players, coaches, pundits, and fans have speculated that teams shoot poorly in the new and cavernous dome environments, as shooters are forced to adjust to distant and unfamiliar backdrops behind each hoop. The most (in)famous example is the 2011 national championship game at Reliant (now NRG Stadium), in which Butler shot 12-of-64 (18.8%) from the field and fell to Connecticut, 53-41. Other semi-famous examples exist as well.
The phenomenon has been dubbed the “dome effect”. But is it real? Let’s explore.
Next: How do teams perform in different NCAA tournament venue types?
I. Introduction
II. How do teams perform in different NCAA tournament venue types?
III. How does that performance compare to their season averages?
IV. Team offense and opponent defense matter - venue type does not
V. What about specific venues and this year's Final Four at NRG Stadium?
II. How do teams perform in different NCAA tournament venue types?
III. How does that performance compare to their season averages?
IV. Team offense and opponent defense matter - venue type does not
V. What about specific venues and this year's Final Four at NRG Stadium?
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Methodology
This analysis uses True Shooting % and average performance, weighting each game equally regardless of how many shots were taken. For FiveThirtyEight and my 2017 update, I used Effective FG% and aggregate performance, adding up all shots taken and made and calculating shooting percentages (shots equally weighted). The takeaways are the same with either methodology. See Part V for a postscript on further reading, overtime, defensive metrics, and how I calculated changes in performance relative to teams' season averages.
This analysis uses True Shooting % and average performance, weighting each game equally regardless of how many shots were taken. For FiveThirtyEight and my 2017 update, I used Effective FG% and aggregate performance, adding up all shots taken and made and calculating shooting percentages (shots equally weighted). The takeaways are the same with either methodology. See Part V for a postscript on further reading, overtime, defensive metrics, and how I calculated changes in performance relative to teams' season averages.
Footnotes
[1] Then (and until 2004) known as the Orangemen
[2] The 1999 Final Four was held in a domed baseball stadium (Tropicana Field)
[1] Then (and until 2004) known as the Orangemen
[2] The 1999 Final Four was held in a domed baseball stadium (Tropicana Field)
The data source for this article is sports-reference.com/cbb. Data was compiled and analyzed by ELDORADO. All charts and graphics herein were created by ELDORADO.
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co